The Dow will test 27,000 by April 16th

[william the wie]

Two simple arguments

Because the ten year treasury yield went down to 2.87% today at auction, all investment discounting techniques will also see the numerator stay more or less the same while the denominator shrinks. That in turn raises the value of equities

With total after tax wages going up for the nation as a whole more money will be fed into retirement accounts but some of that will be last minute additions more money in the market also means higher stock and bond prices..

 

[ABikerSailor]

I think it will see 20,000 before it sees 27,000.

The Dow dropped 157.13 points today to close at 25,178.61. I've got a hunch investors are going to start selling when other countries start their own tariffs on American goods.

Harley Davidson is already saying that Trump's tariff plan is going to cost them around 30 million, and they are already saying they are going to layoff some jobs.

 

[william the wie]

You are assuming rationality on the part of speculators and investors. All that matters is how much money comes into the market and how much leaves. With low margin rates and tax refunds a lot of money is going into the market.

 

[saveliberty]

I think that is too short a time frame for 27000. We have monthly inflation reported Tuesday and a likely interest rate hike next week. I am more interested in what range we see trading.

 

[MarathonMike]

I like the way you're thinking. The Tariff situation needs to be worked through with the EU and China. Honestly that concerns me more interest rates. I'm still standing pat with core holdings and trading.

 

[frigidweirdo]

Two simple arguments

Because the ten year treasury yield went down to 2.87% today at auction, all investment discounting techniques will also see the numerator stay more or less the same while the denominator shrinks. That in turn raises the value of equities

With total after tax wages going up for the nation as a whole more money will be fed into retirement accounts but some of that will be last minute additions more money in the market also means higher stock and bond prices..

And the higher it goes, the harder it will fall.

 

[william the wie]

Still on track with the inflation report.

 

[Rambunctious]

Buy buy buy.....

 

[william the wie]

Selling puts on stocks with good fundamentals is more of the heads I win, tails you lose kind of situation I like. But to each his own.

 

[saveliberty]

Tariff Wars are the broad market driver for the moment. Looks like we retest the lows, then we shall see.

 

[ABikerSailor]

I wonder if the OP still thinks that the DOW is going to hit 27,000 by April 16, even after the 700 point drop that it took today?

I have a really good hunch that China is going to start in with their threats. They have already said that they are going to sanction goods from states that supported Trump in the election.

Still think Trump is "winning" and a "great negotiator"?

 

[william the wie]

Everyone who thinks a 3% drop is a big deal with the EU not only investigating FaceBook but also threatening fines for violations of EU privacy laws. Then there is the US criminal investigation and a probable avalanche of civil suits plus starting in May there is the 3% EU internet sales tax given the market cap of FB today was a love tap.

 

[william the wie]

Just a bump to make this thread easier to find come April 15

 

[ABikerSailor]

Just a bump to make this thread easier to find come April 15

Good idea. I don't think there is any way in hell that the DOW is going to hit the mark the OP said it will.

 

[william the wie]

Reread the OP.
there is no mention of closing price.
the only close that matters is April 16th.
testing a mark has a different meaning than reaching the mark as in close counts.

Did you fail to read or fail to understand?

Check with Toro, Zander or other investors if you doubt me.

 

[ABikerSailor]

Reread the OP.
there is no mention of closing price.
the only close that matters is April 16th.
testing a mark has a different meaning than reaching the mark as in close counts.

Did you fail to read or fail to understand?

Check with Toro, Zander or other investors if you doubt me.

"Testing" means that it hit it once during that day of trading, even if it didn't close there, or that it closes within 100 points of your mark.

No, I don't think that the DOW is going to hit 26,900 by the 16th either.

 

[william the wie]

Good we are on the same page.

 

[BuckToothMoron]

Two simple arguments

Because the ten year treasury yield went down to 2.87% today at auction, all investment discounting techniques will also see the numerator stay more or less the same while the denominator shrinks. That in turn raises the value of equities

With total after tax wages going up for the nation as a whole more money will be fed into retirement accounts but some of that will be last minute additions more money in the market also means higher stock and bond prices..

Hold on- didn’t you post the 10 year would be like 6 or 7 by the end of the year? For what it’s worth, I think the Dow will see 17,000 before it sees 27,000.

 

[ABikerSailor]

Two simple arguments

Because the ten year treasury yield went down to 2.87% today at auction, all investment discounting techniques will also see the numerator stay more or less the same while the denominator shrinks. That in turn raises the value of equities

With total after tax wages going up for the nation as a whole more money will be fed into retirement accounts but some of that will be last minute additions more money in the market also means higher stock and bond prices..

Hold on- didn’t you post the 10 year would be like 6 or 7 by the end of the year? For what it’s worth, I think the Dow will see 17,000 before it sees 27,000.

I don't think it's going to dip quite that low, but I do think that it will see 20,000 before it starts flirting with 27,000.

Yeah, it rose considerably today, but that is going to change when China starts with their sanctions.

 

[BuckToothMoron]

Two simple arguments

Because the ten year treasury yield went down to 2.87% today at auction, all investment discounting techniques will also see the numerator stay more or less the same while the denominator shrinks. That in turn raises the value of equities

With total after tax wages going up for the nation as a whole more money will be fed into retirement accounts but some of that will be last minute additions more money in the market also means higher stock and bond prices..

Hold on- didn’t you post the 10 year would be like 6 or 7 by the end of the year? For what it’s worth, I think the Dow will see 17,000 before it sees 27,000.

I don't think it's going to dip quite that low, but I do think that it will see 20,000 before it starts flirting with 27,000.

Yeah, it rose considerably today, but that is going to change when China starts with their sanctions.

What will cause it, I haven’t a clue. I just know that we have had anemic growth for since 2008 yet the market has surged due to QE and low interest rate policies from the Fed. All that will have to be undone by the market before valuations can be normalized.