The World Went Into a Panic Over the Model of One Individual

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Weatherman2020

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Who has a record of always being very wrong and refuses to share his methodology.

As my old posts show, I called this at the start of this.



..The mother of all modeling when it comes to COVID-19 is Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London. It was he who first said 500,000 people in England would die, and another 2.2 million in America unless drastic steps were taken. Then, when both countries panicked, he came out with a new, downgraded model (one that still overstates the reality). Ferguson was presented to the world as one of the world's foremost epidemiologists and modelers. Perhaps we should have learned more about him before accepting that claim. With help from Bill Steigerwald, Power Line has an expose that gives us more information about Ferguson.
It turns out that, in 2005, Ferguson had some predictions about the Bird Flu. He estimated 200,000,000 deaths worldwide. In fact, in the last 17 years, there've been 455 diagnosed Bird Flu deaths. But anyone is entitled to make one little 199,999,545-person error, right? Well, maybe. But what about two such errors?

Dr. Ferguson was equally off with his death projections for mad cow disease. He made big headlines in the United Kingdom by predicting that mad cow disease could kill between 50 and 50,000. Bill writes: "Millions of cows were slaughtered. But to be fair, his scientific 'model' was right. The death toll [is 178 to date]."
But wait! There's more. Ferguson also refuses to share his methodology with other scientists:

Several researchers have apparently asked to see Imperial's calculations, but Prof. Neil Ferguson, the man leading the team, has said that the computer code is 13 years old and thousands of lines of it "undocumented," making it hard for anyone to work with, let alone take it apart to identify potential errors. He has promised that it will be published in a week or so, but in the meantime reasonable people might wonder whether something made with 13-year-old, undocumented computer code should be used to justify shutting down the economy.
Ferguson is the modern equivalent of the man standing on the street corner, screaming at passers-by, "The end is near." Neither is correct; both are insane. And yet this is the man who has shut down America's economy...

We should listen to you on fighting the TRUMPvirus

Only you understand the real threat
I sure got a lot more right than the ‘experts’
 

ReinyDays

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Covid-19 has been particularly hard on folks with diabetes, someone on NPR came up with the "90% of those who die have underlying health issues" ... and many are elderly ...

For 40% vax coverage and a 50% effectiveness ... and using simple quadratic growth ... we reduced flu deaths by 35% in the 2017-18 season ... so without the vax, the death toll would have been 80,000 in the USA ...

So far, we've spent $10,000 per person just in government debt ... $1,200 per taxpayer, and $8,800 to make the direct deposit ...
 
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Weatherman2020

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Covid-19 has been particularly hard on folks with diabetes, someone on NPR came up with the "90% of those who die have underlying health issues" ... and many are elderly ...

For 40% vax coverage and a 50% effectiveness ... and using simple quadratic growth ... we reduced flu deaths by 35% in the 2017-18 season ... so without the vax, the death toll would have been 80,000 in the USA ...

So far, we've spent $10,000 per person just in government debt ... $1,200 per taxpayer, and $8,800 to make the direct deposit ...
The flu is just as hard on diabetics.
 

harmonica

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..like many subjects, people think this is like the movies---but it ISN'T!!
..Covid 19 does not magically infect people.....if people are disciplined, you can keep the thing down
...wash before and after going out, going here, going there.....
...think of sanitary/sanitation in all aspects....
.....of course there are jackass humans that will be human
..our company has implemented many sanitary/etc policies and checks ...we are working fine.....
..tell the workers their jobs are on the line and be sanitary.....
..Germany is well known for cleanliness/sanitation and discipline---look a them

people think this thing JUMPS from everywhere
 
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Weatherman2020

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Wow, and Trump is going along with it. I guess he has really been fooled.
I’m not making excuses for him, but imagine the MSM headlines every day as people die. 2,000 Americans died today while Trump just asked everyone to limit travel and keep a safe distance!
 
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Weatherman2020

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..like many subjects, people think this is like the movies---but it ISN'T!!
..Covid 19 does not magically infect people.....if people are disciplined, you can keep the thing down
...wash before and after going out, going here, going there.....
...think of sanitary/sanitation in all aspects....
.....of course there are jackass humans that will be human
..our company has implemented many sanitary/etc policies and checks ...we are working fine.....
..tell the workers their jobs are on the line and be sanitary.....
..Germany is well known for cleanliness/sanitation and discipline---look a them

people think this thing JUMPS from everywhere
Yep. Couple of my ministry’s involve working the public. And every flu season I take extra precautions because I hate getting sick.
 

WEATHER53

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In the weather business we call this sort “Snow Crow”
It’s always going to be a blizzard and the 5-10% chance of such a thing does not get discussed
 

WEATHER53

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And remember they have the Wonderfully Convenient Fall Back Position of “millions did not die because we saved them via the lockdown” which has no comparison /contrast background for assessment
It’s almost like they are right no matter the outcome.
 
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And remember they have the Wonderfully Convenient Fall Back Position of “millions did not die because we saved them via the lockdown” which has no comparison /contrast background for assessment
It’s almost like they are right no matter the outcome.
Except they claim the shutdown was in the model.
 
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linux07

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As long as the Hospitals are overrun , staying at home is justifiable

 

ReinyDays

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Just 12 days ago the ‘experts’ said 100,000-200,000 Americans would die.
Now it’s 60,000 and being revised downwards daily.
"See, the lock down worked ... trillions of dollars well spent" ... I agree with Weather53, no matter the outcome, the doomsayers will always claim success ... these "experts" will never admit they're wrong ...

The estimates are 60,000 dead now? ... no worse than a bad flu season, like two years ago ... should we be expecting another lock down coming October? ...
 

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