The Phantom's Election Challenge

[BluePhantom]

Well here it is! One day before the main event. The polls are in, the media is in a scramble. Let's make our calls. The challenge is simple. Anyone who predicts the outcome within 10 EVs get's repped by everyone who participates. Anyone whose prediction is more than 25 EVs away from the outcome gets neg repped by everyone who participates.

The overall winner gets bragging rights and the ability to give everyone else a one finger salute and gloat.

We will give Romney the following states: SC, GA, AL, MS, TN, KY, WV, IN, MO, AR, LA, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, UT, ID, MT, WY, AZ, and AK for a total of 191 EVs.

Obama will be given WA, OR, CA, HI, NM, IL, VT, NY, ME, DC, DE, MD, NJ, CT, RI, and MA for a total of 201 EVs.

So all you need to do is call the following and do the math: CO, FL, IA, MI, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA, WI.

For tie breakers....call the spread on the national vote (1st layer), the spread in Ohio (2nd layer), and the spread in Virginia (3rd layer).


My entry is to come....good luck to all.

 

[blastoff]

Same as yours.

 

[BluePhantom]

Colorado: Romney
Florida: Romney
Iowa: Obama
Michigan: Obama
Nevada: Obama
New Hampshire: Romney
North Carolina: Romney
Ohio: Romney
Pennsylvania: Obama
Virginia: Romney
Wisconsin: Obama

Romney: 279
Obama: 259

Tie-breakers
National Vote: Romney +2.7
Ohio: Romney +0.8
Virginia: Romney +3.6

 

[RespondsWithGif]

Colorado: Romney
Florida: Romney
Iowa: Romney
Michigan: Obama
Nevada: Obama
North Carolina: Romney
Ohio Romney
Pennsylvania: Obama
Virginia: Romney
Wisconsin: Obama

Romney 281
Obama 257


National Romney + 3.4
Ohio Romney + 1
Virginia Romney + 4.2

 

[Avatar4321]

Romney 317

Obama 221

Im not going to call states. dont really care how the numbers get there. Im thinking Romney will likely have more but im feeling conservative

 

[Dr.Traveler]

We will give Romney the following states: SC, GA, AL, MS, TN, KY, WV, IN, MO, AR, LA, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, UT, ID, MT, WY, AZ, and AK for a total of 191 EVs.

Obama will be given WA, OR, CA, HI, NM, IL, VT, NY, ME, DC, DE, MD, NJ, CT, RI, and MA for a total of 201 EVs.

So all you need to do is call the following and do the math: CO, FL, IA, MI, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA, WI.

Romney: CO, FL, IA, NC, VA finishing at 263 EV
Obama: MI, NV, NH, OH, PA, WI finishing at 275 EV.

Ok, the tie breakers after all:
National: +1.7 Romney
Ohio: +2.5 Obama
Virginia: +2.0 Romney

 

[PoliticalChic]

November 6th, 1890

In an official declaration the Mormon Church abandoned polygamy.

An omen?

 

[BluePhantom]

November 6th, 1890

In an official declaration the Mormon Church abandoned polygamy.

An omen?

Maybe....truth be told this is all going to come down to turnout tomorrow. Ohio is so close it could go either way. I saw Nate Silver already published his "disclaimer article" about how if he is wrong it's because the polls suck and it's not his fault. At the end of the day it just depends on how many people say "meh...fuck it" and don't show up and who those people support. It could go either way and as goes Ohio so goes the presidency.

 

[AceRothstein]

Romney: CO, FL, NC
Obama: MI, NV, NH, OH, PA, WI, IA, VA

Tie Breakers
National: +1.2 Obama
Ohio: +2.8 Obama
Virginia: +0.8 Obama

 

[Dr.Traveler]

November 6th, 1890

In an official declaration the Mormon Church abandoned polygamy.

An omen?

Maybe....truth be told this is all going to come down to turnout tomorrow. Ohio is so close it could go either way. I saw Nate Silver already published his "disclaimer article" about how if he is wrong it's because the polls suck and it's not his fault. At the end of the day it just depends on how many people say "meh...fuck it" and don't show up and who those people support. It could go either way and as goes Ohio so goes the presidency.

I'm not the biggest Nate Silver fan, but kick around the polling aggregate sites and you can see Nate is right. There's not a single bit of data out there to predict there will be a landslide and Ohio seems to be slipping into the leaning blue camp. The data is definitely leaning towards a very narrow Obama victory.

I almost added to my prediction "An unusual end" as one of the conditions, as I don't think anyone wins Ohio by a margin large enough to avoid the Nov. 17th deadline. [sarcasm]Those 11 days are going to fun times indeed.[/sarcasm]

 

[BluePhantom]

November 6th, 1890

In an official declaration the Mormon Church abandoned polygamy.

An omen?

Maybe....truth be told this is all going to come down to turnout tomorrow. Ohio is so close it could go either way. I saw Nate Silver already published his "disclaimer article" about how if he is wrong it's because the polls suck and it's not his fault. At the end of the day it just depends on how many people say "meh...fuck it" and don't show up and who those people support. It could go either way and as goes Ohio so goes the presidency.

I'm not the biggest Nate Silver fan, but kick around the polling aggregate sites and you can see Nate is right. There's not a single bit of data out there to predict there will be a landslide and Ohio seems to be slipping into the leaning blue camp. The data is definitely leaning towards a very narrow Obama victory.

I almost added to my prediction "An unusual end" as one of the conditions, as I don't think anyone wins Ohio by a margin large enough to avoid the Nov. 17th deadline. [sarcasm]Those 11 days are going to fun times indeed.[/sarcasm]

Well the problem with the polls right now is the sampling. So many polls with ridiculous crap like a projected turnout of D+8 in Ohio? PUH-LEASE!! That's more than Obama got in 2008 when he was riding a wave of popularity and the nation was furious with the GOP after the market crash. He's simply not going to get that kind of turnout this year. Media polls are the worst in this regard and because of Sandy a lot of the professional pollsters have stopped giving us data leaving us little BUT media polls...so we're stuck with a lot of total crap to try and interpret. Silver knows this perfectly well, hence the reason why he wrote the article setting up his excuse if Romney wins.

At this point I would say Ohio is in a "flip a coin" category. It's all going to be about who shows up to vote tomorrow and who doesn't...hence the reason for my call of Romney in Ohio. Historically Republicans are far more dependable in turnout than Democrats.

 

[rightwinger]

Colorado: Obama
Florida: Romney
Iowa: Obama
Michigan: Obama
Nevada: Obama
NH: Obama
North Carolina: Romney
Ohio: Obama
Penn: Obama
Virginia: Obama
Wisconsin: Obama

Final Tally:

Obama 303
Romney 235

Tie Breakers
National: +2.8 Obama
Ohio: +3.2 Obama
Virginia: +1.2 Obama

Senate

Democrats 53
Republicans 47

 

[NYcarbineer]

Obama 303 Romney 235

 

[BluePhantom]

Sigh...great...now I have to take Carbeener off ignore to get his entry. Lovely

 

[The Rabbi]

I'm lucky at this point I care enough.
I call Romney for winning.
As you said, it is turnout. The middle class working guys and gals in this country have had enough. Nothing--I mean nothing short of actual coronary cessation--will keep them from the polls. The pollsters are way off on this one. They will be shocked by the results.

 

[NYcarbineer]

So I win? Or tied for the win?

Of course I did. That's how good poll analysis works. The lesson is free, you're welcome.

Oh, I guess if Romney pulls out Florida 2 of us hit the numbers exactly?

lol,

 

[Dr.Traveler]

Once final numbers are in, let me know and I'll pay up with pos reps. Looks like a lot of us are getting neg reps.