WelfareQueen
Diamond Member
This is not a trolling thread...okay...so my Democrat friends can relax. However, the first in the nation primary in Iowa does not bode well for the Democrat Party in 2016. The reason: Turnout.
All elections basically come down to turnout. In 2008 and 2012 Obama had about a +8% turnout advantage. The GOP could not overcome Obama's turnout advantage. This advantage was highlighted in the 2008 Iowa Primary where the Democrats and Obama had significantly more enthusiasm in their primary than the GOP.
In the 2014 mid-terms the GOP had a +4.5% turnout advantage and won control of the Senate. It is interesting to note most polling organizations got 2014 wrong.....very wrong.....predicting only a +1.5% GOP advantage. This is the reason the polling in Senate races in Colorado, Kentucky, and Kansas for example, were so far off.
That brings us to the 2016 Iowa Primary. The GOP had a 5.2% turnout advantage according to ABC News. This bodes very poorly for the Democrat Party in the 2016 election cycle. Of course....Iowa is only one state, but turnout in Iowa in the 2008 primary accurately reflected Obama's advantage in the general election.
I would recommend everyone watch the turnout in New Hampshire closely. If the GOP again beats the Democrats, 2016 could prove to be a down election cycle.
Bustle
All elections basically come down to turnout. In 2008 and 2012 Obama had about a +8% turnout advantage. The GOP could not overcome Obama's turnout advantage. This advantage was highlighted in the 2008 Iowa Primary where the Democrats and Obama had significantly more enthusiasm in their primary than the GOP.
In the 2014 mid-terms the GOP had a +4.5% turnout advantage and won control of the Senate. It is interesting to note most polling organizations got 2014 wrong.....very wrong.....predicting only a +1.5% GOP advantage. This is the reason the polling in Senate races in Colorado, Kentucky, and Kansas for example, were so far off.
That brings us to the 2016 Iowa Primary. The GOP had a 5.2% turnout advantage according to ABC News. This bodes very poorly for the Democrat Party in the 2016 election cycle. Of course....Iowa is only one state, but turnout in Iowa in the 2008 primary accurately reflected Obama's advantage in the general election.
I would recommend everyone watch the turnout in New Hampshire closely. If the GOP again beats the Democrats, 2016 could prove to be a down election cycle.
Bustle