The Gold and Silver Thread

[KissMy]

Where will the funding for the $115 Trillion in US unfunded liabilities come from? See: US Debt Clock

I assume there will be a compromise. 1/3 in cuts, 1/3 in higher tax revenues & 1/3 from currency debasement. So 1/3 of the $115 Trillion unfunded liabilities = $38.33 Trillion in currency debasement over the next 10 years.

NPR says US unfunded liabilities come to $211 Trillion. Clearly this puts way further up shit creek without a paddle.

NPR: A National Debt Of $14 Trillion? Try $211 Trillion

"If you add up all the promises that have been made for spending obligations, including defense expenditures, and you subtract all the taxes that we expect to collect, the difference is $211 trillion. That's the fiscal gap," he says. "That's our true indebtedness."

 

[Toro]

Gold is up $40 at $1690 on the downgrade at 6:30pm on Sunday.

 

[KissMy]

Gold is up $40 at $1690 on the downgrade at 6:30pm on Sunday.

Gold is now over $1,700 an ounce.

ounce Gold Buffalo & Eagle Coins over $1,800.

1/10 ounce Gold Buffalo & Eagle Coins over $201 = $2010 per ounce.

 

[Toro]

$1710 at 6am.

 

[LordBrownTrout]

Damn, why didn't I buy in at $1300.

 

[Trajan]

Gold had a $40 reversal today along with a top 9 stock market sell-off. I am wondering if now that QEII has ended & a austerity bill is now law does this mean deflation is now actually setting in? The dollar may rise & all prices fall until a new QEIII plan is actually implemented.

Gold & Silver may start dropping big like the stock market. There are even rumors of China slowing. We could be again facing global deflation/depression. Until other countries start printing money & or the US cranks up QEIII, we may be in for a slide.

Cash may be King again.

Right now, I'm 92% cash. The rest is mainly property casualty insurance stocks.

Bull markets usually end when monetary conditions are tight, not when they are extraordinarily loose, as they are today. Bull markets usually don't end when monetary conditions begin to tighten either. The last years of the bull markets in technology and housing saw their best years when the Fed was at the end of their tightening cycle, not at the beginning. With the politicians kicking the can down the road and the Fed talking about QE3, the developed world policies remain extraordinarily bullish for precious metals.

Having said that, in the developing world, monetary conditions are either tight or becoming tight. The yield curves in India and Brazil are inverted, while China has been tightening reserve requirements and have been clamping down on housing speculation. This is bearish for precious metals in the near term.

Also, if we are crashing, I do not expect silver and gold to hold up. When we start plummeting, the margin clerks take control, and they will sell whatever they need to get liquid, including gold and silver. Remember, during the Financial Crisis, silver fell from $20 to $8. However, silver went to $50 a few years later.

I am expecting a similar response, as I expect precious metals to eventually enter a parabolic stage in the future. But maybe I'm wrong, I don't know.

actually I read just last week Paulson dumped BAC ( who will mark my words require a bailout) and IF he has an alike position in say, Citicorp. who is up next, he would get liquid on his SPDR (GLD), he could create a correction of say 15-20 % in a heartbeat.......*gulp*.

 

[Trajan]

Speculation is that the ECB will buy Italian and Spanish bonds. If true, this is very bullish for gold and silver, though there may be some knee jerk selling on dollar strengthening.

I thought Italy canceled its auction for this month?

 

[LordBrownTrout]

Time for more silver.

Fed forced to consider fresh stimulus - FT.com

 

[Toro]

At 6am, gold is at $1770.

 

[Toro]

Gold is at risk of topping here. It has fallen nearly $30 from the all time high of $1780 earlier this morning. We can still go higher but the risk of a reversal exists.

Silver is acting poorly. Silver is sitting at support.

 

[Toro]

I think gold is topping here. The Fed statement, which ignited a powerful rally in stocks, is ultimately bullish for precious metals. However, gold is extremely overbought and extended at these levels, and is showing classical topping behavior. Silver has been and continues to act poorly. I may even put a small short on gold. But I think that after a pullback, gold ultimately goes higher, and I will look to reload on the long side.

 

[KissMy]

60% of US Treasuries will come due in the next 3 years. By the FED vowing to keep rates low by buying them, they could effectively monetize a huge chunk of the US debt.

Lets hear it for Gold!

 

[KissMy]

Gold Hit $1,800!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Toro]

FTR I have not shorted gold.

Yet.

 

[Trajan]

goooodaaaawwwg......am I the man or what?

2K by X mas....

 

[Toro]

Gold hit an RSI today of 87. Only once before in this bull market has it gotten this high, May 9 2006 when it hit $699. It proceeded to rise another 4.5% over two days. From there, it fell 5.7% over the next week, 10.3% over two weeks, and 15.5% over the month.

The RSI was also this high in 1980 when it was melting up. Both occurrences were in January of that year. Both times, gold was hammered within days.

Gold is in full blown panic mode. These typically do not last.

 

[KissMy]

FTR I have not shorted gold.

Yet.

What method are you using to predict market turns?

 

[Toro]

FTR I have not shorted gold.

Yet.

What method are you using to predict market turns?

Ideally, I want to see an intraday reversal closing on the lows and confirmed the next day. It wasn't confirmed today. We may get confirmation in a few days. However, technicals mean crap in a banking / sovereign crisis.

 

[Toro]

The other signal would be a big gap up followed by a big down day closing near the low which is lower than the low of the previous big up day, and then the third day seeing a rally that falls short of the intraday highs of the prior two days. Weakness on the fourth day would be a very interesting day for a short entry.

 

[KissMy]

FTR I have not shorted gold.

Yet.

What method are you using to predict market turns?

Ideally, I want to see an intraday reversal closing on the lows and confirmed the next day. It wasn't confirmed today. We may get confirmation in a few days. However, technicals mean crap in a banking / sovereign crisis.

I agree, this crisis is dwarfing the usual technicals. The only market turns are created by Central Banks.