Trump Recession?

[Luckyone]

Nobel Prize-Winning Economist Warns of Trump Recession

A Nobel Prize-winning economist has told Newsweek that President Trump's trade policies and the ambiguity surrounding their implementation are pushing America toward an economic downturn.

The warning came from James Heckman, a professor of economics at the University of Chicago, who said: "The fear of tariffs and the uncertainty about their magnitude and duration is causing the recession."

Trump's trade math baffles economists It is "idiotic and flawed"​

Trade economists were scratching their heads on Thursday at the formula used by the White House to measure trade imbalances and inflict punishment on all its global trading partners.

Handed a chart in the White House Rose Garden, US President Donald Trump presented the rationale for how his administration would impose reciprocal tariffs on partners ranging from major powers like China and Europe to the smallest nations.

The figures presented bear little resemblance to actual tariff levels, however. "This is to economics what creationism is to biology, astrology is to astronomy," former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers posted on X.

and on and on and more.........

What this all clearly shows

 

[Meister]

Everyone has a right to their opinion, even Heckman.
Too many intangibles for any certainty. just sayin'

 

[Rambunctious]

The prize winning economists were wrong in 2016 and 2017 and 2018....

 

[excalibur]

We've been in Biden's stagflation since 2023.

Watch and see if a poor first quarter GDP number tries to be blamed on Trump. LOL

 

[Luckyone]

The prize winning economists were wrong in 2016 and 2017 and 2018....

Really? Who said so, Trump?

Here is reality

Clearly, the Trump administration’s trade policies were not successful. American deficits with China and the rest of the world were higher last year than they had been in over a decade. And while it is a little unfair to consider 2020 data without recognizing the peculiar economic distortions created by the coronavirus pandemic, U.S. trade and current account deficits were much higher during Trump’s presidency than they had been under former president Barack Obama.

and another

The Total Cost of U.S. Tariffs - AAF​

May 10, 2022 — The president's tariffs apply to approximately $277.5 billion of imports, increasing annual consumer costs by $51 billion.

But of course, you believe Trump, don't you

Tariffs Work — and President Trump's First Term Proves It​

The White House (.gov)
https://www.whitehouse.gov › News › Articles

 

[BluesLegend]

I'm telling you right now, when the Trump economy takes off like a Musk rocket ship all these Dem DOOM and GLOOMERS will have to cook up another virus with China.

 

[Luckyone]

Th

We've been in Biden's stagflation since 2023.

Watch and see if a poor first quarter GDP number tries to be blamed on Trump. LOL

The data and statistics that are available do not support your statement

Perhaps you could supply data and statistics (not just words) that support your statement?

 

[conserveguy877]

We are trying to recover from the Biden Depression. It has begun with egg and gas prices beginning to drop.

 

[0311]

Nobel Prize-Winning Economist Warns of Trump Recession

A Nobel Prize-winning economist has told Newsweek that President Trump's trade policies and the ambiguity surrounding their implementation are pushing America toward an economic downturn.

The warning came from James Heckman, a professor of economics at the University of Chicago, who said: "The fear of tariffs and the uncertainty about their magnitude and duration is causing the recession."

Trump's trade math baffles economists It is "idiotic and flawed"​

Trade economists were scratching their heads on Thursday at the formula used by the White House to measure trade imbalances and inflict punishment on all its global trading partners.

Handed a chart in the White House Rose Garden, US President Donald Trump presented the rationale for how his administration would impose reciprocal tariffs on partners ranging from major powers like China and Europe to the smallest nations.

The figures presented bear little resemblance to actual tariff levels, however. "This is to economics what creationism is to biology, astrology is to astronomy," former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers posted on X.

and on and on and more.........

View attachment 1096491

What this all clearly shows

View attachment 1096493

View attachment 1096494

He has set this country on the road a very nasty recession. He wants wreck the world economy, all in the name of vengeance.

 

[DonGlock26]

Nobel Prize-Winning Economist Warns of Trump Recession

A Nobel Prize-winning economist has told Newsweek that President Trump's trade policies and the ambiguity surrounding their implementation are pushing America toward an economic downturn.

The warning came from James Heckman, a professor of economics at the University of Chicago, who said: "The fear of tariffs and the uncertainty about their magnitude and duration is causing the recession."

Trump's trade math baffles economists It is "idiotic and flawed"​

Trade economists were scratching their heads on Thursday at the formula used by the White House to measure trade imbalances and inflict punishment on all its global trading partners.

Handed a chart in the White House Rose Garden, US President Donald Trump presented the rationale for how his administration would impose reciprocal tariffs on partners ranging from major powers like China and Europe to the smallest nations.

The figures presented bear little resemblance to actual tariff levels, however. "This is to economics what creationism is to biology, astrology is to astronomy," former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers posted on X.

and on and on and more.........

View attachment 1096491

What this all clearly shows

View attachment 1096493

View attachment 1096494

This is the source:


"Heckman is noted for his contributions to selection bias and self-selection analysis, especially Heckman correction, which earned him the Nobel Prize in Economics. He is also well known for his empirical research in labor economics, particularly regarding the efficacy of early childhood education programs.

His work has been devoted to the development of a scientific basis for economic policy evaluation, with special emphasis on models of individuals and disaggregated groups, and the problems and possibilities created by heterogeneity, diversity, and unobserved counterfactual states. He developed a body of new econometric tools that address these issues. His research has given policymakers important new insights into areas such as education, jobtraining, the importance of accounting for general equilibrium in the analysis of labor markets, anti-discrimination law, and civil rights. He demonstrated a strong causal effect of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 in promoting African-American economic progress. He has recently demonstrated that the high school dropout rate is increasing in the US. He has studied the economic benefits of sorting in the labor market, the ineffectiveness of active labor market programs, and the economic returns to education.

His recent research focuses on inequality, human development and lifecycle skill formation, with a special emphasis on the economics of early childhood education. He is currently conducting new social experiments on early childhood interventions and reanalyzing old experiments. He is also studying the emergence of the underclass in the US and Western Europe. For example, he showed that a high IQ only improved an individual's chances of financial success by 1 or 2%.[12] Instead, "conscientiousness," or "diligence, perseverance and self-discipline," are what led to financial success.[12]

In the early 1990s, his pioneering research, on the outcomes of people who obtain the GED certificate, received national attention.

Heckman has published over 300 articles and several books. His books include Inequality in America: What Role for Human Capital Policy? (with Alan Krueger); Evaluating Human Capital Policy, Law, and Employment: Lessons from Latin America and the Caribbean (with Carmen Pages); the Handbook of Econometrics, volumes 5, 6A, and 6B (edited with Edward Leamer); Global Perspectives on the Rule of Law, (edited with R. Nelson and L. Cabatingan); and The Myth of Achievement Tests: The GED and the Role of Character in American Life (with John Eric Humphries and Tim Kautz).

He is currently co-editor of the Journal of Political Economy. He is also a member of the National Academy of Sciences (USA) and the American Philosophical Society.[13] He is a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the Econometric Society (of which he is also former president), the Society of Labor Economics, the American Statistical Association, and the International Statistical Institute."

James Heckman - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

His research is heavily geared towards progressive social policy. Newsweek choosing him reminds me of Democrats' judge shopping.

 

[mudwhistle]

We've been in Biden's stagflation since 2023.

Watch and see if a poor first quarter GDP number tries to be blamed on Trump. LOL

Bye-dumb spent the last months of his presiduncy sabotaging Trump.
They've been laying all of these landmines to **** him over.

Dummcraps spend all of their time ******* everything up, and when the Republican tries to fix it, they spend all of their time bitching about how it wasn't fixed the second he was sworn in.

We've been dealing with a horrible economy for the last 4 years, and only now the libroids start noticing it.

 

[DonGlock26]

Bye-dumb spent the last months of his presiduncy sabotaging Trump.
They've been laying all of these landmines to **** him over.

Dummcraps spend all of their time ******* everything up, and when the Republican tries to fix it, they spend all of their time bitching about how it wasn't fixed the second he was sworn in.

We've been dealing with a horrible economy for the last 4 years, and only now the libroids start noticing it.

 

[DonGlock26]

Then there are fervent Trump supporters like DonGlock26 that ask the following:

What if, the market reaches record highs in three months? Will you become a Trump supporter?

and when I respond with this::



He gives this response, which is no response:

Not necessarily. I'm taking a long view on his program. You are the one who is looking at a day or two of stock market activity and panicking. I choose three months because it was a short enough period of time for you to understand.

 

[Luckyone]

This is the source:


"Heckman is noted for his contributions to selection bias and self-selection analysis, especially Heckman correction, which earned him the Nobel Prize in Economics. He is also well known for his empirical research in labor economics, particularly regarding the efficacy of early childhood education programs.

His work has been devoted to the development of a scientific basis for economic policy evaluation, with special emphasis on models of individuals and disaggregated groups, and the problems and possibilities created by heterogeneity, diversity, and unobserved counterfactual states. He developed a body of new econometric tools that address these issues. His research has given policymakers important new insights into areas such as education, jobtraining, the importance of accounting for general equilibrium in the analysis of labor markets, anti-discrimination law, and civil rights. He demonstrated a strong causal effect of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 in promoting African-American economic progress. He has recently demonstrated that the high school dropout rate is increasing in the US. He has studied the economic benefits of sorting in the labor market, the ineffectiveness of active labor market programs, and the economic returns to education.

His recent research focuses on inequality, human development and lifecycle skill formation, with a special emphasis on the economics of early childhood education. He is currently conducting new social experiments on early childhood interventions and reanalyzing old experiments. He is also studying the emergence of the underclass in the US and Western Europe. For example, he showed that a high IQ only improved an individual's chances of financial success by 1 or 2%.[12] Instead, "conscientiousness," or "diligence, perseverance and self-discipline," are what led to financial success.[12]

In the early 1990s, his pioneering research, on the outcomes of people who obtain the GED certificate, received national attention.

Heckman has published over 300 articles and several books. His books include Inequality in America: What Role for Human Capital Policy? (with Alan Krueger); Evaluating Human Capital Policy, Law, and Employment: Lessons from Latin America and the Caribbean (with Carmen Pages); the Handbook of Econometrics, volumes 5, 6A, and 6B (edited with Edward Leamer); Global Perspectives on the Rule of Law, (edited with R. Nelson and L. Cabatingan); and The Myth of Achievement Tests: The GED and the Role of Character in American Life (with John Eric Humphries and Tim Kautz).

He is currently co-editor of the Journal of Political Economy. He is also a member of the National Academy of Sciences (USA) and the American Philosophical Society.[13] He is a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the Econometric Society (of which he is also former president), the Society of Labor Economics, the American Statistical Association, and the International Statistical Institute."

James Heckman - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

His research is heavily geared towards progressive social policy. Newsweek choosing him reminds me of Democrats' judge shopping.

Okay, where are the other articles that show bias for all the other economists that stated the same? I mean, it isn't just one economist. In fact, do you consider JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and the Deutsche Bank (who is the one that lent money to Trump in the year 2000, when no one else would) biased against Trump?

Please take each one of those below and do the same explanation. Prove that I am wrong.

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JPMorgan and other financial institutions are raising their estimates for a global recession to 60% due to the Trump administration's tariffs, which are seen as a significant economic shock.

Here's a more detailed breakdown:

• Increased Recession Risk:
  JPMorgan, a major Wall Street bank, has raised its estimate of a global recession to 60% in 2025, up from 40% previously.
  
  
• Trump's Tariffs as a Catalyst:
  The main driver for this increase is the Trump administration's recent announcement of a sweeping new tariff regime, which is seen as a major economic shock.
  
  
• Bruce Kasman's Perspective:
  Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan's chief economist, stated that disruptive U.S. policies have been recognized as the biggest risk to the global outlook all year, and the latest news reinforces those fears.
  
  
• Economic Impact:
  The tariffs are expected to amount to a 20 percentage point increase in U.S. tariff rates, comparable to the largest U.S. tax rise since 1968, according to JPMorgan analysts.
  
  
• Potential Consequences:
  The tariffs could lead to retaliatory actions from other countries, weakening business sentiment in the U.S., and disrupting global supply chains.
  
  
• Other Perspectives:
  Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital, has also expressed a similar view, stating that the odds of a US recession this year are increasing to 60%.
  
  
• CNBC CFO Council Survey:
  A majority of chief financial officers responding to the quarterly CNBC CFO Council Survey expect a recession in the second half of 2025.
  
  
• Deutsche Bank Survey:
  A Deutsche Bank survey suggests the probability of a recession is approaching 50%, with bond expert Jeffrey Gundlach at DoubleLine Capital seeing the chances at 50% to 60%.
  
  
• Goldman Sachs:
  Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a U.S. recession to 35%, up from 20%, citing surging tariffs as a threat to growth.
  
  

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

Nobel Prize-Winning Economist Warns of Trump Recession

A Nobel Prize-winning economist has told Newsweek that President Trump's trade policies and the ambiguity surrounding their implementation are pushing America toward an economic downturn.

The warning came from James Heckman, a professor of economics at the University of Chicago, who said: "The fear of tariffs and the uncertainty about their magnitude and duration is causing the recession."

Trump's trade math baffles economists It is "idiotic and flawed"​

Trade economists were scratching their heads on Thursday at the formula used by the White House to measure trade imbalances and inflict punishment on all its global trading partners.

Handed a chart in the White House Rose Garden, US President Donald Trump presented the rationale for how his administration would impose reciprocal tariffs on partners ranging from major powers like China and Europe to the smallest nations.

The figures presented bear little resemblance to actual tariff levels, however. "This is to economics what creationism is to biology, astrology is to astronomy," former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers posted on X.

and on and on and more.........

View attachment 1096491

What this all clearly shows

View attachment 1096493

View attachment 1096494

A second Trump recession.

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

Recession Day is coming and it will be anything but librating.

 

[Missouri_Mike]

Nobel Prize-Winning Economist Warns of Trump Recession

A Nobel Prize-winning economist has told Newsweek that President Trump's trade policies and the ambiguity surrounding their implementation are pushing America toward an economic downturn.

The warning came from James Heckman, a professor of economics at the University of Chicago, who said: "The fear of tariffs and the uncertainty about their magnitude and duration is causing the recession."

Trump's trade math baffles economists It is "idiotic and flawed"​

Trade economists were scratching their heads on Thursday at the formula used by the White House to measure trade imbalances and inflict punishment on all its global trading partners.

Handed a chart in the White House Rose Garden, US President Donald Trump presented the rationale for how his administration would impose reciprocal tariffs on partners ranging from major powers like China and Europe to the smallest nations.

The figures presented bear little resemblance to actual tariff levels, however. "This is to economics what creationism is to biology, astrology is to astronomy," former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers posted on X.

and on and on and more.........

View attachment 1096491

What this all clearly shows

View attachment 1096493

View attachment 1096494

We heard this shit in 2016. The opposite happened. You people are ******* idiots.

 

[0311]

We heard this shit in 2016. The opposite happened. You people are ******* idiots.

JP Morgan Raises Recession Risk To 60%.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/trump-tariffs-trade-war-stock-market-04-03-2025/card/jpmorgan-raises-recession-risk-to-60--clWSymXLSyvXZ7fPu6g6?mod=WSJ_home_supertoppermiddle_lctimeline

A global recession is more likely to happen than not this year, thanks to Wednesday's tariff broadside from the U.S.

That's the opinion of JPMorgan analysts who raised their forecast to 60% Thursday. That's up from 40% before President Trump's Wednesday afternoon announcements sent markets tumbling.
The administration's plans will likely amount to a 20 percentage point increase in U.S. tariff rates, the firm said. The last increase that large, in 1968, was followed by recession, economists led by Bruce Kasman said.

Analysts said retaliatory tariffs by other countries, weakening business sentiment in the U.S. and supply chain disruptions will make things worse. Jeep maker Stellantis has already halted production at its auto assembly factories in Mexico and Canada.

A scenario where the U.S. enters a recession but the rest of the world is spared is also possible, the firm said, but less likely.

The WSJ is NOT a liberal rag. Read it, the Recession is coming.

 

[Missouri_Mike]

JP Morgan Raises Recession Risk To 60%.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/trump-tariffs-trade-war-stock-market-04-03-2025/card/jpmorgan-raises-recession-risk-to-60--clWSymXLSyvXZ7fPu6g6?mod=WSJ_home_supertoppermiddle_lctimeline

A global recession is more likely to happen than not this year, thanks to Wednesday's tariff broadside from the U.S.

That's the opinion of JPMorgan analysts who raised their forecast to 60% Thursday. That's up from 40% before President Trump's Wednesday afternoon announcements sent markets tumbling.
The administration's plans will likely amount to a 20 percentage point increase in U.S. tariff rates, the firm said. The last increase that large, in 1968, was followed by recession, economists led by Bruce Kasman said.

Analysts said retaliatory tariffs by other countries, weakening business sentiment in the U.S. and supply chain disruptions will make things worse. Jeep maker Stellantis has already halted production at its auto assembly factories in Mexico and Canada.

A scenario where the U.S. enters a recession but the rest of the world is spared is also possible, the firm said, but less likely.

The WSJ is NOT a liberal rag. Read it, the Recession is coming.

Oh no, I may not get to buy my Mexican made Jeep. How will I ever get by.

 

[ThisIsMe]

Then there are fervent Trump supporters like DonGlock26 that ask the following:

What if, the market reaches record highs in three months? Will you become a Trump supporter?

and when I respond with this::



He gives this response, which is no response:

Not necessarily. I'm taking a long view on his program. You are the one who is looking at a day or two of stock market activity and panicking. I choose three months because it was a short enough period of time for you to understand.

Do you have a link to this conversation between you and Mr glock?