The next offensive must focus on decimating the IRGC.

[kyzr]

Or, Iranian oil moving directly in the Gulf might mean end of desalination plants of the Gulf monarchies, and no water for them. Its more difficult to survive without real water than without virtual dollars. Say nothing, that mutually effective blockade of Hormuz, means also no money for Gulf Monarchies (and much lesser money for American banks and energy-depend America's allies) and much more money for both Russia (who has oil) and China (who has fixed-price contracts on Russian oil and sell "Green Energy" Plants).

The Gulf states have pipelines to keep their oil moving without Hormuz.
The Gulf states have defenses to shoot down Iran's missiles.
Trump is being nice not damaging Iran's powerplants or desalinization plants, but that could end if Iran misbehaves.

 

[toomuchtime_]

Iran used drones as a deterrent. They've deliberately avoided sinking US ships because they don't want to cause a large loss of life that would further provoke the US.

The Iranians have done their homework. They know when and how to escalate. They know the majority of Americans are against this conflict and that number will only continue to grow as gas prices and eventually gas shortages bite.

Even if they're completely justified in defending themselves (which they are), sinking a carrier or warship and causing mass casualties and loss of life is something that could potentially shift public opinion here, and they don't want that.

But make no mistake that they could destroy the US Navy if they decide to press their luck and force their way into the Strait. Why do you think the French and British navies haven't joined us in attempting to force the Strait open?

Those are your fantasies about Iran, but the reason the IRGC, Iran's de facto government at this point, won't attack the US navy is that is the same as it was in the 1980's, they are afraid of the consequences.

Iran is entirely defenseless against US and Israeli air attacks, and if the IRGC were stupid enough to seriously attack US navy ships, the US could shut down the entire country in few days by taking out all the oil refineries and fuel storage tanks and power plant, so that the country would have no fuel and no electricity, not even enough to charge their cell phones.

All this bluster you are posting is nothing.

 

[Zavulon]

90% of Iran's oil went thru Kharg island, 5% went by rail to China, and 5% went to the Caspian sea.
If we blow up RR bridges to China and pumping stations to the Caspian sea, Iran moves zero oil.

Good luck with it.

How would acquiring nukes help Iran? Israel's Iron Dome keeps everything out. It would be an act of war for China or Russia to sell a nuke to Iran.

And what can you do about it? Start a nuclear war against Russia and China simultaneously? Especially if you are not ready to start a regional nuclear war or even conventional ground assault against Iran?

They aren't that stupid, to risk extermination for Iran.

If you are not ready to lost a million of soldiers in a conventional operation, you are not ready to start a regional nuclear war and lost ten millions civilians in Israel, say nothing about uncountable number of Arabs and risks for US cities.

And no, have Iran exterminated and the whole Middle East, including Israel, turned into a radioactive desert is a way better (from the Russian and Chinese point of view) than allow US get control over Iran.

 

[Zavulon]

The Gulf states have pipelines to keep their oil moving without Hormuz.

Not very significant, and even them Iran can took under fire control as it happened with Fujaira.

The Gulf states have defenses to shoot down Iran's missiles.

No, they haven't.

Trump is being nice not damaging Iran's powerplants or desalinization plants, but that could end if Iran misbehaves.

And what he actually can do? Waste more missiles in vain? Send troops in ground assault? Nuke Iranian ports?

 

[kyzr]

And what can you do about it? Start a nuclear war against Russia and China simultaneously? Especially if you are not ready to start a regional nuclear war or even conventional ground assault against Iran?

Ready? All we need to do is push a button.

If you are not ready to lose a million of soldiers in a conventional operation, you are not ready to start a regional nuclear war and lose ten millions civilians in Israel, say nothing about uncountable number of Arabs and risks for US cities.

What "regional nuclear war"? Against whom? Iraq defeated Iran in a conventional war, and we easily defeated Iraq, who had the 4th largest army at the time.
We wouldn't lose many against Iran, and no US cities are at risk.

And no, have Iran exterminated and the whole Middle East, including Israel, turned into a radioactive desert is a way better (from the Russian and Chinese point of view) than allow US get control over Iran.

Whatever.

 

[multivita-man]

Those are your fantasies about Iran, but the reason the IRGC, Iran's de facto government at this point, won't attack the US navy is that is the same as it was in the 1980's, they are afraid of the consequences.

Yes, to a certain extent, that is true. They don't want to attack the US Navy because they're concerned about perceptions. They don't want to be viewed as escalating attacks when it looks like the US may be looking for a diplomatic way out.

Again, the Iranians know this war is unpopular among Americans and among American allies - everyone but hardcore Israeli and US neocons seem to want the war to end now. I don't think Trump really ever wanted this war, and I think even he wants a way out, but he can't exit looking like he has been completely defeated by a 'lesser' power like Iran.

That being the case, it would be a strategic error to attack the US Navy while the Navy is parked hundreds of miles away. People would accuse Iran of unnecessarily escalating the war, increasing the risk that the US says **** it, restarts the war, and justifies wholesale carpet-bombing of Tehran and other cities in retaliation.

Iran has almost won this war. I say almost because the US and Israel haven't given up on it yet, but their options are limited. That said, the US and Israel could go scorched earth on their way out and still cause a lot of death and destruction.

Iran is entirely defenseless against US and Israeli air attacks,

They absolutely are not. You've been following the wrong sources. The US doesn't have air dominance. About 30-35 aircraft have been shot down so far - that we know of. The US is forced to use stand-off munitions, and we're almost out of those - one reason for the pause, actually. We have a much bigger supply of gravity bombs but Iran's radars and air defenses have likely been bolstered by the Chinese and Russians. US and Israeli aircraft risk getting shot down every time they fly into Iranian air space.

and if the IRGC were stupid enough to seriously attack US navy ships, the US could shut down the entire country in few days by taking out all the oil refineries and fuel storage tanks and power plant, so that the country would have no fuel and no electricity, not even enough to charge their cell phones.

They've already attacked much of Iran's infrastructure. They're functioning fine. And keep in mind that if the US and Israel escalate attacks on Iran's critical infrastructure, then Iran will do the same to Israel and the GCC nations that still ally themselves with the US and Israel (i.e., UAE).

 

[kyzr]

Not very significant, and even them Iran can took under fire control as it happened with Fujaira.

Its Gulf states moving oil, its what Iran can't do.

No, they haven't.

And what he actually can do? Waste more missiles in vain? Send troops in ground assault? Nuke Iranian ports?

Very accurate smart bombs could destroy powerplants and desalinization plants, but he won't.

 

[multivita-man]

Moronic response. Your lies are easy to disprove.

Trump says US to stop attacking Houthis in Yemen as group has 'capitulated'

Oman's foreign minister says a "ceasefire" between the US and the Iran-backed group has been reached.

www.bbc.com

"Trump says" = lie.

You eat and drink his lies like breakfast, lunch, and dinner.

 

[kyzr]

"Trump says" = lie.
You eat and drink his lies like breakfast, lunch, and dinner.

Prove its a lie. The Houthis stopped attacking US ships in the red sea and the Suez Canal.
We bombed them into peaceful submission, a fact. Mediated by Oman.
Your lies are easily provable.

Timeline of the Red Sea crisis - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

"Trump separately announced on 6 May that the US would cease its attacks on the Houthis after the group agreed to stop its attacks on commercial shipping, with a deal being negotiated between the two by Oman."

 

[Zavulon]

Ready? All we need to do is push a button.

You need much more than that. You need actual military capabilities and resolve.

What "regional nuclear war"? Against whom?

Against Iran, armed by Russia and/or China.

Iraq defeated Iran in a conventional war, and we easily defeated Iraq, who had the 4th largest army at the time.

You didn't actually defeat it. You just started a mess there, and then you gave it up to Iran.

We wouldn't lose many against Iran, and no US cities are at risk.

Who told you this? Say, few Iranian (China-made, Russia-armed and North Korea crewed) with nuclear armed cruise missiles might destroy few American cities, if the very existence of Iran is on the stake.

 

[kyzr]

You need much more than that. You need actual military capabilities and resolve.

Got those.

Against Iran, armed by Russia and/or China.

Never happen. If it did, its WW3. Neither wants WW3.

You didn't actually defeat it. You just started a mess there, and then you gave it up to Iran.

Read and learn.

Iraq War | Summary, Causes, Dates, Combatants, Casualties, & Facts | Britannica

The Iraq War was a conflict in Iraq from 2003 to 2011. It consisted of two phases: a conventionally fought war in March–April 2003, in which a combined force of troops primarily from the United States and Great Britain invaded Iraq and defeated Iraqi military forces, and a second phase...

www.britannica.com

Who told you this? Say, few Iranian (China-made, Russia-armed and North Korea crewed) with nuclear armed cruise missiles might destroy few American cities, if the very existence of Iran is on the stake.

Extermination is not worth the risk.

 

[multivita-man]

Prove its a lie. The Houthis stopped attacking US ships in the red sea and the Suez Canal.

It's more like the US Navy makes sure not to get anywhere near the Houthis these days.

A US Navy Aircraft Carrier Is Circling Africa To Reach The Middle East

USS George H.W. Bush may be avoiding the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the ‘other” chokepoint in the Middle East, where U.S. Navy destroyers have come under attack in the past.

www.forbes.com

The United States Navy’s 10th and final Nimitz-class nuclear-powered supercarrier, the USS George H.W. Bush (CVN-77), was spotted off the coast of Namibia on Monday. The warship will sail around the southern tip of the African continent, where she will cross from the Atlantic into the Indian Ocean at the Cape of Good Hope.

The aircraft carrier is believed to be en route to the Middle East, where she will join the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72), which has been operating in the region since February. The Pentagon didn’t announce why CVN-77, which departed Naval Station Norfolk in late March, is taking what is, in essence, the long way. The normal transit for the U.S. Navy’s East Coast carriers heading to the Middle East is to pass through the Strait of Gibraltar into the Mediterranean Sea, then through the Suez Canal into the Red Sea.

I'll tell you why the Pentagon ordered ships to take the long way: The band Houthis and the Blow-ships is on tour all over the Red Sea.

We bombed them into peaceful submission, a fact. Mediated by Oman.
Your lies are easily provable.

Nope.

Timeline of the Red Sea crisis - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

"Trump separately announced on 6 May that the US would cease its attacks on the Houthis after the group agreed to stop its attacks on commercial shipping, with a deal being negotiated between the two by Oman."

Again, Trump announced = lie.

CENTCOM said also = lie.

 

[toomuchtime_]

Good luck with it.


And what can you do about it? Start a nuclear war against Russia and China simultaneously? Especially if you are not ready to start a regional nuclear war or even conventional ground assault against Iran?


If you are not ready to lost a million of soldiers in a conventional operation, you are not ready to start a regional nuclear war and lost ten millions civilians in Israel, say nothing about uncountable number of Arabs and risks for US cities.

And no, have Iran exterminated and the whole Middle East, including Israel, turned into a radioactive desert is a way better (from the Russian and Chinese point of view) than allow US get control over Iran.

"And what can you do about it? Start a nuclear war against Russia and China simultaneously? Especially if you are not ready to start a regional nuclear war or even conventional ground assault against Iran"

What would Russia do if the US sent nukes to Ukraine and what would China do if we sent them to Taiwan? Is Russia ready to start a nuclear war that will end it? Is China ready to risk such a fate. Putin and Xi may be **** ups, but they are smart enough to realize they have nothing to gain by starting a nuclear was over Iran, apparently you are not that smart.

 

[kyzr]

It's more like the US Navy makes sure not to get anywhere near the Houthis these days.

I wouldn't either. Iran is their benefactor.

I'll tell you why the Pentagon ordered ships to take the long way: The band Houthis and the Blow-ships is on tour all over the Red Sea.

Suez is not worth the risk, all it takes is a few hard-asses looking for 72 virgins.

Again, Trump announced = lie.
CENTCOM said also = lie.

Your typing is a lie. I provided two credible links.

 

[toomuchtime_]

Yes, to a certain extent, that is true. They don't want to attack the US Navy because they're concerned about perceptions. They don't want to be viewed as escalating attacks when it looks like the US may be looking for a diplomatic way out.

Again, the Iranians know this war is unpopular among Americans and among American allies - everyone but hardcore Israeli and US neocons seem to want the war to end now. I don't think Trump really ever wanted this war, and I think even he wants a way out, but he can't exit looking like he has been completely defeated by a 'lesser' power like Iran.

That being the case, it would be a strategic error to attack the US Navy while the Navy is parked hundreds of miles away. People would accuse Iran of unnecessarily escalating the war, increasing the risk that the US says **** it, restarts the war, and justifies wholesale carpet-bombing of Tehran and other cities in retaliation.

Iran has almost won this war. I say almost because the US and Israel haven't given up on it yet, but their options are limited. That said, the US and Israel could go scorched earth on their way out and still cause a lot of death and destruction.



They absolutely are not. You've been following the wrong sources. The US doesn't have air dominance. About 30-35 aircraft have been shot down so far - that we know of. The US is forced to use stand-off munitions, and we're almost out of those - one reason for the pause, actually. We have a much bigger supply of gravity bombs but Iran's radars and air defenses have likely been bolstered by the Chinese and Russians. US and Israeli aircraft risk getting shot down every time they fly into Iranian air space.



They've already attacked much of Iran's infrastructure. They're functioning fine. And keep in mind that if the US and Israel escalate attacks on Iran's critical infrastructure, then Iran will do the same to Israel and the GCC nations that still ally themselves with the US and Israel (i.e., UAE).

Most of the US aircraft shot down were drones. Four F 15's and one A 10 were shot down. One F 35 was damaged but returned to base safely. The allies absolutely have air dominance; there is no place in Iran that cannot safely be destroyed.

The Iranian regime is afraid of the consequences of attacking a navy ship, nor of the "perception" of it.

If Trump gave the order, Iran's oil refineries and fuel storage tanks could b destroyed, leaving the regime and IRGC with no fuel. and after lunch the US could take out the regime's power plants, leaving the regime and IRGC with no electricity. If necessary, the bridges could be destroyed and then its ports could be destroyed, and before you whine about running out of munitions, the US has an almost endless supply of JDAMS.

That's why the regime doesn't want to attack US Navy ships.

But you are right about one thing, the only thing that can save the regime is the Democratic Party.

 

[Zavulon]

Got those.

No, you don't. Not even close.

Never happen. If it did, its WW3. Neither wants WW3.

If you don't want WW3 - alleviate now. And if you are not ready to sacrifice even one million of American soldiers in the ground invasion, you are definitely not ready to sacrifice at least (in the most optimistic for you scenario) forty millions of civilians in the nuclear exchange with Russia and China. It means, you are bluffing, and Russia is pretty safe to sell nukes to Iran (if Iran wants it and ready to pay).

Read and learn.

Iraq War | Summary, Causes, Dates, Combatants, Casualties, & Facts | Britannica

The Iraq War was a conflict in Iraq from 2003 to 2011. It consisted of two phases: a conventionally fought war in March–April 2003, in which a combined force of troops primarily from the United States and Great Britain invaded Iraq and defeated Iraqi military forces, and a second phase...

www.britannica.com

I do know what happened there.

Extermination is not worth the risk.

Freedom is worth. "Give me freedom or give me death". And if you are going to take their freedom they might be ready to, at least, take few millions of Americans with them and you have only yourself to blame.

 

[multivita-man]

I wouldn't either. Iran is their benefactor.

Suez is not worth the risk, all it takes is a few hard-asses looking for 72 virgins.

Your typing is a lie. I provided two credible links.

Who used liars as their sources.

 

[Zavulon]

"And what can you do about it? Start a nuclear war against Russia and China simultaneously? Especially if you are not ready to start a regional nuclear war or even conventional ground assault against Iran"

What would Russia do if the US sent nukes to Ukraine and what would China do if we sent them to Taiwan? Is Russia ready to start a nuclear war that will end it?

Yes, Russia is ready to start, fight and win a nuclear war against Ukraine, Europe and/or the USA if it's necessary to eliminate Kievan regime (while we do prefer to achieve this goal mostly political and diplomatic way, as we do now).
Can't be sure about China (including Taiwan) but Taiwanese now more think about "What can we do to not allow Americans defend us?" That's why their Parliament blocked buying weapons from the USA, and many Taiwanese politicians are already negotiating with CCP about terms of reunion.

Is China ready to risk such a fate. Putin and Xi may be **** ups, but they are smart enough to realize they have nothing to gain by starting a nuclear was over Iran, apparently you are not that smart.

First of all, there are a lot of things they can gain. If the regional nuclear war starts and if they win Russia and Iran are going to take all the oil of the Gulf and make "gas OPEC" which control petro market to decades to come. Then, Russia will got their corridor "North-South" from Arkhangelsk to Karachi. China will make petro-yuan sistem and New Silky Way.

 

[multivita-man]

Most of the US aircraft shot down were drones. Four F 15's and one A 10 were shot down. One F 35 was damaged but returned to base safely. The allies absolutely have air dominance; there is no place in Iran that cannot safely be destroyed.

They do not. If they did, Iran would be in far worse shape than they are in now.

The Iranian regime is afraid of the consequences of attacking a navy ship, nor of the "perception" of it.

They're not afraid of the US Navy. Are they looking to confront them? No, of course not, but if the Navy wants to try crossing into the Persian Gulf, they can try. I don't think they'll ever leave, though.

If Trump gave the order, Iran's oil refineries and fuel storage tanks could b destroyed, leaving the regime and IRGC with no fuel. and after lunch the US could take out the regime's power plants, leaving the regime and IRGC with no electricity. If necessary, the bridges could be destroyed and then its ports could be destroyed, and before you whine about running out of munitions, the US has an almost endless supply of JDAMS.

Which they can't use without a significant risk of getting airmen knocked out of the sky and either killed or taken hostage. As I said, the US does not have air dominance.

But you are right about one thing, the only thing that can save the regime is the Democratic Party.

I never said any such thing. You can't rebut what I say with facts, so you just pull "Dumbocrats" out of your ass.

 

[toomuchtime_]

They do not. If they did, Iran would be in far worse shape than they are in now.



They're not afraid of the US Navy. Are they looking to confront them? No, of course not, but if the Navy wants to try crossing into the Persian Gulf, they can try. I don't think they'll ever leave, though.



Which they can't use without a significant risk of getting airmen knocked out of the sky and either killed or taken hostage. As I said, the US does not have air dominance.



I never said any such thing. You can't rebut what I say with facts, so you just pull "Dumbocrats" out of your ass.

The US and Israeli F-35's have flown thousands of missions over Iran with only one US F-35 being damaged. They clearly have air dominance, and that means they can attack and destroy any place in Iran with minimal risk.

This means that if the IRGC were stupid enough to attack a navy ship, the US could quickly destroy their fuel supply and electricity, leaving them using mules to move their formerly mobile missile launchers and lanterns to see at night.

You said, quite rightly, that the IRGC is waiting and hoping political pressure will force Trump to back off, and the only entity that could possibly bring that kind of pressure is the Democratic Party, so yes you did say that.