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The Iowa Primary May Predict Bad Tidings for Democrats in 2016

WelfareQueen

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This is not a trolling thread...okay...so my Democrat friends can relax. However, the first in the nation primary in Iowa does not bode well for the Democrat Party in 2016. The reason: Turnout.

All elections basically come down to turnout. In 2008 and 2012 Obama had about a +8% turnout advantage. The GOP could not overcome Obama's turnout advantage. This advantage was highlighted in the 2008 Iowa Primary where the Democrats and Obama had significantly more enthusiasm in their primary than the GOP.

In the 2014 mid-terms the GOP had a +4.5% turnout advantage and won control of the Senate. It is interesting to note most polling organizations got 2014 wrong.....very wrong.....predicting only a +1.5% GOP advantage. This is the reason the polling in Senate races in Colorado, Kentucky, and Kansas for example, were so far off.

That brings us to the 2016 Iowa Primary. The GOP had a 5.2% turnout advantage according to ABC News. This bodes very poorly for the Democrat Party in the 2016 election cycle. Of course....Iowa is only one state, but turnout in Iowa in the 2008 primary accurately reflected Obama's advantage in the general election.

I would recommend everyone watch the turnout in New Hampshire closely. If the GOP again beats the Democrats, 2016 could prove to be a down election cycle.




Bustle
 

Zander

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You might be right. I don't know any Democrats that are excited about hiLIARy....and only the looniest LWNJ's are excited about Crackpot Sanders.
 

hadit

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This is not a trolling thread...okay...so my Democrat friends can relax. However, the first in the nation primary in Iowa does not bode well for the Democrat Party in 2016. The reason: Turnout.

All elections basically come down to turnout. In 2008 and 2012 Obama had about a +8% turnout advantage. The GOP could not overcome Obama's turnout advantage. This advantage was highlighted in the 2008 Iowa Primary where the Democrats and Obama had significantly more enthusiasm in their primary than the GOP.

In the 2014 mid-terms the GOP had a +4.5% turnout advantage and won control of the Senate. It is interesting to note most polling organizations got 2014 wrong.....very wrong.....predicting only a +1.5% GOP advantage. This is the reason the polling in Senate races in Colorado, Kentucky, and Kansas for example, were so far off.

That brings us to the 2016 Iowa Primary. The GOP had a 5.2% turnout advantage according to ABC News. This bodes very poorly for the Democrat Party in the 2016 election cycle. Of course....Iowa is only one state, but turnout in Iowa in the 2008 primary accurately reflected Obama's advantage in the general election.

I would recommend everyone watch the turnout in New Hampshire closely. If the GOP again beats the Democrats, 2016 could prove to be a down election cycle.




Bustle
That would be so cool.
 

hadit

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You might be right. I don't know any Democrats that are excited about hiLIARy....and only the looniest LWNJ's are excited about Crackpot Sanders.
That is true. There is very little excitement about Hillary. She's a terrible candidate.
 

theDoctorisIn

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You're right that the Dems have an enthusiasm problem - particularly Hillary. But I wouldn't put too much stock in early primary turnout as a bellwether of partisan turnout in the general. Republicans have their own problems in the general too - they have an electoral math disadvantage to overcome.

This is already an interesting cycle, and it's only going to get more interesting.
 
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WelfareQueen

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You're right that the Dems have an enthusiasm problem - particularly Hillary. But I wouldn't put too much stock in early primary turnout as a bellwether of partisan turnout in the general. Republicans have their own problems in the general too - they have an electoral math disadvantage to overcome.

This is already an interesting cycle, and it's only going to get more interesting.


The electoral math issue is interesting because most attribute the election math to the Obama turnout model. Personally, I think a number of "blue" states will turn red this election cycle. I think Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and even Minnesota are in play. I think New Hampshire, Virginia, Nevada and New Mexico could flip as well with the right candidate. I guess we'll all see in November. Ohio and Florida remain the true toss ups imho.
 

Ravi

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Dems will vote for either candidate that runs against Trump, Cruz, or Rubio. It's really the Repubs that will have a turnout problem in the end: Disgruntled Trump and Cruz supporters will not vote.
 

theDoctorisIn

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You're right that the Dems have an enthusiasm problem - particularly Hillary. But I wouldn't put too much stock in early primary turnout as a bellwether of partisan turnout in the general. Republicans have their own problems in the general too - they have an electoral math disadvantage to overcome.

This is already an interesting cycle, and it's only going to get more interesting.


The electoral math issue is interesting because most attribute the election math to the Obama turnout model. Personally, I think a number of "blue" states will turn red this election cycle. I think Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and even Minnesota are in play. I think New Hampshire, Virginia, Nevada and New Mexico could flip as well with the right candidate. I guess we'll all see in November. Ohio and Florida remain the true toss ups imho.

Even with Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Virginia, Nevada, New Hampshire and New Mexico in play, the Dems are still ahead 217-191 out of the gate.

I don't think Minnesota is close to being in play, but even if it were, the Dems are still ahead 207-191
 
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WelfareQueen

WelfareQueen

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You're right that the Dems have an enthusiasm problem - particularly Hillary. But I wouldn't put too much stock in early primary turnout as a bellwether of partisan turnout in the general. Republicans have their own problems in the general too - they have an electoral math disadvantage to overcome.

This is already an interesting cycle, and it's only going to get more interesting.


The electoral math issue is interesting because most attribute the election math to the Obama turnout model. Personally, I think a number of "blue" states will turn red this election cycle. I think Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and even Minnesota are in play. I think New Hampshire, Virginia, Nevada and New Mexico could flip as well with the right candidate. I guess we'll all see in November. Ohio and Florida remain the true toss ups imho.

Even with Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Virginia, Nevada, New Hampshire and New Mexico in play, the Dems are still ahead 217-191 out of the gate.

I don't think Minnesota is close to being in play, but even if it were, the Dems are still ahead 207-191


Larry Sabato has it 247 to 206 currently. Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2016 President


He got every State correct in 2008 and 2012. Of course, this far in advance no ones knows for sure. However, I agree with your central point. By any measure the Dems appear to have an electoral advantage.
 

saveliberty

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The if in all of this is, can Republicans rally around the eventual candidate? Could just be a bunch of fracturing.
 

Weatherman2020

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This is not a trolling thread...okay...so my Democrat friends can relax. However, the first in the nation primary in Iowa does not bode well for the Democrat Party in 2016. The reason: Turnout.

All elections basically come down to turnout. In 2008 and 2012 Obama had about a +8% turnout advantage. The GOP could not overcome Obama's turnout advantage. This advantage was highlighted in the 2008 Iowa Primary where the Democrats and Obama had significantly more enthusiasm in their primary than the GOP.

In the 2014 mid-terms the GOP had a +4.5% turnout advantage and won control of the Senate. It is interesting to note most polling organizations got 2014 wrong.....very wrong.....predicting only a +1.5% GOP advantage. This is the reason the polling in Senate races in Colorado, Kentucky, and Kansas for example, were so far off.

That brings us to the 2016 Iowa Primary. The GOP had a 5.2% turnout advantage according to ABC News. This bodes very poorly for the Democrat Party in the 2016 election cycle. Of course....Iowa is only one state, but turnout in Iowa in the 2008 primary accurately reflected Obama's advantage in the general election.

I would recommend everyone watch the turnout in New Hampshire closely. If the GOP again beats the Democrats, 2016 could prove to be a down election cycle.




Bustle
Bernie and Hillary are very two distinct candidates with little in common. No matter which wins, a lot of Democrats will be staying home in November.
 

Zander

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Regarding GOP voter turnout - Republicans would vote for Jimmy Carter over hiLIARy. If she is the nominee, which seems likely, GOP turnout will be historic. Hate motivates!
 

JimH52

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The if in all of this is, can Republicans rally around the eventual candidate? Could just be a bunch of fracturing.

Trump as the nominee will leave many dedicated conservative sitting at home. He is neither conservative or religious.
 

Interpol

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After two terms out of the White House, Republican voters are energized for sure, but their disadvantage is that they're perceived as clowns by the public outside of their bubble, while inside the bubble they're a more seriously fractured party.

On the Democratic side, Hillary supporters would melt into Bernie supporters and vice versa no matter who wins, but their problem is driving out the under-30 voters that Obama attracted in droves, and which won him very healthy margins of victory both times. They have to not show up and Republicans need to get behind their pick to win the White House. Both of those things need to happen for them to win while only the under-30 thing needs to happen for Dems to win.

The electoral map favors Democrats. Some blue states can flip, but I just don't see Florida going with the side that says they want to privatize old people's healthcare. They'll never let that happen.
 
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WelfareQueen

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Preliminary raw vote totals in New Hampshire. GOP 272,000 Dems 241,000.

Another huge turnout advantage for the GOP. Again.....really bad news for the Democrats. Without question the enthusiasm this election cycle appears to be on the GOP side.
 

JimH52

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Its the Reality Show star. Sort of a shame that the GOP is stuck with the circus clown.
 

hadit

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The wild card this go round is the FBI. If they recommend indictment for Hillary, the democrat advantage evaporates overnight. If not, it gets ugly when she turns the Clinton smear machine on full blast. Her only advantage at this point is the sheer number of uninformed voters who think nothing deeper than, "Hillary, woman, good", and since she doesn't inspire and isn't likable she's going to have to be negative and nasty.
 

JimH52

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The wild card this go round is the FBI. If they recommend indictment for Hillary, the democrat advantage evaporates overnight. If not, it gets ugly when she turns the Clinton smear machine on full blast. Her only advantage at this point is the sheer number of uninformed voters who think nothing deeper than, "Hillary, woman, good", and since she doesn't inspire and isn't likable she's going to have to be negative and nasty.

And Trump is never "negative and nasty." GOTCHA!

His negatives are so high among independent voters, that an indictment will be the only thing that could keep Hillary from being the first female President. And somehow, you gotta think, that the WH and the Dems already know what the word from the FBI is going to be,

Wait until the slime on Donald begins to leak out...:ack-1:
 

hadit

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The wild card this go round is the FBI. If they recommend indictment for Hillary, the democrat advantage evaporates overnight. If not, it gets ugly when she turns the Clinton smear machine on full blast. Her only advantage at this point is the sheer number of uninformed voters who think nothing deeper than, "Hillary, woman, good", and since she doesn't inspire and isn't likable she's going to have to be negative and nasty.

And Trump is never "negative and nasty." GOTCHA!

His negatives are so high among independent voters, that an indictment will be the only thing that could keep Hillary from being the first female President. And somehow, you gotta think, that the WH and the Dems already know what the word from the FBI is going to be,

Wait until the slime on Donald begins to leak out...:ack-1:
Nope, Trump's as nasty as they get. That's why the next year is going to be one of the nastiest campaign seasons in the last century. It will be entertaining, though, because democrats have gotten used to Republicans trying to act like statesmen and not fighting dirty. I think Trump will easily get under Hillary's skin and reduce her to incoherent shrieks.
 

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