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Bush at this time in office was around 20% compared to 50% for Obama. Obama isn't doing too bad!
The reason the democrats have 246 electoral votes right out of the gate is because most people want their government to govern. They don't want cut, slash and burn! They want infrastructure, science institutions, police, education, minimum wage, ssi, and on down the list. They believe republicans are fucking crazy.
why don't you just come out and say you all want Socialism and to enslave our children, grandchildren to what will be their MASTERS in the loving and giving party of the Democrats who can not only give it but also threaten to take it away if you don't bow to them or get out of line. It seems there is never ENOUGH that most of you Want want want or care it comes off the BACK of others in the country
Every democrat knows it's going to be a close election – whomever their candidate.Hillary will probably win, but it's going to be a lot closer than most Democrats think.
"Every" Democrat?
I don't think so.
Democrats are very arrogant about 2016. Just read this board.
Stat thinks Hillary is going to win 400+ electoral votes.
That's not going to happen.
Republicans need to win Florida, Virgina, Ohio and either take Co or Iowa.
Bush won because he won Nev, Co and ohio...Nev is gone! And Ohio is worth 3 electoral less then it was in 2004.
Lose Ohio = lose the election. No matter if they win Florida, Virgina, co and Iowa.
Hillary will probably win, but it's going to be a lot closer than most Democrats think.
Colorado is so drugged up they don't know who they are voting for. If Trump is the republican candidate, he will take New York, which will make up for a few states.
Guy, where did I play to white fear? You lie like all liberals lie. Johnson, you are going to quote Johnson? Really he was the worse of the flaming democrat two faced lying racists.
Hillary will probably win, but it's going to be a lot closer than most Democrats think.
Unless she runs against Trump I don't think there is anything probable about her winning
We've been shoveling Hispanics in by the tens of thousands, how many will vote, that's a different story. Not all illegals vote in our elections. Blacks as an electoral force are diminishing year by year. They are killing themselves and aborting themselves into a non entity. There are fewer black people alive today then there was in 1920.
I'm seeing threads about polls on the direction of the country and Obama's numbers, but elections remain all about electoral votes. This piece is written by a conservative writer and blogger named Myra Adams:
Can a Republican Win 270 Electoral Votes in 2016...or Ever?
From the piece, the key point:
3. The GOP’s biggest problem is that Democrats start with 246 electoral votes
As Republicans gear up to “take back the White House” conservatives need to be aware of one startling fact: in 2012 if Romney had won the three swing states of Ohio, Florida, and Virginia, he still would have lost the election.
If you want to explore this new reality, check out www.270towin.com. There you can play around with the interactive map and plot out your favorite candidate’s path to 270.
For instance, let’s look at Wisconsin, with its 10 electoral votes. Every four years the Republican mindset says Wisconsin will be a swing state. Then, a few months into the campaign the state loses it’s coveted “battleground” status as polls begin to show its “blue” reality. The truth is that not since 1984, when Reagan won in a landslide against Walter Mondale, has Wisconsin seen red.
Or take Pennsylvania, with 20 electoral votes, and New York, with 29—both have been blue since Bill Clinton won them in 1992, and blue they will remain. Then there’s the mega-rich electoral state of California with its 55 votes that turned red for the last time in 1988 when George H.W. Bush won that “California guy” Reagan’s “third term.”
After totaling the electoral votes in all the terminally blue states, an inconvenient math emerges, providing even a below average Democrat presidential candidate a potential starting advantage of 246. Here are the states and their votes: CA (55), NY (29), PA (20), IL (20), MI (16), NJ (14), WA (12), MA (11), MN (10), WI (10), MD (10), CT (7), OR (7), HI (4), ME (4), NH (4), RT (4), VT (3), DE (3), DC (3).
Let me repeat, if only for the shock value: 246 votes out of 270 is 91 percent. That means the Democrat candidate needs to win only 24 more votes out of the remaining 292. (There are a total of 538 electoral votes.)
Thoughts?
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Conservatives can deny this trend, but they will soon have to give in, but on what? First get off the gay issue. You lost. Move on. Take a prolife stance fine, but saying rape and invest victims can't have an abortion hurts you in the polls.. Taking a stand again student loan funding or tuition free school might help you with a segment of the rich donor base, but it turns new college grads into Democrats and alienates the middle class. People don't love Obamacare, but they hated what was in place before it. They also don't buy the bullshit health savings account s and buying across state lines. Come up with real answers or you will continue to lose the middle class.
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Healthcare and college is where they are losing. People don't like Obamacare, but I do think people hated the old system, which let's face it wasn't much different just as much.Conservatives can deny this trend, but they will soon have to give in, but on what? First get off the gay issue. You lost. Move on. Take a prolife stance fine, but saying rape and invest victims can't have an abortion hurts you in the polls.. Taking a stand again student loan funding or tuition free school might help you with a segment of the rich donor base, but it turns new college grads into Democrats and alienates the middle class. People don't love Obamacare, but they hated what was in place before it. They also don't buy the bullshit health savings account s and buying across state lines. Come up with real answers or you will continue to lose the middle class.
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Some Republicans have touched on this but quickly move back into the fold
Gay marriage and gay rights is settled. Republicans need to state they disagree but accept it and move on
Immigration reform will bury the party for a generation. Unless Republicans accept the obvious, they will become a regional party
Standing up for the environment is not a losing proposition with Americans. Unless you are in the pocket of big oil
The Teapublican Congress will never compromiseI believe the Repub congress is dragging the party down as well. Repubs in congress could move the needle some if they would actually try. They need to do some deals and trade for what they want.
Trade the pipeline for MW increase or close tax loopholes for some entitlement reform. Anything that looks like progress would help.
again, what do you base that on?
She leads every last one of your guys in polls.
You assume everyone has an equal chance and start out evenBut I agree with Tex. The Democrats are trying to convince everyone this is in the bag. That is ridiculous. If either of the top 2 candidates on the democratic side win the nomination, and anyone on the republican side in the top 7 besides Trump or Bush wins, most believe this is almost a slam dunk for the republicans.
Yeah, yeah, I know, here come the polls. "Look at this poll!" "Look at that poll!" Problem with polls is........they take a snapshot in time. If the election was tomorrow, I too would say that the democrat was going to win. But it isn't!
Why are conservatives more confident than anytime in the last 4 elections? Because it isn't only the republicans pissed, it is a lot of Democrats too. The top tier of the republican candidates aren't really seen as party specific, they are honestly Washington outsiders. Meanwhile, the Democrats are running Hillary, a socialist, and waiting in the wings is Biden, and Gore if Hillary falters. They are ALL Washington insiders.
Personally, I do not think the Democrats believe the angst of the American public, and even some of their own solid voters such as blue collar union workers. Oh, they will trumpet how the UAW, or the United Steel Workers, or this or that endorse them, but as with Reagan, we know just because union bosses endorse, doesn't mean the rank and file are going to vote for them.
We conservatives...............democrats...........and especially the republican establishment, have to admit to each other, and to everyone else, that the Obama team ate our lunch on the ground, in social media, and every other way in 2012. That won't happen this time around. Obama and his team got young people to drive the new ways to reach out to people. The republicans have learned this lesson very well!
Now for what I feel is the final analysis.....................Democrats carry many of these states because A. they are excited about their candidate, B. because they hate the republican so badly, C. a combination of both; meanwhile, the repubs do not because A. they are not excited about their candidate, B. they do not despise the opposition enough, and C. because the independents are not interested.
And so, now you know why if it is anyone from the GOP that is not Trump or Bush, against any of the top 4 candidates for the democrats, the democrats have a less than 50-50 chance of winning; AND the coat tails will keep both other houses republican. Problem is, both house and senate will fight with the new President, because the republican establishment is almost as bad as those on the left! Watch and see. Any of the Democrats I mentioned go up against a Carson, Fiorina, or Cruz, and the only question will be..........................."But I thought the democrats had 246 in the bag?" Lol!
