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The Impending End of Islam: Danger

PoliticalChic

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1. Political science is at a loss in the face of demographic decline, and the consequences thereof. Political theory is based on the principle of nations’ rational self-interest…but if a nation is at the doorstep of extinction, we can imagine “Spengler’s Universal Law: A nation at the brink of death does not have a ‘rational self-interest.’”

a. Conventional geopolitical theory, based on material factors, cannot address how peoples will behave under such existential threats.

2. Muslim fertility is shrinking at a rate demographers have never seen before, converging on Europe’s catastrophically low fertility.

a. Iranian women who grew up with five or six siblings will bear only one or two children in their lifetimes.

b. Turkey and Algeria are just behind Iran in this regard, and most of the other Muslim nations are catching up (down?) quickly!

c. By mid-century, the belt of Muslim counties from Morocco to Iran will become as grey as depopulating Europe, and will have the same proportion of dependent elderly as the industrial countries- but with one tenth the productivity!!

3. With population collapse imminent, radical Islam becomes ever more dangerous, as the taste of their ruin proving to them that they have nothing to lose, and, confronting fertility death, might very well choose to go down in a blaze of (nuclear) glory!

4. European apathy is the flip side of Islamic extremism, both losing their connection with the past, and their confidence in the future, between European resignation with cultural extinction and the Islamist boast “You love life, we love death!’

5. Factors associated with population decline include urbanization, education and literacy, modernization.

a. Children had an economic value in a traditional, agricultural society. Pension systems turned children into a cost rather providers for the elderly.

b. Female literacy is a powerful predictor of population decline. Literate and affluent women have one or two children, not six or eight. The determination between one, or two, is often religious faith: the industrial world’s lowest fertility rates are found among the Eastern European nations where atheism was the official ideology for generations. The highest rates are associated with nations such as the United States and Israel, with relatively high religious populations. Where faith goes, fertility vanishes. This is not to say that all faiths are equal in this regard: the fastest decline is taking place in Muslim countries.

6. The secularism that our world offers as the alternative to religion exposes the emptiness, and the lack of fecundity that it proposes.

a. “The weakest link in the secular account of human nature is that it fails to account for people’s powerful desire to seek immortality for themselves and their loved ones,” so says sociologist Eric Kaufman, in “Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth? Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century,” p. 19.

7. After literacy, the next largest indicator of family size is religious practice. The more frequently Muslims attend mosque, the more likely they are to have a big family. A third of the 88% literate Turks never attend mosque, as is true of the 82% literate Iranians; in both countries fertility is below replacement. But only a fifth of Egyptians never visit a mosque, and fertility is up to about three.

a. In nations such as Pakistan, Bangladesh and Egypt, worship is high, literacy low, fertility rates high, poverty high, unemployment high, social instability high.

b. In nations such as Iran, Turkey, Tunisia, Algeria, there is a high degree of literacy, but face a more devastating degree of social failure in the form of a dearth of children.

Above based on “How Civilizations Die,” by David P. Goldman.
 

Jos

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Hows the North American fertility doing?
 
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PoliticalChic

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Hows the North American fertility doing?

By the end of the century, Western Europe’s economically active population will fall by two-fifths, Eastern Europe and East Asia by two-thirds. Russia is facing a demographic death spiral.

In the United States, it will grow by about a quarter.

The United States growth rate is, I believe, 2.1...
...and owes this largely to religion.
Evangelicals have 2.6 children per...

...Hispanics also high.
 
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PoliticalChic

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This "feel-good"-thread is far from reality and is based on a book of a religious Jew who also has a pseudonym as a writer, which he failed to hide whilst wishing death to the Arabs.

‘Spengler’ unwittingly outs himself as David P. Goldman
I Believe Pseudonymous Salesman of Zionism to Catholics Is David Goldman–Neocon and Former LaRouchie

1. Actually, I have been aware of everything about Goodman's background.

2. On what basis do you claim this is a "feel-good" thread?

3. What is the significance of the author's religion?

4. Did you find anything in the OP to support 'wishing death to the Arabs'?

5. Did you find any errors to which you can point?

6. Did you read the book? It is fully documeneted and foot-noted.


Let me offer some other points by the author, and you see if can find reasons- other than your bigotry- to find fault with....(if I can end a sentence with a preposition).


1. Europe took 200 years to go from high fertility rates of rural life to the low fertility rates of the industrial world. Iran, Turkey, Tunisia, and Algeria are about to do it in twenty. It is the fastest population decline in recorded history.

a. Hania Zlotnik, director of the population division at the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, said “In most of the Islamic world it’s amazing, the decline in fertility that has happened,’’ … From 1975 to 1980, women in Iran were giving birth to nearly 7 children per family, according to the latest U.N. population report; from 2005 to 2010 that number is expected to be less than 2. U.N. Sees Falling Middle East Fertility Rates - NYTimes.com

b. Iranian women who grew up with five or six siblings will bear only one or two children in their lifetimes.

c. By mid-century, the belt of Muslim counties from Morocco to Iran will become as grey as depopulating Europe, and will have the same proportion of dependent elderly as the industrial countries- but with one tenth the productivity!!

2. Today there are 9 Iranians of working age for every elderly dependent. By 2050, at the retirement age for most Iranians, there will be more Iranians in their mid sixties than in any other age bracket: seven elderly for every ten working Iranians. And, this is a nation that has a $4,400 per capita, which is about one-tenth of America’s GDP.

a. While industrial nations are wealthy enough to cushion the impact, and support its elderly- not so with Egypt, Indonesia, Algeria, Iran and Pakistan.

b. Even Turkey, with a semi-modern economy, has only about one quarter the GDP of Europe.

3. Can they reverse the trend? Hardly…the 25-year-old’s mother had married in her teens, and had several children by this time. The modern Iranian spent the time in school or working- if she can find a job.


Actually, Ekky...I fully understand your hostility...
Having no way to rebut the facts in Goldman's book, you choose to see it as an attack on Arabs...or Islam...or Turks.

Being none of the above, I don't quite see it as such. Rather, as an interesting exposition to which I had not been exposes.
Nor, I assume, had you.

Are you prepared to argue that literate, well-paid women continue to have large
numbers of children? Or that more religious folks, Muslim, Jewish, Christian, don't have
more children?
Or that modernity tends to restrict the size of families?
I thought not.
Well, why not simply attack the messenger, if you can't attack
the message....oh, you already did!

I suggest that you pick up a copy of the book, and then see what you think.
Is that too intellectual?
 
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PoliticalChic

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This "feel-good"-thread is far from reality and is based on a book of a religious Jew who also has a pseudonym as a writer, which he failed to hide whilst wishing death to the Arabs.

‘Spengler’ unwittingly outs himself as David P. Goldman
I Believe Pseudonymous Salesman of Zionism to Catholics Is David Goldman–Neocon and Former LaRouchie

You know, I can see where the OP title might get under your skin...
...I just thought it might be catchy, get people's attention.

But if that is your problem, I apologize. It was not meant as a 'wish.'
 

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The average age in these countries is much different than in Europe.
Turkey will reach same society composition (age-structure) of Germany in 2038 if fertility rate stays the way it is.

I don't know specifics about other countries like Iran, but what I know is, that there are lots of young and fertile people in those countries and the "point-of-no-return" hasn't been reached like with indigenious population in Europe, and therefore all "predictions" for "young societies" are just snapshots.
 

ekrem

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1/3rd of all new-borns in Germany are children from immigrant-families, without even counting children from 2nd and 3rd generation as immigrants.
Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland - Knapp die Hälfte der Großstadtkinder aus Familien mit Migrationshintergrund

If you substract the children of 2nd and 3rd generation immigrants, who are counted as German, and compare population size of Germans vs. Immigrants than you get a picture of how old the average German really is.
There's no point of return, just like in many other European countries.

The picture is different in most Muslim countries with falling fertility rates as the overall young average age in these countries allows for adjustments. A "baby boom" can happen any year/s within the indigenious population.
 
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PoliticalChic

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1/3rd of all new-borns in Germany are children from immigrant-families, without even counting children from 2nd and 3rd generation as immigrants.
Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland - Knapp die Hälfte der Großstadtkinder aus Familien mit Migrationshintergrund

If you substract the children of 2nd and 3rd generation immigrants, who are counted as German, and compare population size of Germans vs. Immigrants than you get a picture of how old the average German really is.
There's no point of return, just like in many other European countries.

The picture is different in most Muslim countries with falling fertility rates as the overall young average age in these countries allows for adjustments. A "baby boom" can happen any year/s within the indigenious population.

There is no doubt that nations, including the United States, benefit from immigrants, i.e., Germany and Turkish immigrants.

But as far as the Muslim nations in question, you are making a great mistake to ignore the factors recounted in the thread...

Literacy...

Empowerment of women....

Rising standard of living, urbanization,...

Secularization and less religious attendance.....


You cannot reverse these factors, nor the reality that results.....
...and that is why you choose to ignore them. There will be no
'baby boom' in said nations.

You won't deal with it, but on some level people acknowledge same...and
that is related to Goldman' thesis that radical Islam becomes more
dangerous
when it incorporates the idea that it's goal for Islam becomes
ever more difficult when it confronts modernity.
 

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This "feel-good"-thread is far from reality and is based on a book of a religious Jew who also has a pseudonym as a writer, which he failed to hide whilst wishing death to the Arabs.

‘Spengler’ unwittingly outs himself as David P. Goldman
I Believe Pseudonymous Salesman of Zionism to Catholics Is David Goldman–Neocon and Former LaRouchie

Ex-Muslim Dr. Wafa Sultan, Among Time magazine's 100 men and women whose power, talent or moral example is transforming our world: ISLAM IS A MENTAL DISORDER
When I examined the Koran, the hadiths and the Islamic books under my microscope, I came to the absolute conviction that it is impossible--IMPOSSIBLE-- for any human being to read the biography of Muhammad and believe in it and yet emerge a psychologically and mentally healthy person.

Do you remember the way that Muhammad killed Asma bint Marwan? His followers tore her body apart limb from limb while she was breastfeeding her child. When they returned to him shouting, "Allah Akbar," he said: "Two goats would lock horns over her." As you know, goats lock horns over the most inconsequential thing. For Muhammad, however, the killing of a woman while breastfeeding was too trivial an incident for goats to lock horns over. Is this a prophet of God?

The language of Islam is a negative, dead language, replete with violence, anger, hatred and racism. Man is a product of his language, the outcome of the negative and positive language to which he is exposed in his lifetime. If his life is dominated by negative language, he will emerge as a negative, reckless and non-productive person who rejects everything. This is why the negative language of Islam has failed. It has failed to produce people with a positive outlook. It has produced negative people. If we take a look at Islamic societies, we see what that negative man [Muhammad] did.

Islam is a political doctrine which imposes itself by force. Any doctrine whatsoever that calls to kill those who do not believe in it is not a religion. It is a totalitarian doctrine that imposes itself by force.

Read about the life of Muhammad. What do you find there? Nothing but his raids and and his wives. I shudder when I hear the hadith: A woman's paradise is under her husband's foot. The Islamc teachings have become dreadful in the skulls of the Muslims. I see no alternative butr to open these skulls and to clean the life-threatening cancerous cells in these brains.
[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OUp7QLyjWLk]Wafa Sultan about the "Prophet" Muhammad! - YouTube[/ame]
 
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PoliticalChic

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There will be no 'baby boom' in said nations.

Why, because you don't want it?

What is the matter with you!!!


There is nothing, no part, of any posts that are 'what I want.'
You must realize that these are facts, since you have not tried to
rebut them....


Why don't you simply show how any of the factors that I just provided will reverse themselves?

Go ahead...
Didn't think so.

And, if you are capable, consider this> backward societies and civilizations, when exposed to the technological world, often collapse..and worse, resort to self-immolation, to suicide...

Consider the following:
a. “It’s been called suicide contagion or cluster deaths – the phenomenon of Indigenous people, particularly men from the same community taking their own lives at an alarming rate.” http://www.cdu.edu.au/newsroom/origins/edition1-2007/origins1-2007-suicide-contagion.pdf

b. Canada has reported same for First Nation communities and Inuits. http://www.ahf.ca/downloads/suicide.pdf

c. “THE largest tribe of Amazonian Indians, the 27,000-strong Guarani, are being devastated by a wave of suicides among their children, triggered by their coming into contact with the modern world.” Rising suicides cut a swath through Amazon's children - Telegraph


About whom are we speaking? Consider this:

"Indeed, the total number of books translated into Arabic during the 1,000 years since the age of Caliph Al-Ma’moun [a ninth-century Arab ruler who was a patron of cultural interaction between Arab, Persian, and Greek scholars—WPR] to this day is less than those translated in Spain in one year."
Arab Human Development Report - Worldpress.org

What happens when these folks become literate, and find out what the modern world is like?
 

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What happens when these folks become literate, and find out what the modern world is like?

Islam is ignorant. Muhammad was an illiterate cave dwelling bum until he married a wealthy woman. After she died, he resorted to a career of hijacking caravans and invading other peoples' towns and stealing their possessions.

Islam says the mind is like a donkey and you leave the donkey outside when you enter the house of allah.

Not surprisingly, one third of all Arabs, most of whom are Muslims, are illiterate and half of all Arab women are illiterate, according to the Arab League, and the Muslim world is last in every metric from education to healthcare to scientific research to productivity to industrial development
 
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PoliticalChic

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What happens when these folks become literate, and find out what the modern world is like?

Islam is ignorant. Muhammad was an illiterate cave dwelling bum until he married a wealthy woman. After she died, he resorted to a career of hijacking caravans and invading other peoples' towns and stealing their possessions.

Islam says the mind is like a donkey and you leave the donkey outside when you enter the house of allah.

Not surprisingly, one third of all Arabs, most of whom are Muslims, are illiterate and half of all Arab women are illiterate, according to the Arab League, and the Muslim world is last in every metric from education to healthcare to scientific research to productivity to industrial development

This is not one of your threads when you cast aspersions, far and wide....but rather a sociological revelation as to factors that will result in a diminution of Muslim populations.

It not only has nothing to do with aspects that you claim for Muslims, in general...but will have no effect on wealthy, well-educated Islamist radicals such as those who flew planes into the Twin Towers.
 

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What happens when these folks become literate, and find out what the modern world is like?

Islam is ignorant. Muhammad was an illiterate cave dwelling bum until he married a wealthy woman. After she died, he resorted to a career of hijacking caravans and invading other peoples' towns and stealing their possessions.

Islam says the mind is like a donkey and you leave the donkey outside when you enter the house of allah.

Not surprisingly, one third of all Arabs, most of whom are Muslims, are illiterate and half of all Arab women are illiterate, according to the Arab League, and the Muslim world is last in every metric from education to healthcare to scientific research to productivity to industrial development

This is not one of your threads when you cast aspersions, far and wide....but rather a sociological revelation as to factors that will result in a diminution of Muslim populations.

It not only has nothing to do with aspects that you claim for Muslims, in general...but will have no effect on wealthy, well-educated Islamist radicals such as those who flew planes into the Twin Towers.

Islamist radicals? What kind of bullshit are you even talking about? The concept of Islamist radicals is post-9/11 Western politically correctness to make Muslims feel better about themselves. There is only one version of Islam: Islam.
 

freedombecki

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What happens when these folks become literate, and find out what the modern world is like?

Islam is ignorant. Muhammad was an illiterate cave dwelling bum until he married a wealthy woman. After she died, he resorted to a career of hijacking caravans and invading other peoples' towns and stealing their possessions.

Islam says the mind is like a donkey and you leave the donkey outside when you enter the house of allah.

Not surprisingly, one third of all Arabs, most of whom are Muslims, are illiterate and half of all Arab women are illiterate, according to the Arab League, and the Muslim world is last in every metric from education to healthcare to scientific research to productivity to industrial development
Kuwait Literacy Rate: 98%
Qatar Literacy rate: 99%
Oman Literacy rate: 98%
Iran Not reported in 2007
Saudi Arabia Literacy rate: 97%
Iraq Literacy rate: 82%
Afghanistan Literacy rate not reported in 2007
Israel Literacy rate not reported in 2007

 

JStone

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What happens when these folks become literate, and find out what the modern world is like?

Islam is ignorant. Muhammad was an illiterate cave dwelling bum until he married a wealthy woman. After she died, he resorted to a career of hijacking caravans and invading other peoples' towns and stealing their possessions.

Islam says the mind is like a donkey and you leave the donkey outside when you enter the house of allah.

Not surprisingly, one third of all Arabs, most of whom are Muslims, are illiterate and half of all Arab women are illiterate, according to the Arab League, and the Muslim world is last in every metric from education to healthcare to scientific research to productivity to industrial development
Kuwait Literacy Rate: 98%
Qatar Literacy rate: 99%
Oman Literacy rate: 98%
Iran Not reported in 2007
Saudi Arabia Literacy rate: 97%
Iraq Literacy rate: 82%
Afghanistan Literacy rate not reported in 2007
Israel Literacy rate not reported in 2007


One-third of 350 million Arabs, most Muslims, and half of all Arab women are illiterate, according to the Arab League.

The Muslim world is last in human rights, education, literacy, healthcare, scientific research,productivity and industrial development.

Combined GDP of 22 Arab countries, minus oil, is less than that of Spain.
 
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PoliticalChic

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Islam is ignorant. Muhammad was an illiterate cave dwelling bum until he married a wealthy woman. After she died, he resorted to a career of hijacking caravans and invading other peoples' towns and stealing their possessions.

Islam says the mind is like a donkey and you leave the donkey outside when you enter the house of allah.

Not surprisingly, one third of all Arabs, most of whom are Muslims, are illiterate and half of all Arab women are illiterate, according to the Arab League, and the Muslim world is last in every metric from education to healthcare to scientific research to productivity to industrial development

This is not one of your threads when you cast aspersions, far and wide....but rather a sociological revelation as to factors that will result in a diminution of Muslim populations.

It not only has nothing to do with aspects that you claim for Muslims, in general...but will have no effect on wealthy, well-educated Islamist radicals such as those who flew planes into the Twin Towers.

Islamist radicals? What kind of bullshit are you even talking about? The concept of Islamist radicals is post-9/11 Western politically correctness to make Muslims feel better about themselves. There is only one version of Islam: Islam.

Sad, Stoned, when rage takes precedent over education...

...let's see if I can put you back on the right track:

The following is from a speech by Bernard Lewis
Cleveland E. Dodge Professor Emeritus of Near Eastern Studies, Princeton University.

It is an eye-opener, if not an epiphany.

1. To view traditional Islamic leadership, consider this letter by Mssr. Count de Choiseul-Gouffier, the French ambassador in Istanbul, written in 1786, in which he is trying to explain why he is making rather slow progress with the tasks entrusted to him by his government in dealing with the Ottoman government. “Here,” he says, “things are not as in France where the king is sole master and does as he pleases.” “Here,” he says, “the sultan has to consult.” He has to consult with the former holders of high offices, with the leaders of various groups and so on. And this is a slow process. This scenario is something radically different than the common image of Middle Eastern government today. And it is a description that ceased to be true because of a number of changes that occurred.

a. Modernization: This was undertaken not by imperialists, for the most part, but by Middle Eastern rulers who had become painfully aware that their societies were undeveloped compared with the advanced Western world. These rulers decided that what they had to do was to modernize or Westernize. Their intentions were good, but the consequences were often disastrous. What they did was to increase the power of the state and the ruler enormously by placing at his disposal the whole modern apparatus of control, repression and indoctrination. In the traditional society there were established orders-the bazaar merchants, the scribes, the guilds, the country gentry, the military establishment, the religious establishment, and so on. These were powerful groups in society, whose heads were not appointed by the ruler but arose from within the groups. And no sultan, however powerful, could do much without maintaining some relationship with these different orders in society. This is not democracy as we currently use that word, but it is certainly limited, responsible government. And the system worked. Modernization ended that.

b. In the year 1940, the government of France surrendered to the Axis and formed a collaborationist government in a place called Vichy. The French colonial empire was, for the most part, beyond the reach of the Nazis, which meant that the governors of the French colonies had a free choice: To stay with Vichy or to join Charles de Gaulle, who had set up a Free French Committee in London. The overwhelming majority chose Vichy, which meant that Syria-Lebanon—a French-mandated territory in the heart of the Arab East—was now wide open to the Nazis. The Nazis moved in, made a tremendous propaganda effort, and were even able to move from Syria eastwards into Iraq and for a while set up a pro-Nazi, fascist regime. It was in this period that political parties were formed that were the nucleus of what later became the Baath Party. A few after the war, the Soviets moved in, established an immensely powerful presence in Egypt, Syria, Iraq and various other countries, and introduced Soviet-style political practice. The adaptation from the Nazi model to the communist model was very simple and easy, requiring only a few minor adjustments.

2. Two other factors added to the mix produce the picture we see today.
a. The first of these—founded by a theologian called Ibn Abd al-Wahhab, who lived in a remote area of Najd in desert Arabia—is known as Wahhabi. Its argument is that the root of Arab-Islamic troubles lies in following the ways of the infidel.

b. The other important thing that happened—also in the mid-20s—was the discovery of oil. With that, this extremist sect found itself not only in possession of Mecca and Medina, but also of wealth beyond the dreams of avarice. As a result, what would otherwise have been a lunatic fringe in a marginal country became a major force in the world of Islam. Now, its influence spreads far beyond the region.

3. There are, as I've tried to point out, elements in Islamic society which could well be conducive to democracy. And there are encouraging signs at the present moment—what happened in Iraq, for example, with millions of Iraqis willing to stand in line to vote, knowing that they were risking their lives, is a quite extraordinary achievement. . It's interesting that pro-American feeling is strongest in countries with anti-American governments. I've been told repeatedly by Iranians that there is no country in the world where pro-American feeling is stronger, deeper and more widespread than Iran. I've heard this from so many different Iranians—including some still living in Iran—that I believe it. When the American planes were flying over Afghanistan, the story was that many Iranians put signs on their roofs in English reading, “This way, please.”
https://www.hillsdale.edu/news/imprimis/archive/issue.asp?year=2006&month=09

So, calm down, Stoned....and accept that there are many Muslims very different than the way you portray them.
 

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I am skeptical. Although I wish this to be true, I doubt it. From what I read the birth rate amongst Arabs and Muslims is very higher! In most muslims countries from Turkey to Iran to Algeria to Banglesh the percentage of Muslims making the population is growing. Most are well above 90% some are close to 100%. Even Lebanon, who in the 40s had a Christian majority is most has as low as a 15% to a high 25% Christian minority, has a rapidly growing Muslim population percentage.

In Europe, Muslims are recording the highest birthrates!

I think part of the reason many Muslim countries like Algeria, Morococo, Saudi Arabia and Iran have lower overall population growth rates is they have such high emigration rates, most to the West!

I think Ekrem is right, this is selective analysis. Islam is dying it's unfortuately growing. It's the native populations of the West, East Europe, America, China and Russia that are going down. Europe is hit the hardest. The native population set up the welfare state for it's inhabitants, but many of the poor Muslim immigrates abuse and stretch it to the limits. The natives fund it, therefore, they have smaller families, because that is what they can afford. The Muslim immigrates abuse it and take, therefore, they can have larger families on other people's dime!
 

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