Trenberth Debunks Himself

[SSDD]

THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: Trenberth debunks himself: The oceans didn't eat the global warming 'missing heat'

Kevin "it's a travesty!" Trenberth has published a new paper today in the Journal of Climate, which shows that the rate of change of global ocean heat content has decreased since ~2001, contradicting his prior claim that the 'pause' of global warming can be explained by an increase in the rate of ocean 'missing heat' uptake.

Fig 5 from Trenberth's new paper showing the rate of change in global ocean heat content decreased since ~2001 throughout the 'pause'

Trenberth's new paper claims the Sun is responsible for 15% of climate change on decadal timescales, but his analysis conveniently ignores hundreds of peer-reviewed published papers finding solar amplification mechanisms including via clouds and ENSO that alone can account for 95% of climate change over the past 400 years.

The paper can be read HERE

 

[CrusaderFrank]

AGWCult responds, er, just as predicted by our models

yeah, that's the ticket!

 

[CrusaderFrank]

The Warming didn't disappear, it just went to a higher level of consciousness that Deniers can't access

 

[flacaltenn]

Could be interesting.. It's been too quiet on the "ocean munching" front..

That plot is rates of change of heat content for the GLOBE --- not just the oceans.. So I have to read the paper to get a bearing.. The rate of change is what shows you the FORCING for any heat storage..

 

[CrusaderFrank]

700m? Wait, we meant 7,000m!

 

[SSDD]

Can't help but notice that those trenberth fans who have been harping on increasing ocean heat content have not shown up to say that trenberth didn't mean it.

 

[ScienceRocks]

If the ocean didn't suck the warmth up= global warming really is bs. I'll admit it.

Something is fucked up with the way they're figuring for co2.

 

[ScienceRocks]

I think this chart shows both 700 meters and total depth.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

If the ocean didn't suck the warmth up= global warming really is bs. I'll admit it.

Something is fucked up with the way they're figuring for co2.

Welcome!

 

[Abraham3]

Hmm... the conclusions of BTK were that the heat formerly warming the surface may have begun moving to the DEEP ocean, not the ocean above 700 m.

As to your hundreds of peer reviewed papers showing amplifications of solar warming - how about a few links? And maybe some basic physics explaining how passive mechanisms can create a net increase in energy flux. The TSI at the top of the atmosphere is inadequate to cause the warming we've experienced.

 

[SwimExpert]

The Warming didn't disappear, it just went to a higher level of consciousness that Deniers can't access

It's like I keep saying. It's the Thetans.

 

[SwimExpert]

If the ocean didn't suck the warmth up= global warming really is bs. I'll admit it.

Something is fucked up with the way they're figuring for co2.

See, this is the problem with you guys. Always overreacting to every little jot and tittle.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Hmm... the conclusions of BTK were that the heat formerly warming the surface may have begun moving to the DEEP ocean, not the ocean above 700 m.

As to your hundreds of peer reviewed papers showing amplifications of solar warming - how about a few links. And maybe some basic physics explaining how passive mechanisms can create a net increase in energy flux. The TSI at the top of the atmosphere is inadequate to cause the warming we've experience.

What warming?

 

[Abraham3]

The warming displayed in the graphic from Balmaseda, Trenberth and Kalllen 2013 that you've likely seen here 20-30 times.

 

[SSDD]

Hmm... the conclusions of BTK were that the heat formerly warming the surface may have begun moving to the DEEP ocean, not the ocean above 700 m.

As to your hundreds of peer reviewed papers showing amplifications of solar warming - how about a few links. And maybe some basic physics explaining how passive mechanisms can create a net increase in energy flux. The TSI at the top of the atmosphere is inadequate to cause the warming we've experience.

Sure, how many do you wan?. There were more than 70 published in 2013 alone, Here are a few, if you want more, just ask. If you really aren't aware of the sheer volume of published science finding that the sun is what drives our climate, then you aren't nearly as informed as you like to think you are.

THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: New paper finds another amplification mechanism by which the Sun controls climate

Possible effects of atmospheric teleconnections and solar variability on tropospheric and stratospheric temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere

A new paper published in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics finds more evidence of solar amplification mechanisms by which the Sun controls climate change. According to the authors, changes in solar activity affect cosmic rays [Svensmark et al] and the distribution of solar energy between different layers of the atmosphere [stratosphere and troposphere]. This then results in third order effects upon natural atmospheric oscillations such as the Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Scandinavian Pattern, and the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO). These atmospheric oscillations in turn have global effects upon climate change.

Contrary to claims of climate alarmists, the authors show that between 1960 to 2003 the trend of solar geomagnetic activity was up, which in turn reduced cosmic rays and cloud formation, leading to the well-known "global brightening" of the latter 20th century, amplification of solar energy at the Earth surface and warming, and change in energy distribution with more heat in the troposphere and less in the stratosphere. Global warming alarmists claim the pattern of increasing tropospheric and decreasing stratospheric temperatures is a fingerprint of man-made global warming, but this paper finds solar amplification mechanisms can account for this same pattern instead.

THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: Paper finds solar amplification mechanism via clouds at the South Pole, amplifies surface solar irradiance up to 24 times

ACP - Abstract - Solar irradiance at the earth's surface: long-term behavior observed at the South Pole

A paper published in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics finds evidence of a solar amplification mechanism via cloud cover at the South Pole. According to the authors, at solar cycle minimums, cloud cover increases which further decreases solar radiation reaching the surface of the South Pole by 1.8% - 2.4%, depending on the wavelength, and vice-versa for solar cycle maximums. This begs the question: Could the current record high Antarctic sea ice extent be related to the current weakest solar cycle in 100 years rather than AGW?

The paper adds to many other peer-reviewed papers describing solar amplification mechanisms by which tiny 0.1% changes of total solar irradiance can be amplified to produce large effects on climate. According to this paper, 0.1% changes in solar irradiation over solar cycles are amplified by a factor of 18 to 24 times at the surface of the South Pole, dependent upon wavelength.


THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: New paper finds another amplification mechanism by which the Sun controls climate

Speleothem based 1000-year high resolution record of Indian monsoon variability during the last deglaciation

A new paper published in Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology finds another solar amplification mechanism by which tiny changes in solar activity during 11-12 year solar cycles have a "strong" influence on the Indian Summer Monsoon [ISM]. The ISM in turn profoundly affects the south Asian climate, and interacts with other global atmospheric oscillations.


THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: New paper finds solar UV varies up to 100% during solar cycles, confirms solar amplification mechanism




A paper published today in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics notes that solar UV radiation can vary up to 100% during solar cycles, that it is "well accepted" these large changes in UV significantly affect stratospheric ozone production, and thereby act as a solar amplification mechanism on temperatures.

THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: New paper finds large changes in solar UV influence climate change

ACP - Abstract - Recent variability of the solar spectral irradiance and its impact on climate modelling

paper published today in Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics reviews recent satellite data finding that variations in solar UV within solar cycles are up to 6 times greater than previously believed, and that these variations have a significant influence upon the atmosphere and regional climate change. The authors also find that current models don't reproduce these observations. The IPCC dismisses the role of the Sun in climate change by only considering small changes in total solar irradiance [TSI], while ignoring amplification mechanisms such as the large changes in solar UV within and between solar cycles.

According to the authors, "recent measurements by the SORCE (SOlar Radiation and Climate Experiment) satellite suggest a significantly stronger variability in the ultraviolet (UV) spectral range and changes in the visible and near-infrared (NIR) bands in anti-phase with the solar cycle. A number of recent chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations have shown that this might have significant implications on the Earth's atmosphere." Solar spectral irradiance "changes influence the Earth's atmosphere, both directly, through changes in shortwave (SW) heating and therefore, temperature and ozone distributions in the stratosphere, and indirectly, through dynamical feedbacks."


THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: New paper finds the Sun controls the hydrological cycle of southern South America

Are southern South American Rivers linked to the solar variability? - Compagnucci - 2013 - International Journal of Climatology - Wiley Online Library

A paper published today in the International Journal of Climatology finds robust evidence that solar activity controlled the hydrological cycle in southern South America from the early 1900s to 2011. The authors find high river discharges lag solar maxima by about 2 years, and low discharges lag solar minima by about 2 years. According to the paper, "Previous studies have shown a close relationship between the subtropical Argentinean Andean Rivers and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as well as a solar influence on the ENSO variability. We suggest that El Niño events occurring a few years after solar maxima could explain the connection."


THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: New paper supports planetary theory of solar variation

http://people.duke.edu/~ns2002/pdf/10.1007_s10509-013-1558-3.pdf

A new paper by Dr. Nicola Scafetta & Dr. Richard Willson, published in Astrophysics & Space Science, finds additional evidence supporting the planetary theory of solar variation, that gravitational effects from the planets explain solar cycles. Prior analysis has shown that planetary harmonics correlate with solar activity and subsequent climate change via a variety of solar amplification mechanisms.


THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: New paper finds another amplification mechanism by which the Sun controls climate

Holocene flood frequency across the Central Alps ? solar forcing and evidence for variations in North Atlantic atmospheric circulation

A paper published today in Quaternary Science Reviews reconstructs climate of the central Alps over the past 10,000 years and finds precipitation and floods were driven by changes in solar activity. The authors propose variations in solar activity and insolation cause widening and shrinking of the Hadley cell, and influence on the North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO] and Intertropical Convergence Zone [ITCZ]. The paper adds to many other peer-reviewed publications finding solar amplification mechanisms by which small changes in solar activity have large effects on climate.

The authors also find floods and heavy precipitation were more common during cold periods such as the Little Ice Age than during warm periods such as the Medieval Warm Period, the opposite of claims that warming increases precipitation and floods from increased atmospheric water vapor.

THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: New paper finds multiple amplification mechanisms by which the Sun controls climate

The interplanetary magnetic field influences mid-latitude surface atmospheric pressure - Abstract - Environmental Research Letters - IOPscience

A new paper published in Environmental Research Letters finds multiple solar amplification mechanisms by which small changes in the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field [IMF] have significant global effects upon atmospheric pressures, the jet stream, weather & climate patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO], storm tracks, Eurasian winter temperatures, and the breakup of Arctic sea ice.
The role of the oceans in shaping the tropospheric response to the 11 year solar cycle

Observational data indicate a weakening and poleward shift of the subtropical tropospheric jets in the maximum phase of the 11 year solar cycle, commonly explained in terms of a direct "top-down" propagation of solar signals from the stratosphere to the troposphere. We here demonstrate possible linkages to oceanic variability, instead. The observed response of the jets is qualitatively and quantitatively reproduced in an ensemble of simulations with a global model forced only at the lower boundary by the observed sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations, while keeping solar cycle forcing constant. The twentieth century reanalysis, in which only surface observations are assimilated, is characterized by a similar shift of the jets. These findings suggest that changes at the ocean surface could contribute considerably to the poleward shift of the subtropical tropospheric jets, although a top-down influence on the oceans and hence indirectly on the jets cannot be excluded.


A lagged response to the 11 year solar cycle in observed winter Atlantic/European weather patterns

The surface response to 11 year solar cycle variations is investigated by analyzing the long-term mean sea level pressure and sea surface temperature observations for the period 1870-2010. The analysis reveals a statistically significant 11 year solar signal over Europe, and the North Atlantic provided that the data are lagged by a few years. The delayed signal resembles the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) following a solar maximum. The corresponding sea surface temperature response is consistent with this. A similar analysis is performed on long-term climate simulations from a coupled ocean-atmosphere version of the Hadley Centre model that has an extended upper lid so that influences of solar variability via the stratosphere are well resolved. The model reproduces the positive NAO signal over the Atlantic/European sector, but the lag of the surface response is not well reproduced. Possible mechanisms for the lagged nature of the observed response are discussed.


Influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, El Nino-Southern Oscillation and solar forcing on climate and primary productivity changes in the northeast Pacific

Evidence of 11-year Schwabe solar sunspot cycles, El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) were detected in an annual record of diatomaceous laminated sediments from anoxic Effingham Inlet, Vancouver Island, British Columbia. Radiometric dating and counting of annual varves dates the sediments from AD 1947-1993. Intact sediment slabs were X-rayed for sediment structure (lamina thickness and composition based on gray-scale), and subsamples were examined for diatom abundances and for grain size. Wavelet analysis reveals the presence of c. 2-3, 4.5, 7 and 9-12 year cycles in the diatom record and an c. 11-13 year record in the sedimentary varve thickness record. These cycle lengths suggest that both ENSO and the sunspot cycle had an influence on primary productivity and sedimentation patterns.


Terrestrial ground temperature variations in relation to solar magnetic variability, including the present Schwabe cycle

We study the influence of solar activity on climate by investigating the relation between the long-term components of the total magnetic fluxes of both the equatorial and polar fields of the sun and the average terrestrial ground temperature. This is done for the period 1610 (beginning of systematic sunspot observations) till present with an extrapolation to 2015. It is found that from 1610 till about the first half of the 20th century the variation of the long-term average terrestrial ground temperatures is chiefly due to the variation of solar activity, with seemingly random, non-solar residuals. Around 2007, after the Grand Maximum of the 20th century, solar activity, after having gone through a remarkable transition period (c. 2005 to c. 2010), entered into another Grand Episode. That Episode started with the present solar cycle, in shape comparable to the equally weak Schwabe cycle #14. The transition period, in combination with the present low Schwabe cycle causes that the solar contribution to the total terrestrial temperature variation is small during the on-going decade. It results in a slowing down of the rise of temperature after c. 2005.


The role of the Sun in atmosphere-ocean coupling

An overview of the processes involved in determining the Sun''s influence on climate is presented in the form of a flow chart. Evidence and hypotheses concerning the combined influences of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and the Solar Cycle on the Hadley and Walker circulations are discussed in the context of atmosphere-ocean coupling, focussing on the Pacific region. It is shown that the Sun plays a crucial role in ocean-atmosphere coupling but that this coupling appears to be disturbed during the latter half of the 20th century, probably related to climate change. The identification of a solar influence can lead to improved skill in prediction so as to better inform communities to address/mitigate some of the crucial issues that are associated with climate change.


Reconciliation of modeled climate responses to spectral solar forcing

The SIM (Spectral Irradiance Monitor) on SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) provides more spectrally complete daily SSI (spectral solar irradiance) measurements than ever before, allowing us to explore chemical and physical processes in the Earth's ocean and atmosphere system. However, the newly observed SSI instigated controversies in the Sun-climate community on whether the SIM-observed trends are true solar variations and on whether climate responses are in phase or out of phase with solar forcing. In this study, we focus on resolving two apparently contradictory results published on possible temperature responses to SIM-derived solar forcing. When applying extreme scenarios of SIM-based spectral solar forcing in a radiative-convective model (RCM), we find that some apparently contradictory results can be explained by the different methods used to apply the SIM SSI data. It is clear that accurate SSI data are essential for accurate climate simulations and that climate modelers need to take care how they apply these data.

 

[Abraham3]

I have to make dinner. I got through the first two. Those are really, really weak. Read them yourself.

 

[westwall]

I have to make dinner. I got through the first two. Those are really, really weak. Read them yourself.

Compared to the stuff you guys post they are Nobel worthy.

 

[SSDD]

I have to make dinner. I got through the first two. Those are really, really weak. Read them yourself.

Compared to the stuff you guys post they are Nobel worthy.

Amazing huh, his whole position is supported only by failing climate models and he calls my stuff weak. The myopia is incredible. Guess he doesn't grasp the sheer number of papers finding that the sun is a much larger influence on climate than climate science claims....literally hundreds...over 70 were published in 2013 alone. The ocean ate the warming is about as weak as it could possibly get considering that argos would measure the heat on the way down if it were actually happening...

 

[Abraham3]

In both of those papers, the connection to the sun was really conjectural. Let's look at some the actual statements

Highlights
•
The Northern tropospheric temperature correlates with the Scandinavian Pattern.
•
The Northern stratospheric temperature correlates to the Southern Oscillation.
•
The cosmic ray flux might modulate the tropospheric and stratospheric variability.
•
UV effects on tropospheric and stratospheric temperature are not clear.
Abstract
Possible relationships between tropospheric and stratospheric temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere and atmospheric oscillations, solar and geomagnetic activity are described, using correlation analysis. The dependence of correlations on season, solar activity level and phase of the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is also investigated. An important finding is that the variability of the hemispheric tropospheric temperature is well connected to the Scandinavian Pattern, to the Pacific North American teleconnection and less with the North Atlantic Oscillation. There is also a possible link with the Southern Oscillation (SO) for winter. Solar UV and cosmic ray flux might influence tropospheric temperature during warm seasons, solar maximum or QBO West. Significant correlations between the Northern stratospheric temperature and the SO is observed especially during the Eastern phase of QBO and solar minimum. Signatures of geomagnetic variability are seen in the winter stratospheric temperature. The stratospheric temperature correlates with the cosmic ray flux and solar UV at annual level at solar maximum and QBO West. The UV effect at the stratospheric level is less clear than expected. The existence of some correlations between tropospheric/stratospheric temperatures and internal and external parameters under certain climatic circumstances and during different solar cycle phases might help in identifying processes that transfer energy from the Sun to different atmospheric layers and in assessing their role in climate variability.

You call that "Nobel-worthy" ? ? ?

And, pardon the confusion, what I thought were two papers was simply the paper itself and Hockey-Schtick's description of it.

 

[Abraham3]

So the only firm connection those folks found was between the sun and the stratosphere and the QBO West. The stratosphere contains less than 10% of the atmosphere's mass and less than 1% of its water vapor and aerosols. So the actual thermal energy involved in raising its temperature isn't going to do diddly-squat to the rest of the atmosphere and the elephant in the room - the oceans.