Aside from the Middle East's beleaguered autocrats, another group is reeling from the roiling unrest: al Qaeda.
Since its creation in 1988, al Qaeda's principal mission has been to topple what it calls the "near enemy": regimes ruling Arab states that don't apply fundamentalist Islamic law. Egypt, a close U.S. ally and uneasy friend of Israel, was a particular priority, especially for the group's No. 2, Egyptian Ayman al Zawahiri, who was imprisoned there for his role in the 1981 assassination of President Anwar Sadat.
But in less than three weeks, a ragtag group of protesters and Egypt's secular military succeeded where al Qaeda failed and toppled the Mubarak regime. ...
The normally prolix Mr. Zawahiri was conspicuously silent as protests swept through capitals from Tripoli to Tehran. The last week, he issued a 34-minute lecture on Egyptian history. It made no reference to the Tunisian or Egyptian uprisings or the fall of President Hosni Mubarak. Instead, he referred to Mr. Mubarak's son, who has been sidelined during Egypt's transition, as the "anticipated leader," and spent more time talking about Napoleon than the Middle East's turmoil.
Terrorism analysts believe al Qaeda's senior leadership is reeling. In some ways, the largely nonviolent, secular and pro-democracy revolts amount to a rejection of the group's core beliefs. They were also successful.
"It's not just a defeat. It's a catastrophe, the worst thing that has happened since al Qaeda was created," said Jean-Pierre Filiu, an expert on al Qaeda and affiliated groups at the University of Sciences Po in Paris. ...
But even the rise of Islamist political parties in countries such as Egypt wouldn't be a win for al Qaeda—the terrorist group is bitter enemies with the Muslim Brotherhood. And in countries such as Yemen, where al Qaeda today has a much stronger operational foothold, terrorism analysts highlight the secular nature of recent protests and conclude that al Qaeda's message doesn't have much grassroots appeal. ...
Three days before Mr. Mubarak left office, al Qaeda in Iraq, an affiliate group, released a statement that highlighted the gulf between the protesters in Tahrir Square and the jihadis on the sidelines: "Beware of the tricks of un-Islamic ideologies, such as filthy and evil secularism, infidelic democracy, and putrid idolic patriotism and nationalism," it said.
Mr. Zawahiri struck a similar tone, warning of perils of democracy, or "the desire of the majority without abiding by any value or moral or ideology." ...