There's a very good chance it will be +4C.
So, basically, the temperature difference between 8am and 10am.
Putting a mean value change into perspective along with it's natural variance -- is NEVER stupid..
My comment was directed at fncceo who implied that a global average change equivalent to the change possible in a single day was trivial. That was stupid.
On any given day in my area -- the temps will be +/- 10DegF from "normal".. The year to year variance in the ARCTIC is even higher, because the overall sensitivities to forcings is HIGHER in that unique climate.
Who cares? That observation is irrelevant. If you'd paid a little more attention you might have understood the actual thread of conversation.
So the 0.6DegC change "due to Global Warming" in YOUR lifetime -- when put in THAT perspective -- is not threatening a damn thing.. Not penguins, not oak trees, not Miami or Portland.
My lifetime? You know when I'm going to die? My response to your query was that the temperature increase by 2100 (at which time I will be long in my grave) was very likely to be +4C which was intended to mean +4C since the Industrial Revolution. This would be the same baseline used by the IPCC and all of the intergovernmental agreements such as in Paris attempting to maintain less than +1.5C and warning that +2C could be catastrophic. But, so far, none of the deniers who've commented on this value seem to have understood that. I guess I will have to step down the expected knowledge level of my intended arguments when posting here.
I've never said that man-made CO2 emissions have no effect on the GMASTemperature. I've only said that it's highly unlikely that ANY of the CATASTROPHIC tenets of GW theory are plausible. The claims that the Earth's climate system is SO DAMN unstable -- that a change of just 2.5% of a rare gas in the whole of the carbon cycle is gonna trigger IRREVERSIBLE planetary destruction..
What rare gas has increased by 2.5%? CO2 has gone from 280 ppm to 411 ppm. That is an increase of almost
147%. Methane has gone from 700 ppb to 1700 ppb, an increase of
243%
And I also doubt the hype of the paleo climate studies finding that our little 0.9degC blip is "unprecedented" in the past 100,000 years. Those studies never had the data confidence to MAKE those claims.
Which would mean you don't have the confidence to claim it
has happened before. But, as I have stated before, you can only say that [
paleo temp data lack the resolution to see a pulse the size of current warming] if you assume that the current warming trend is going to end and return to pre-industrial levels within the next century, something NO scientist ANYWHERE expects to happen.
So if the TOTAL ANOMALY by 2100 is just 2DegC --- there's NO ******* SOCIETAL PLANETARY EMERGENCY... And books like the one you're hawking in THIS thread are gonna be comedy gold by 2100, when the energy systems are totally different and the next Ice Age is knocking on the door..
You keep telling yourself that. And if you're patting yourself on the back for not living within, say, ten feet of sea level, take a pause to make some room for the millions of people who do.
