basquebromance
Diamond Member
- Nov 26, 2015
- 109,396
- 27,066
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- #1
seems legit. read and decide for yourself
www.nationaljournal.com
excerpts:
If Donald Trump’s momentum stalls in his bid for a presidential comeback, it’s not going to be because of principled opposition from the silent majority of Republicans who privately express their concerns about Trump but largely end up falling in line behind him. It’s going to be because of the former president’s own political blunders, stemming from a disorganized political operation and an undisciplined strategy that could end up tying him to some not-ready-for-prime-time players
The president has been acting like a punch-drunk gambler lately, throwing endorsements around like candy without doing the requisite vetting of his favored picks. Many of his favorites are entrenched incumbents, but he’s also going up against two governors (one sitting, one former), many of the 11 Republican lawmakers up for reelection who voted to impeach him, and other well-regarded challengers embraced by the GOP establishment.
he’s already 0-2 in congressional elections after his endorsed candidate lost in a Texas special election and his favored candidate in Pennsylvania's Senate race dropped out over allegations of domestic abuse
Trump will face his toughest test over a two-week span in springtime, during which three Southern states where he’s tried to impose his will on the Republican electorate will hold primaries. He shocked North Carolina Republicans by backing little-known Rep. Ted Budd over popular former Gov. Pat McCrory. He aggravated the party’s establishment wing by endorsing a right-wing rabble-rouser, Rep. Mo Brooks, who participated in the Jan. 6 rally, against a businesswoman endorsed by the state’s retiring GOP senator, Richard Shelby. And most brazenly, he recruited former Sen. David Perdue into the Georgia gubernatorial race against incumbent Brian Kemp, betting that the defeated senator can win a race litigated on conspiracy theories over election fraud.
It’s worth underscoring how much unnecessary risk Trump is taking on in these races, even though his reward would be full dominance over the Republican Party. If Kemp is able to survive the serious primary threat posed by Perdue, Trump not only looks like a political paper tiger but then will have to choose whether to support Kemp’s reelection or get behind Democrat Stacey Abrams, one of the most despised figures among conservatives. Even if Trump merely withholds political support from Kemp, he could end up burning bridges with his base for indirectly assisting a progressive Democrat in the pivotal race.
A pair of internal polls from both sides demonstrate that while Perdue sees a clear path to victory, he’s far from a lock. Perdue’s survey, conducted by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates from Dec. 7-9, shows him with a 3-point advantage (47-44 percent), which expands to a 14-point lead when voters are informed about Trump’s endorsement. Kemp’s survey, conducted by American Viewpoint between Dec. 1-6, shows Kemp with a 54-22 percent advantage, but that healthy margin shrinks to 4 points when Republicans are informed about Trump’s preference. Kemp and his allies are wasting no time going up with over $1 million in attack ads against Perdue, seeking to define him negatively before he plays the Trump card.
The stakes aren’t quite as high in Alabama and North Carolina, but losses by Trump-endorsed candidates in these primaries would underscore that the establishment is still alive and well—even in the Trumpiest parts of the country. Running against former Shelby chief of staff Katie Britt, Brooks’s predicament has been serious enough that he’s been forced to shake up his campaign team. A new poll conducted by Republican pollster Jim McLaughlin underscored how much the race has tightened: Brooks leads Britt by 7 points, 31-24 percent. That’s a much narrower margin for Brooks than polls conducted earlier this year. Meanwhile, only 19 percent of Alabama Republicans said they would entirely base their vote on Trump’s endorsement
There are some signs that Trump is having second thoughts about supporting Brooks. After meeting the telegenic Britt and her former football-playing husband before his August rally in the state, Trump came away impressed, according to two Republican sources familiar with the meeting, concluding that the couple came out of political central casting. Vice News reported this month that “Trump has reportedly regretted endorsing Brooks, frustrated at his campaign struggles.” Britt ended the third quarter with significantly more campaign cash than the congressman, banking $3.3 million to his $1.8 million. If Britt prevails, the symbolism of an election-denying Trump acolyte losing to a Chamber of Commerce-aligned Republican in Alabama would be awfully significant.
Too big to fail? Trump’s endorsements risk diminishing his political clout
Trump is already 0-2 in congressional endorsements this year, with several other favored candidates struggling to meet expectations.
www.nationaljournal.com
excerpts:
If Donald Trump’s momentum stalls in his bid for a presidential comeback, it’s not going to be because of principled opposition from the silent majority of Republicans who privately express their concerns about Trump but largely end up falling in line behind him. It’s going to be because of the former president’s own political blunders, stemming from a disorganized political operation and an undisciplined strategy that could end up tying him to some not-ready-for-prime-time players
The president has been acting like a punch-drunk gambler lately, throwing endorsements around like candy without doing the requisite vetting of his favored picks. Many of his favorites are entrenched incumbents, but he’s also going up against two governors (one sitting, one former), many of the 11 Republican lawmakers up for reelection who voted to impeach him, and other well-regarded challengers embraced by the GOP establishment.
he’s already 0-2 in congressional elections after his endorsed candidate lost in a Texas special election and his favored candidate in Pennsylvania's Senate race dropped out over allegations of domestic abuse
Trump will face his toughest test over a two-week span in springtime, during which three Southern states where he’s tried to impose his will on the Republican electorate will hold primaries. He shocked North Carolina Republicans by backing little-known Rep. Ted Budd over popular former Gov. Pat McCrory. He aggravated the party’s establishment wing by endorsing a right-wing rabble-rouser, Rep. Mo Brooks, who participated in the Jan. 6 rally, against a businesswoman endorsed by the state’s retiring GOP senator, Richard Shelby. And most brazenly, he recruited former Sen. David Perdue into the Georgia gubernatorial race against incumbent Brian Kemp, betting that the defeated senator can win a race litigated on conspiracy theories over election fraud.
It’s worth underscoring how much unnecessary risk Trump is taking on in these races, even though his reward would be full dominance over the Republican Party. If Kemp is able to survive the serious primary threat posed by Perdue, Trump not only looks like a political paper tiger but then will have to choose whether to support Kemp’s reelection or get behind Democrat Stacey Abrams, one of the most despised figures among conservatives. Even if Trump merely withholds political support from Kemp, he could end up burning bridges with his base for indirectly assisting a progressive Democrat in the pivotal race.
A pair of internal polls from both sides demonstrate that while Perdue sees a clear path to victory, he’s far from a lock. Perdue’s survey, conducted by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates from Dec. 7-9, shows him with a 3-point advantage (47-44 percent), which expands to a 14-point lead when voters are informed about Trump’s endorsement. Kemp’s survey, conducted by American Viewpoint between Dec. 1-6, shows Kemp with a 54-22 percent advantage, but that healthy margin shrinks to 4 points when Republicans are informed about Trump’s preference. Kemp and his allies are wasting no time going up with over $1 million in attack ads against Perdue, seeking to define him negatively before he plays the Trump card.
The stakes aren’t quite as high in Alabama and North Carolina, but losses by Trump-endorsed candidates in these primaries would underscore that the establishment is still alive and well—even in the Trumpiest parts of the country. Running against former Shelby chief of staff Katie Britt, Brooks’s predicament has been serious enough that he’s been forced to shake up his campaign team. A new poll conducted by Republican pollster Jim McLaughlin underscored how much the race has tightened: Brooks leads Britt by 7 points, 31-24 percent. That’s a much narrower margin for Brooks than polls conducted earlier this year. Meanwhile, only 19 percent of Alabama Republicans said they would entirely base their vote on Trump’s endorsement
There are some signs that Trump is having second thoughts about supporting Brooks. After meeting the telegenic Britt and her former football-playing husband before his August rally in the state, Trump came away impressed, according to two Republican sources familiar with the meeting, concluding that the couple came out of political central casting. Vice News reported this month that “Trump has reportedly regretted endorsing Brooks, frustrated at his campaign struggles.” Britt ended the third quarter with significantly more campaign cash than the congressman, banking $3.3 million to his $1.8 million. If Britt prevails, the symbolism of an election-denying Trump acolyte losing to a Chamber of Commerce-aligned Republican in Alabama would be awfully significant.
