bigrebnc1775
][][][% NC Sheepdog
See Post #11.
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WW what's your gut tell you ?
OK that's not fair. Now you are asking for my opinion and not a discussion of the law.
This is my opinion. It may not be based on "facts", it's not based on polls and I don't plan on trying to "prove" anything.
With those boundaries, here is what my gut tells me.
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Elections are decided by the middle 20% of the voting demographic. 40% are going to vote Democratic no matter who they put on the ballot. 40% of Republicans are going to vote Republican no matter who they put on the ballot. Elections are actually decided by the 10% left of center and 10% right of center who vote.
The DNC groomed Obama to run for President long before the 2008 election cycle. You can go back to 2004 and the Democratic Convention where he delivered the keynote speech. Nationally the man was unknown and he hadn't been elected to any federal office. The Dem's new it was going to be tough to unseat a sitting President and at that time Bush II was doing well after 9/11 and with a good economy.
Fast forward to 2008 and you have a different situation. The economy was beginning to go downhill, Bush II couldn't run again because of term limits and the field was wide open. With the downturn in the economy, Bush bailouts, the protracted war people were not that happy with Republicans in general. On the Dem side it was pretty clear it was going to be Clinton or Obama emerging from the primaries. The DNC machine got Obama elected to the Senate which gave him some credibility on the national level and you had Clinton that carpetbagged a Senate seat out of New York. Either was going to be a win/win from the Dem side. Either they were going to be nominating the first Woman candidate with a chance at the White House or the first black candidate. Either way they were drooling of the prospect of capturing a significant portion of either the female or black demographic. The Republican field was split and never really coalesced behind one strong candidate. McCain won the split field kind of by default. None of the social conservatives were that attractive to ignite the right of center needed to win the general election. So we had a choice, McCain who had a least a shot by being able to play to the middle after the primaries or a way far right social conservative that might win the primary but wouldn't have a snow balls chance in hell of winning the general election because of the demographic factor and after having Bush II in office for 8-years.
So with that said we are now in the general election period in 2008. Obama continually tracks high in the polls. He was ever in any real danger. Polling showed that the birth certificate issue was not playing a big factor in how people were deciding on who they were going to vote for so he saw no real advantage to justifying a response to the issue.
My gut felling is that he has both a COLB from Hawaii and a Long Form Birth Certificate which could be brought out at any time. My gut feeling is that he was "holding them in reserve". If the issue ever really took off and gained national attention, he could have resolved it in a day. So why didn't he? Political advantage. If the right focused on the birth certificate issue they would appear to be attacking him personally instead of his policies. That type of politics doesn't sit well with a lot of people. So his plan was to let it simmer, simmer, simmer - if it ever came to a boil - produce the documents. At that point he could then play the victim card and garner a lot of sympathy from moderates who he would need to win the election. Moderates (even right of center moderates) would see the birther issue as dirty politics being played by Republicans and McCain would be painted with that brush even if he wasn't behind it. Especially since he would have produced the needed documents by this time. Obama was in a great place, ignore the issue and keep it in the fringe wacko conspiracy realm or address the issue (once it was important enough) and gain sympathy votes. Win/Win.
Same situation basically applies now going into the 2012 cycle. If he releases it when he doesn't need to, he wastes political capitol that he can use against his opponent. However if he keeps it close to the vest, he can release it at an opportune time - associating his opponent in the media as a tool of wacko right wing elements and conspiracy theorist out to get him personally because they can't defeat him on the issues.
My gut says he was probably born in Hawaii. The degree of collaboration to include a Republican Governor of Hawaii and the Hawaiian Department of Health for it not to be "leaked" that a birth certificate isn't present is simply to much to believe. Just look at these threads. People make stupid claims about what is on his birth certificate (Religion, Race, etc.) when that information isn't even on birth certificates. Some spend pages arguing about google maps and whether there is one house or two at an address that has nothing to do with Obama. People choose to ignore the clear law at the time and claim he lost his citizenship when his mother took him to Indonesia. That he MUST have traveled on an Indonesian passport to Pakistan because it was closed to US Citizens, again a truly false idea.
My gut says that he has the documents he needs and will use them at a time most beneficial to him where he can paint all Republicans in the worst light and give him the best shot at reelection.
If we are going to beat Obama we have to do it on the issues if we are going to win the hearts and minds of the people. We have to nail him on bailouts, we have to nail him on TARP I and TARP II, we have to nail him on ObamaCare, we have to nail him on massive government spending and expansion. If we are going to win we have to focus on Jobs, controlling Spending, and smaller government.
I'm in these threads shooting down the birthers (no offense intended) because they will latch onto some really silly shit sometimes. They refuse to acknowledge common sense, they refuse to acknowledge the laws at the time, they refuse to acknowledge anything except for their obsession with Obama shouldn't have won in 2008. Birthers will latch on to anything they think will advance an anti-Obama agenda including duping members of the military into disobeying lawful orders. They advise a sympathetic Army Lieutenant Colonel to make a stupid video, disobey military orders, and sacrifice his career while they collect money on web-sites from the true believers and an honorable man who they duped is now sitting in the Ft. Leavenworth stockade. They will advance some pie-in-the-sky idea that the entire operation of the government since January 20th, 2009 is somehow null and void without considering the catastrophe that would entail. No government expenditures would be authorized by law. The people would "owe" the government back any money received. Government contracts would be defaulted. The Government would have defaulted on out debt. Military members overseas would have acted without the color of law and would then be eligible for trial as murders and for war crimes. Anyone convicted in a federal court could petition for a mistrial and for wrongful prosecution because of not having a government. The list goes on. Some are simply delusional on the issue.
Well it's time to move beyond 2008 and focus on defeating him in 2012 and it's time to keep something silly like this from ever becoming an issue again by working towards well crafted laws (which the Arizona bill was not) that will require ALL candidates for elective office to submit documented evidence they meet the qualifications for the office they seek and establish that the Secretary of State can verify with another State the authenticity of such documents issued under the Seal of another State.
That's what my gut tells me.
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I'm in these threads shooting down the birthers (no offense intended) because they will latch onto some really silly shit sometimes. They refuse to acknowledge common sense, they refuse to acknowledge the laws at the time, they refuse to acknowledge anything except for their obsession with Obama shouldn't have won in 2008. Birthers will latch on to anything they think will advance an anti-Obama agenda including duping members of the military into disobeying lawful orders.
OK Mr. common sense why does obama produce a document that shows it was not accepted by the 1961 state registrar?