Midterms. Usually meaningless. The out of party gets some gains and then thinks they've been given a mandate. Happened with the Democrats in 1982 and the Republicans in 1994. Then they get up against the cold hard reality that the President still really calls the shots and the half the electorate that showed up for him is going to be ticked off that the quarter of the electorate is overplaying its hand.
Interesting minimalization. That then doesn't explain that why W had gains in the mid term elections in 2002, which was the first time the president's party gained then in 100 years IIRC. Midterms often show to be an indicator of the nations approval of the policies this president had been pushing through What was significant in 2010 though was not that the Dems lost. It was to be somewhat expected, but rather it was a loss of monumental proportion. Made 1994 look like a minor grumble compared to a riot. It happened not only at the federal level but the state and local levels too. Places that had been all but one party rule or controlled by the dems changed hands for the first time in sometimes half a century! It was not an inconsequential election, it was a sea change. The tide has started reversing course.
As far as retirements- A lot of people from both parties are retiring, due to redistricting, or they are just tired of not making any real money.
Again, minimizing the reality.
These are not insignificant.
Obama will win re-election unless something goes seriously wrong with the economy.
Oh he's got a LOT to worry about on that front. So far the public's been fooled. But if the predicted gas price spike hits by memorial day driving us up to 4.50 a gallon he's done for. The economy is too delicate to handle it, and people vote their pocketbooks. Whomever the candidate that opposes him will be just has to ask the same question Reagan did: "Are you better off today than you were 4 years ago?" Even if you say it's W's fault. It's irrelevant. Most people don't think that deep about it anymore and they also will say "It's been 4 years and you STILL haven't fixed it like you promised."
But, who knows?
The Senate is another story, because the GOP took such a beating in 2006, the Democrats are defending too many seats this time. So they will probably take the Senate.
Not to mention the ton of open seats in areas that the polling for dems is not as solid as it used to be. It's going to be ugly ugly ugly this election year for the senate.
