Thinking as of 11/1

[Hurricanelover]

1. Harris will win rust belt states that matter. Pa, Wis, Mi. 90% chance. Early vote going 2-1 for her and late deciders going her way! Huge female turn out. Big cities like Philly and Detroit are coming out big time.




2. Lower Hispanic turn out and probably slight right ward trend of the demographic in the south. This is seen in Southern Texas turn out being way down. Also in the 180 turn in party turnout in Florida, Arizona and Nevada. Probably enough to flip Nevada for the first time in 20 years and turn Arizona red.

3. This will result in a tidal wave of loses for the democratic party in Califorina. Probably 4-6 seats.
3A. Northeast turn out and support remain strong for democrats so I don't expect new york or northeast states to follow California, nevada, etc.
3b. Rosen in nevada could be close to losing to brown....

The thing is this kills any chance of a majority for the democrats.

There's a real possibility that president Harris will have to deal with a republican house and senate for 2 years. Possibly one with 52-53 seats in the senate and 225-230 in the house.

Prediction for Presidential % by state
Wis 1.2% Harris
Michigan 2.4% Harris
Pa .7% Harris
Neb 2 3.5% Harris
Nevada 3.5% Trump
Arizona 1.5% Trump
Georgia 1.2% Trump
NC .5% Trump
Florida 10.5% Trump

Odds for Harris to become the 47th President of the United states 85%. I am almost certain with the two data points above.

 

[1srelluc]

WaPo poll.

Read it and weep.

Top Battlegrounds – RCP Average

www.realclearpolling.com

 

[two_iron]

Daily Mail just released their final poll - Trump +3% nationally.

President Trump just won AZ... +200,000 with 67% of the expected vote already recorded. More

 

[Auld Phart]

HOw many chickens do you see?

 

[odanny]

Harris will get a landslide of women voters, this one is looking real good right now for the Democrats.

Restricting a woman's healthcare rights and "I will protect women whether they like it or not" aint gonna fly at the ballot box.

 

[Lisa558]

WaPo poll.

Read it and weep.

Top Battlegrounds – RCP Average

www.realclearpolling.com

I’m thinking Harris will get Michigan, but that’s it.

 

[yidnar]

Harris will get a landslide of women voters, this one is looking real good right now for the Democrats.

Restricting a woman's healthcare rights and "I will protect women whether they like it or not" aint gonna fly at the ballot box.

 

[BluesLegend]

"thinking" you say...

 

[the watcher]

1. Harris will win rust belt states that matter. Pa, Wis, Mi. 90% chance. Early vote going 2-1 for her and late deciders going her way! Huge female turn out. Big cities like Philly and Detroit are coming out big time.

I don't care how many huge females waddle down, most people have had enough.

 

[Lisa558]

HOw many chickens do you see?

I don’t count them before they’re hatched. (Clarified for the dumb posters.)

 

[Lisa558]

I don't care how many huge females waddle down, most people have had enough.

Huge females! LOL

 

[Hurricanelover]

I think the three rust belt states could go for Harris for more then they did Biden in 2020. On the otherhand Arizona and Nevada will likely be at an minimum these amounts to the right....

It all balances out and this is why you can get it closer to tied or +1 or maybe 1.5% Harris. I suspect Califorina will be around 18-22% this time around instead of 28-32%. This will sadly effect the house but will allow the rust belt to go harris.

 

[two_iron]

Huge females! LOL

They always look like farm animals that shouldn't have fucked each other....

 

[luiza]

I fear for all of you from Wednesday onwards .

I see it all as one of the big games to view but not to be involved in . Obviously easier for me as I am an outsider .

I happen to think the world will be a far worse place if Squawker is somehow manipulated to win .

But I genuinely believe that both candidates are different parts of Deep State and that the whole nonsense is Theatre based on Chaos Theory .