The Gold and Silver Thread

[william the wie]

Thanks for the report, Toro. When you mention internals of metals, what specifically are you referring to and does that include silver? I can't move quickly like you can mainly because I'm ignorant of subject matter when it comes to trading and I'm working on two private companies. Just now got my head into the game on the social networking internet business type company. I read where the groupon founder, started his little social foray two years ago, turned down a 6Billion dollar offer from Google.

I'm considering buying more junk silver if it comes down in the 22 dollar range however, I'm looking more at long term investment and selling at much higher levels. That may be a couple of more years down the road though.

Right now I would not invest for gain. My wife has spent about as much on our vegetable garden and fruit trees as I have made in my accounts this past year mainly finding out what she can grow easily in case of bad times ahead. We paid off our mortgage in 92 so that bill is out of the way and we don't mind spending money but having a secure food and water supply is very important. More important than making a little money in the precious metals market.

 

[Mini 14]

$31 silver today?

My guess is no, it will climb but retreat before the $31 mark, but I think the days of $22/ounce are gone forever. I have been waiting on a fairly big retreat, possibly a collapse, but I am more and more convinced it isn't coming.

Less than 4 months ago, I was laughing/wishing at those who said silver would hit $25 before 2011. Now I'm holding all of mine because I don't think we're anywhere near the peak.

Silver may hit $50 next year.

And I still won't sell.

 

[Toro]

Silver will one day be below $10 again.

 

[william the wie]

Silver will one day be below $10 again.

Given industrial demand and restricted supply I do not understand that post. Are you expecting better recovery techniques, higher demand for resources in which silver is a by-product or what?

 

[LordBrownTrout]

Silver will one day be below $10 again.

I've been watching silver for 7 years now, mining, demand, debt, and I do not see it falling to that level unless we discover new sources and miracuously pay off all of our debt. I'm just not seeing that scenario at all. I'm holding a certain amount until it hits a 100.

 

[william the wie]

Silver will one day be below $10 again.

I've been watching silver for 7 years now, mining, demand, debt, and I do not see it falling to that level unless we discover new sources and miracuously pay off all of our debt. I'm just not seeing that scenario at all. I'm holding a certain amount until it hits a 100.

$10 an ounce is possible but based on what I know extremely improbable that's why I asked if he knew something that I don't.

 

[Toro]

Silver will one day be below $10 again.

Given industrial demand and restricted supply I do not understand that post. Are you expecting better recovery techniques, higher demand for resources in which silver is a by-product or what?

Higher prices will bring on more supply as marginal mines are opened and new mining techniques are discovered.

This is how commodities have always worked. People shouldn't be fooled that "Its different this time." It wasn't different a decade ago when The Economist predicted that oil would fall to $5 a barrel and stay there, and it isn't different today.

 

[liebuster]

Wasn't silver at about $9 ounce after the '08 crash?

 

[Valerie]

Copper ends at new record; gold down
Silver’s up 82% in 2010, while palladium surges nearly 95% in year


Silver flirted with a 30-year high before giving up gains after U.S. data showing a decline in first-time jobless claims pointed to improvement in the labor market.

The trend in metals prices has been notably higher, with several touching multiyear highs recently as investors increasingly find it more desirable and easier to diversify into hard commodities.

“Everywhere investors have looked, they’ve found conflict and problems,” said George Gero, vice president of global futures at RBC Capital Markets. When a safe haven is needed, “for 5,000 years, it has always been gold.”

Gold futures for February delivery /quotes/comstock/21e!f:gc\g11 (GCG11 1,405, -8.40, -0.59%) fell $7.60, or 0.5%, to $1,405.90 an ounce. It was down $1.10 before the jobless-claims data after closing Wednesday at its highest in weeks.

Copper settles at new record; gold falls Metals Stocks - MarketWatch

 

[Valerie]

Wasn't silver at about $9 ounce after the '08 crash?

Yes, at the end of '08 it was in that price range...




Here's a good site for historical graphs in precious metals:


London Fix Historical gold - result

 

[Toro]

Wasn't silver at about $9 ounce after the '08 crash?

Yes. It traded at $3 less than a decade ago.

 

[FireFly]

Silver will one day be below $10 again.

Given industrial demand and restricted supply I do not understand that post. Are you expecting better recovery techniques, higher demand for resources in which silver is a by-product or what?

Higher prices will bring on more supply as marginal mines are opened and new mining techniques are discovered.

This is how commodities have always worked. People shouldn't be fooled that "Its different this time." It wasn't different a decade ago when The Economist predicted that oil would fall to $5 a barrel and stay there, and it isn't different today.

That all depends on the amount of national debt & currency that are created.

 

[Mini 14]

Silver will one day be below $10 again.

And on that same day, pigs will fly!

 

[Toro]

Silver will one day be below $10 again.

And on that same day, pigs will fly!

Your hubris worries me.

Silver was $9 just two years ago.

When I started investing in gold in 2002, people literally laughed in my face. One guy called me an Old Man. I loved hearing stuff like that because it represented deep-seated skepticism. I wound up being the largest shareholder of gold company stocks in my fund in the southeast, or so I was told. Implying that something can't happen is just the opposite.

Investing in precious metals is just that, investing. It is not religion. I may be wrong, but if one ever thinks that something "can't happen" in investing, especially in commodities, one is likely to lose everything they have. There is no asset class - not stocks, not real estate - that is more prone to imposing losses on investors than commodities.

Countless people told me that tech stocks were great investments in 1999. Countless people told me what a great investment housing was in 2006. One day, we will say the same thing about gold and silver.

 

[Toro]

I would beware the Gold Bugs. Gold Bugs do not look at gold as an investment. They look at it as religion. Just as there were false prophets such as George Gilder who lost clients everything after the Tech Bubble collapsed, and just like there were Cassandras of the Housing Bubble such as David Lereah of the National Association of Realtors who wiped out people, the Gold Bugs will hand people their collective heads on a silver (or golden) platter when this is all over. They will not get people out. People's savings will be wiped out.

 

[william the wie]

I would beware the Gold Bugs. Gold Bugs do not look at gold as an investment. They look at it as religion. Just as there were false prophets such as George Gilder who lost clients everything after the Tech Bubble collapsed, and just like there were Cassandras of the Housing Bubble such as David Lereah of the National Association of Realtors who wiped out people, the Gold Bugs will hand people their collective heads on a silver (or golden) platter when this is all over. They will not get people out. People's savings will be wiped out.

By the way except for my teorwawki (the end of the world as we know it) fund I've been lightening up on my holdings. Just wanted to know why you were saying that.

 

[FireFly]

Any drop in gold & silver to prices of years ago will be temporary. If a huge bubble forms & pops we will see a huge decline for a short period as many race for the exit just like crude oil that rose from $10 to $147 before the OCS drilling ban was lifted popping the oil bubble. Even so crude oil did not go back to $10. It briefly dropped to $34 before returning to $92 & climbing to new highs. Gold also corrected at that time from $1050 down to $700. Like crude oil, gold's bottom was 3 times the $250 dollar collapsing starting price. Any large correction is a buying opportunity. The world wide panic debt pay down & increase savings has caused a dollar bubble, not a commodities bubble.

 

[Toro]

I would beware the Gold Bugs. Gold Bugs do not look at gold as an investment. They look at it as religion. Just as there were false prophets such as George Gilder who lost clients everything after the Tech Bubble collapsed, and just like there were Cassandras of the Housing Bubble such as David Lereah of the National Association of Realtors who wiped out people, the Gold Bugs will hand people their collective heads on a silver (or golden) platter when this is all over. They will not get people out. People's savings will be wiped out.

By the way except for my teorwawki (the end of the world as we know it) fund I've been lightening up on my holdings. Just wanted to know why you were saying that.

As a forewarning.

I've been adding to trading positions.

 

[Toro]

Gold and silver getting rocked today, with gold down $30 and silver down $1. Both are selling off in sympathy with other commodities as others such as oil and sugar are also getting hit.

Both are sitting at or near support, with support for gold at $1385 and $29.50 for silver. Next levels of support are $1360 and $29.10 respectively. It is at these levels that both can fall and still be in a rising channel. A fall below could signal the end of the explosion higher that began in September.

Gold was up 30% last year and silver 80%. Usually, when something is up that much in one year, it usually lags the next year.

 

[Oddball]

Investors gotta pay off them Christmas shopping bills, man.