The election is tightening

[JakeStarkey]

Compare the two postings below. She is holding steady in most of the battle ground states, particularly NH PA MI WI MN and is going up in the presidential race polls. Notice the favorability rating is down to an all time low for Clinton. CNBC news reports its respondents are down to 51% in thinking she will win.

What a great race!

• TOP NEWS & ANALYSIS
  
  Clinton much less a sure bet than last month: Fed survey respondents
  The September CNBC Fed Survey of 41 respondents finds that just 51 percent think Clinton will win, down from 84 percent. CNBC US Home

RCP Poll Average 45.3 44.0 Clinton +1.3

4-Way RCP Average 41.4 40.3 Clinton +1.1

Favorability Ratings -13.0 -18.8 Clinton +5.8
Betting Odds 68.0 32.0
Electoral College Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Electoral Map 200 164 Clinton +36
No Toss Up States 293 245
Battlegrounds

Clinton Trump Spread
Florida 44.8 45.7 Trump +0.9

New Hampshire 43.0 38.0 Clinton +5.0
Ohio 43.8 45.0 Trump +1.2
Iowa 38.7 43.0 Trump +4.3
Colorado 42.7 39.0 Clinton +3.7
Nevada 43.5 42.8 Clinton +0.7
North Carolina 43.8 43.2 Clinton +0.6
Virginia 44.3 40.8 Clinton +3.5
Georgia 41.5 45.5 Trump +4.0

Pennsylvania 46.8 40.2 Clinton +6.6
Michigan 44.5 39.3 Clinton +5.2
Wisconsin 45.0 39.7 Clinton +5.3
Missouri 38.3 46.0 Trump +7.7
Arizona 40.0 41.6 Trump +1.6

 

[JakeStarkey]

And NBC/SM poll, polling 13,000 Likely voters, shows Clinton ahead by 5

 

[Pete7469]

Click on a Jerkoff Fakey thread....

Wait for impact....

 

[JakeStarkey]

IOW, petie the bedwetter, is unhappy with the news.

He should be.

 

[JakeStarkey]

The far right and Alt Right won't come on this thread because the news is factual.

 

[Bruce_T_Laney]

Compare the two postings below. She is holding steady in most of the battle ground states, particularly NH PA MI WI MN and is going up in the presidential race polls. Notice the favorability rating is down to an all time low for Clinton. CNBC news reports its respondents are down to 51% in thinking she will win.

What a great race!

• TOP NEWS & ANALYSIS
  
  Clinton much less a sure bet than last month: Fed survey respondents
  The September CNBC Fed Survey of 41 respondents finds that just 51 percent think Clinton will win, down from 84 percent. CNBC US Home

RCP Poll Average 45.3 44.0 Clinton +1.3

4-Way RCP Average 41.4 40.3 Clinton +1.1

Favorability Ratings -13.0 -18.8 Clinton +5.8
Betting Odds 68.0 32.0
Electoral College Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Electoral Map 200 164 Clinton +36
No Toss Up States 293 245
Battlegrounds

Clinton Trump Spread
Florida 44.8 45.7 Trump +0.9

New Hampshire 43.0 38.0 Clinton +5.0
Ohio 43.8 45.0 Trump +1.2
Iowa 38.7 43.0 Trump +4.3
Colorado 42.7 39.0 Clinton +3.7
Nevada 43.5 42.8 Clinton +0.7
North Carolina 43.8 43.2 Clinton +0.6
Virginia 44.3 40.8 Clinton +3.5
Georgia 41.5 45.5 Trump +4.0

Pennsylvania 46.8 40.2 Clinton +6.6
Michigan 44.5 39.3 Clinton +5.2
Wisconsin 45.0 39.7 Clinton +5.3
Missouri 38.3 46.0 Trump +7.7
Arizona 40.0 41.6 Trump +1.6

I'll give Jake a little credit and at least he add the state to state polls...

I believe when it is all done Trump loses big in the Electoral College but will be close in the popular vote...

 

[bendog]

The debates will tell the tale.

Obama beat Mitt by what.... a little over 3%.

Morning Joe said if Hillary wins by 1% the gop is overjoyed and holds the Senate. If Hillary wins by 10%, it's bad times for Mitch "the Turtle" McConnell and Paul "the eunuch" Ryan. That's not gonna happen now that the kids went for Johnson.

 

[JakeStarkey]

The debates will tell the tale.

Obama beat Mitt by what.... a little over 3%.

Morning Joe said if Hillary wins by 1% the gop is overjoyed and holds the Senate. If Hillary wins by 10%, it's bad times for Mitch "the Turtle" McConnell and Paul "the eunuch" Ryan. That's not gonna happen now that the kids went for Johnson.

I think those who vote for Johnson will vote Dem for senate. If so, the night will be bad for the GOP. If not, there is a chance the GOP holds the Senate.

 

[bendog]

Again, the debates will tell the tale. Last time, Obama came out flat, but got his act together. But this time is different because Trump is different. He says things that are absolutely untrue, and he may not know it, or he may have absolutely no regard for truth. So, it there's basically contemporaneous fact checking by some site like MSNBC or Cnn, it may be hard for other outlets to ignore it.

The other fascinating thing he does is say just outlandish shit, but he does so with a straight face that may lead people to think he's actually serious. Like saying systemic rape in the military was a natural or to be expected outcome of women in the military. What it was was an abject failure by the professional officer corp to maintain law and order in the ranks. Trump seemed to suggest that despite the foreseeability of that, maybe we should let criminal courts rather than the military handle it. Well, that's the very liberal position. Conservatives want heads to roll amongst the officers until the message is clear: zero tolerance.

But Trump came off as a serious guy, when he spouted misogynist and then suggested putting the military under the jurisdiction of US criminal courts.

 

[Fueri]

Compare the two postings below. She is holding steady in most of the battle ground states, particularly NH PA MI WI MN and is going up in the presidential race polls. Notice the favorability rating is down to an all time low for Clinton. CNBC news reports its respondents are down to 51% in thinking she will win.

What a great race!

• TOP NEWS & ANALYSIS
  
  Clinton much less a sure bet than last month: Fed survey respondents
  The September CNBC Fed Survey of 41 respondents finds that just 51 percent think Clinton will win, down from 84 percent. CNBC US Home

RCP Poll Average 45.3 44.0 Clinton +1.3

4-Way RCP Average 41.4 40.3 Clinton +1.1

Favorability Ratings -13.0 -18.8 Clinton +5.8
Betting Odds 68.0 32.0
Electoral College Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Electoral Map 200 164 Clinton +36
No Toss Up States 293 245
Battlegrounds

Clinton Trump Spread
Florida 44.8 45.7 Trump +0.9

New Hampshire 43.0 38.0 Clinton +5.0
Ohio 43.8 45.0 Trump +1.2
Iowa 38.7 43.0 Trump +4.3
Colorado 42.7 39.0 Clinton +3.7
Nevada 43.5 42.8 Clinton +0.7
North Carolina 43.8 43.2 Clinton +0.6
Virginia 44.3 40.8 Clinton +3.5
Georgia 41.5 45.5 Trump +4.0

Pennsylvania 46.8 40.2 Clinton +6.6
Michigan 44.5 39.3 Clinton +5.2
Wisconsin 45.0 39.7 Clinton +5.3
Missouri 38.3 46.0 Trump +7.7
Arizona 40.0 41.6 Trump +1.6

She is holding steady in most of the battle ground states, particularly NH PA MI WI MN and is going up in the presidential race polls.


Maybe according to RCP, but not according to fivethirtyeight. Today is his high water mark since his low in August, with a 43.7% chance of winning.

Over the course of this month she's losing ground in PA

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/

and MI

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/michigan/

and WI

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/wisconsin/


I could list the others, but the bottom line is that these battleground races have been tightening in the last month. Yes, she still leads in some of them, but those margins are narrowing. As predicted by Silver the battlegrounds move together typically and right now they're moving against her.

The debates could well decide this....

 

[JakeStarkey]

She is going up in PA and WI (?). She is holding steady in the other states. NBC says she's gone up 5%.

It's tight, but she is holding water, but Trump is not weakening at all.