Trafalgar nailed it on 2016. They nailed it in 2018. Are they going to nail it in 2020? I think so.
They have a very good methodology with 5 main tenets. They use large sample sizes- always greater than 1000 people. They poll LIKELY VOTERS not just registered. They use many formats- live calls, automated calls, texts, emails, other digital platforms. They keep the interview short - no more than 3 minutes to complete. They account for the "Shy voter" by asking - who do you think your neighbor is voting for?
It will be interesting to watch- they have Trump with a 2 in 3 chance of winning again.
They have a very good methodology with 5 main tenets. They use large sample sizes- always greater than 1000 people. They poll LIKELY VOTERS not just registered. They use many formats- live calls, automated calls, texts, emails, other digital platforms. They keep the interview short - no more than 3 minutes to complete. They account for the "Shy voter" by asking - who do you think your neighbor is voting for?
It will be interesting to watch- they have Trump with a 2 in 3 chance of winning again.
