Time to short Stocks!

[Paulie]

I think that if someone isn't comfortable in something, one shouldn't invest in it. If Zander isn't comfortable investing in stocks right now, he shouldn't do it. That's the advice I would give anyone about any investment.

I'm just messing with him.

I haven't traded a security in like 8 months.

But that has a lot to do with the fact that I liquidated and invested the money in a business venture.

Although if I had any to play with right now, I probably wouldn't, except for maybe a couple small bets just for fun.

 

[Zander]

The way I see it is this Paulie. I can either follow plan A or plan B:

Plan A - I can continue to do what I have been doing - playing it safe and buying bonds and t-bills that pay a measly 1-2% - and in about 10 years I retire with a portfolio of sufficient size to comfortably replace 100% of my current "spendable" income at a 4% SWR (*spendable income is my income after investments - once I retire I will not need to continue to invest for retirement!! woohoo!! )

OR

Plan B - I can take the risk of investing in a wildly chaotic and volatile stock market and if I am lucky retire 1 or 2 years earlier- or possibly many years later if things go badly. Ouch!!

For me it's a no-brainer - I'll take plan A. I really don't need to take 'undue' risk at this point of my life. If the market drops to a level where I feel comfortable with valuations - I'll gladly jump back in and re-establish my long held "Coffee house portfolio". But until then...I'll just keep earning and saving and enjoying the journey.

 

[william the wie]

GOLD!!!!!!!!!! $1408.00 per ozt & climbing.

WHOA! Cheering is bad.

When something goes this right for me I remember the seven card stud hand where I nailed high Chicago (half the pot for the highest spade in the hole) right at the start. I decided to bluff an open ended three card straight flush. I ended up with high spade, a six card straight flush and almost no money. I like slow steady returns.

 

[Gadawg73]

The way I see it is this Paulie. I can either follow plan A or plan B:

Plan A - I can continue to do what I have been doing - playing it safe and buying bonds and t-bills that pay a measly 1-2% - and in about 10 years I retire with a portfolio of sufficient size to comfortably replace 100% of my current "spendable" income at a 4% SWR (*spendable income is my income after investments - once I retire I will not need to continue to invest for retirement!! woohoo!! )

OR

Plan B - I can take the risk of investing in a wildly chaotic and volatile stock market and if I am lucky retire 1 or 2 years earlier- or possibly many years later if things go badly. Ouch!!

For me it's a no-brainer - I'll take plan A. I really don't need to take 'undue' risk at this point of my life. If the market drops to a level where I feel comfortable with valuations - I'll gladly jump back in and re-establish my long held "Coffee house portfolio". But until then...I'll just keep earning and saving and enjoying the journey.

We are of the same mindset. I am 55 and believe I can work at least another 10 years.

 

[Toro]

GOLD!!!!!!!!!! $1408.00 per ozt & climbing.

WHOA! Cheering is bad.

When something goes this right for me I remember the seven card stud hand where I nailed high Chicago (half the pot for the highest spade in the hole) right at the start. I decided to bluff an open ended three card straight flush. I ended up with high spade, a six card straight flush and almost no money. I like slow steady returns.

I like big, fast returns. But one must keep a steady head. Cheerleading always makes me nervous because it often signals overconfidence, and the trading Gods like to punish overconfidence.

 

[KissMy]

WHOA! Cheering is bad.

When something goes this right for me I remember the seven card stud hand where I nailed high Chicago (half the pot for the highest spade in the hole) right at the start. I decided to bluff an open ended three card straight flush. I ended up with high spade, a six card straight flush and almost no money. I like slow steady returns.

I like big, fast returns. But one must keep a steady head. Cheerleading always makes me nervous because it often signals overconfidence, and the trading Gods like to punish overconfidence.

Yes, the trading gods did try to punish the Gold Bugs just before & after the QE2 announcement. The Fed lent more gold to miners to sell on the commodities market & had the Fed's primary dealer banks short gold to scare the Gold Bugs, but it did not work.

The G20 & Fed fucktards are losing control. Even a large tax hike may have trouble stopping this dollar route. Once the Fed loses control it is going to take a lot more than jawboning to stem Golds rise. It will take actual Spending Cuts, Raising Taxes, Raising Interest Rates & QE Ending Dollar Printing to regain confidence in the Dollar. Fat chance of that happening.

 

[LordBrownTrout]

Personally, I prefer the entrepreneurial route. I find that to be the most gratifying. Startups from scratch are tough but I prefer being in control of decision making since I'm dealing with my own money. I appreciate the knowledge by Toro, Paulie, Wie, and many others over here in regards to the stock market and stocks. Believe me, I have used it in commodities, precious metals. Hell, I should probably be sending yall a commission, lol.

 

[william the wie]

WHOA! Cheering is bad.

When something goes this right for me I remember the seven card stud hand where I nailed high Chicago (half the pot for the highest spade in the hole) right at the start. I decided to bluff an open ended three card straight flush. I ended up with high spade, a six card straight flush and almost no money. I like slow steady returns.

I like big, fast returns. But one must keep a steady head. Cheerleading always makes me nervous because it often signals overconfidence, and the trading Gods like to punish overconfidence.

That and ignoring the alternatives will blow up right in your face. By the way the odds on you being right about US markets heading for a trading range seem to be improving but Australia's housing boom is hitting some serious headwinds.

 

[Paulie]

Personally, I prefer the entrepreneurial route. I find that to be the most gratifying. Startups from scratch are tough but I prefer being in control of decision making since I'm dealing with my own money. I appreciate the knowledge by Toro, Paulie, Wie, and many others over here in regards to the stock market and stocks. Believe me, I have used it in commodities, precious metals. Hell, I should probably be sending yall a commission, lol.

I don't know anything compared to Toro and Wie.

I knew metals were going up though. I remember I told you to take a little silver off the table back when it was like $21 or so. And even though it continued going higher and never stopped, I would still tell you the same thing.

There's nothing wrong with take a little profit during such a huge run-up.

 

[KissMy]

Personally, I prefer the entrepreneurial route. I find that to be the most gratifying. Startups from scratch are tough but I prefer being in control of decision making since I'm dealing with my own money. I appreciate the knowledge by Toro, Paulie, Wie, and many others over here in regards to the stock market and stocks. Believe me, I have used it in commodities, precious metals. Hell, I should probably be sending yall a commission, lol.

I don't know anything compared to Toro and Wie.

I knew metals were going up though. I remember I told you to take a little silver off the table back when it was like $21 or so. And even though it continued going higher and never stopped, I would still tell you the same thing.

There's nothing wrong with take a little profit during such a huge run-up.

There is a problem if you are scared out by government manipulation or sell-out before the big run. Commodities are not stocks. Gold & Silver are not Commodities or stocks. People should not play them the same way. Until the things driving down the dollar are actually fixed you should be in Gold & Silver. These forces destroying the dollar are high unemployment, deficit spending, trade deficit, low interest rates & QE money creation.

 

[topspin]

if you have a serious percentage in bonds you better be agile, they are in a huge bubble that will burst worse than the housing market in the next 5 years.

 

[Paulie]

Personally, I prefer the entrepreneurial route. I find that to be the most gratifying. Startups from scratch are tough but I prefer being in control of decision making since I'm dealing with my own money. I appreciate the knowledge by Toro, Paulie, Wie, and many others over here in regards to the stock market and stocks. Believe me, I have used it in commodities, precious metals. Hell, I should probably be sending yall a commission, lol.

I don't know anything compared to Toro and Wie.

I knew metals were going up though. I remember I told you to take a little silver off the table back when it was like $21 or so. And even though it continued going higher and never stopped, I would still tell you the same thing.

There's nothing wrong with take a little profit during such a huge run-up.

There is a problem if you are scared out by government manipulation or sell-out before the big run. Commodities are not stocks. Gold & Silver are not Commodities or stocks. People should not play them the same way. Until the things driving down the dollar are actually fixed you should be in Gold & Silver. These forces destroying the dollar are high unemployment, deficit spending, trade deficit, low interest rates & QE money creation.

I only suggested he take SOME off the table, never to actually sell out.

Buy low sell high still applies. October had 2 periods of dips in silver where the price corrected by $2. While it's hard to time that perfectly, it still offers good reason to take a little profit during a run-up.

 

[LordBrownTrout]

Personally, I prefer the entrepreneurial route. I find that to be the most gratifying. Startups from scratch are tough but I prefer being in control of decision making since I'm dealing with my own money. I appreciate the knowledge by Toro, Paulie, Wie, and many others over here in regards to the stock market and stocks. Believe me, I have used it in commodities, precious metals. Hell, I should probably be sending yall a commission, lol.

I don't know anything compared to Toro and Wie.

I knew metals were going up though. I remember I told you to take a little silver off the table back when it was like $21 or so. And even though it continued going higher and never stopped, I would still tell you the same thing.

There's nothing wrong with take a little profit during such a huge run-up.

There is a problem if you are scared out by government manipulation or sell-out before the big run. Commodities are not stocks. Gold & Silver are not Commodities or stocks. People should not play them the same way. Until the things driving down the dollar are actually fixed you should be in Gold & Silver. These forces destroying the dollar are high unemployment, deficit spending, trade deficit, low interest rates & QE money creation.

Government actions ie bailouts, stimulus, etc, two years ago, made my decision to jump into silver. Yeah, I know stocks aren't precious metals or commodoties. I decided to start my third business venture in commodoties about four months ago.

As far as silver, I sold one bag but I'm hanging on to the second and considering buying another. Silver is in the open water and cruising now. We'll see some minor pullbacks from time to time but I plan on holding on now until silver is 100 an ounce.

 

[Toro]

Well, we have had an intra-day reversal in gold and silver today, so I liquidated all my short term positions. I intend to buy them back, but after the incredible melt-up over the past five trading days, there could be significant downside.

I blame KissMy! This is why traders and investors should never cheer! The Trading Gods are angry!

 

[KissMy]

Well, we have had an intra-day reversal in gold and silver today, so I liquidated all my short term positions. I intend to buy them back, but after the incredible melt-up over the past five trading days, there could be significant downside.

I blame KissMy! This is why traders and investors should never cheer! The Trading Gods are angry!

I did the opposite a couple of weeks ago on gold & silver. I got out on the top made a ton of money in my IRA on those trades. This time I got in right after the QE2 announcement & the next day it took off like a rocket. I was pre-occupied today and missed the top by a mile. Now I am still holding lots of Silver & Gold. It looks like all commodities, bonds & stocks across the board started off way high & then reversed end of day losing big by the end. The dollar rallied for no good reason. The swiftness of this move smells. They were preaching ETF flash crash stories around noon. Someone decided to play along.

 

[Toro]

Meh

Silver is up something like 20% since the Fed announcement. All commodities have screamed higher. It was getting a little nuts. They were due for a correction. We'll see how long it lasts.

 

[KissMy]

Meh

Silver is up something like 20% since the Fed announcement. All commodities have screamed higher. It was getting a little nuts. They were due for a correction. We'll see how long it lasts.

Yea silver was crazy high.

It is strange how stocks, bonds, commodities, gold, silver & currencies all reversed on heavy volume. Everyone ran from the dollar due to QE2 and now the dollar had a huge snap back rally. I wonder if it is over now or how far it will go? This could be a big correction but I think most of it already happened.

 

[Toro]

I'd be surprised if it were a big correction. There is often a hard reversal in the few weeks around Thanksgiving.

 

[KissMy]

This could explain the sudden freakish dollar strength.

(Kitco News) Raise in CME Silver Margins Prompts Sell-Off

A Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) decision to raise maintenance silver margins from $5,000 to $6,500 triggered a sell-off in the precious metals during after-hours trading late Tuesday, analysts said.

“The raise in the silver margins from $5,000 to $6,500, combined with the beginning of a big roll-over from the December to the March contract, makes some people think about taking profits and waiting until the coast cleared,” said George Gero, vice president and precious-metals strategist with RBC Capital Markets Global Futures.

Some traders opted to liquidate positions rather than put up the money for the increased margins, said Tom Pawlicki, analyst with MF Global. “Once the CME came in and raised the margins, that kind of deflated the enthusiasm,” he said.

The impact spilled over into other precious metals.

“The margins were only raised for silver – but under the (Standard Portfolio Analysis of Risk) or SPAN margining system that the CME uses, the possibility of other margin increases propped up,”

 

[william the wie]

However you look at it this is a strange3 market.