"The Democrats start with 246 electoral votes"

[ScienceRocks]

Bush at this time in office was around 20% compared to 50% for Obama. Obama isn't doing too bad!

The reason the democrats have 246 electoral votes right out of the gate is because most people want their government to govern. They don't want cut, slash and burn! They want infrastructure, science institutions, police, education, minimum wage, ssi, and on down the list. They believe republicans are fucking crazy.

why don't you just come out and say you all want Socialism and to enslave our children, grandchildren to what will be their MASTERS in the loving and giving party of the Democrats who can not only give it but also threaten to take it away if you don't bow to them or get out of line. It seems there is never ENOUGH that most of you Want want want or care it comes off the BACK of others in the country

I only want the basics like infrastructure, science, education and a safetynet. My vision is kind of like the 50's in taxes but otherwises like today...We spent more on infrastructure, science and education under Reagan then we're doing right now. Why can't you think logically and come to the conclusion that we must invest in our own nation.

I aint talking about taking everything from other people.

 

[ScienceRocks]

Hillary will probably win, but it's going to be a lot closer than most Democrats think.

Every democrat knows it's going to be a close election – whomever their candidate.

"Every" Democrat?

I don't think so.

Democrats are very arrogant about 2016. Just read this board.

Stat thinks Hillary is going to win 400+ electoral votes.

That's not going to happen.

I'll be very suprised if the republicans manage to win Florida, Virgina, Co and Ohio..This is what they need to win. They haven't won All these since 2004. Hispanics, Asians and the fact that the party is so far to the right has made at least a few of these super hard to get.

How hard is this to understand?

 

[Katzndogz]

Colorado is so drugged up they don't know who they are voting for. If Trump is the republican candidate, he will take New York, which will make up for a few states.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Republicans need to win Florida, Virgina, Ohio and either take Co or Iowa.

Bush won because he won Nev, Co and ohio...Nev is gone! And Ohio is worth 3 electoral less then it was in 2004.

Lose Ohio = lose the election. No matter if they win Florida, Virgina, co and Iowa.

Nevada isn't gone unless Trump is the nominee

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Hillary will probably win, but it's going to be a lot closer than most Democrats think.

Unless she runs against Trump I don't think there is anything probable about her winning

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Colorado is so drugged up they don't know who they are voting for. If Trump is the republican candidate, he will take New York, which will make up for a few states.

 

[JoeB131]

Guy, where did I play to white fear? You lie like all liberals lie. Johnson, you are going to quote Johnson? Really he was the worse of the flaming democrat two faced lying racists.

Yawn, guy, so I guess the 90% of blacks who vote against you are doing so because they didn't notice what you've been doing for the last 50 years.

You made your bed, sleep in it. YOur current bunch, not being happy with permanently alienating blacks, are now alienating Hispanics and Asians as well.

 

[JoeB131]

Hillary will probably win, but it's going to be a lot closer than most Democrats think.

Unless she runs against Trump I don't think there is anything probable about her winning

again, what do you base that on? She leads every last one of your guys in polls.

So what you are telling me is that even though no one is really very enthusastic about all your single digit candidates right now, when one of these clowns in the nominee people are going to suddenly like them?

Here's why Hillary will probably win if she's the nominee.

1) Women- FIrst time we will get a chance to elect a woman.

2) Minorities- The GOP has done nothing to repair the damage they've done with them.

3) Electoral College Advantage - The democrat has 242 electoral votes in states they've won in six of the last six elections. They have an additional 15 in states they've won 5 out of 6 times. There's nothing to indicate you guys can breecch this blue wall.

 

[JoeB131]

We've been shoveling Hispanics in by the tens of thousands, how many will vote, that's a different story. Not all illegals vote in our elections. Blacks as an electoral force are diminishing year by year. They are killing themselves and aborting themselves into a non entity. There are fewer black people alive today then there was in 1920.

Wow, you don't see Stormfront Wank Fantasies very often.

Reality. In the 2012 and 2008 elections, blacks made up 13% of the electorate. in most past elections, they make up 8-11%. Yes, Obama being on the ballot was part of that, but so is the fact they are growing as a percentage of the electorate.

 

[GHook93]

Is a GOP impossible? Nope, but it is going to be very tough. The Hispanic population swings CO left. The younger Cuban population is very leftist like the rest of the Hispanic population, unlike their Republican parents. Cubans were the swing vote that used to offset the Jewish swing vote in FL.FL is becoming more and more blue. If FL becomes a blue state then elections will not matter! Why do you think Democrats are so pro amnesty? Flood the red states with socialist loving Democrats and those red states will turn blue: CA used to be red, same with NV, NM and CO. Heck TX could become a purple state soon.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[GHook93]

Conservatives can deny this trend, but they will soon have to give in, but on what? First get off the gay issue. You lost. Move on. Take a prolife stance fine, but saying rape and invest victims can't have an abortion hurts you in the polls.. Taking a stand again student loan funding or tuition free school might help you with a segment of the rich donor base, but it turns new college grads into Democrats and alienates the middle class. People don't love Obamacare, but they hated what was in place before it. They also don't buy the bullshit health savings account s and buying across state lines. Come up with real answers or you will continue to lose the middle class.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[rightwinger]

I'm seeing threads about polls on the direction of the country and Obama's numbers, but elections remain all about electoral votes. This piece is written by a conservative writer and blogger named Myra Adams:

Can a Republican Win 270 Electoral Votes in 2016...or Ever?

From the piece, the key point:

3. The GOP’s biggest problem is that Democrats start with 246 electoral votes

As Republicans gear up to “take back the White House” conservatives need to be aware of one startling fact: in 2012 if Romney had won the three swing states of Ohio, Florida, and Virginia, he still would have lost the election.


If you want to explore this new reality, check out www.270towin.com. There you can play around with the interactive map and plot out your favorite candidate’s path to 270.

For instance, let’s look at Wisconsin, with its 10 electoral votes. Every four years the Republican mindset says Wisconsin will be a swing state. Then, a few months into the campaign the state loses it’s coveted “battleground” status as polls begin to show its “blue” reality. The truth is that not since 1984, when Reagan won in a landslide against Walter Mondale, has Wisconsin seen red.

Or take Pennsylvania, with 20 electoral votes, and New York, with 29—both have been blue since Bill Clinton won them in 1992, and blue they will remain. Then there’s the mega-rich electoral state of California with its 55 votes that turned red for the last time in 1988 when George H.W. Bush won that “California guy” Reagan’s “third term.”


After totaling the electoral votes in all the terminally blue states, an inconvenient math emerges, providing even a below average Democrat presidential candidate a potential starting advantage of 246. Here are the states and their votes: CA (55), NY (29), PA (20), IL (20), MI (16), NJ (14), WA (12), MA (11), MN (10), WI (10), MD (10), CT (7), OR (7), HI (4), ME (4), NH (4), RT (4), VT (3), DE (3), DC (3).

Let me repeat, if only for the shock value: 246 votes out of 270 is 91 percent. That means the Democrat candidate needs to win only 24 more votes out of the remaining 292. (There are a total of 538 electoral votes.)

Thoughts?
.
.

Republicans need to pitch a "perfect game" in swing states to reach 270. Bush did it but barely reached 270 both times

Since 2004, swing states have become more blue with Florida and Virginia almost out of reach for Republicans

Given the current crop of Republicans, it is doubtful any of them could come near to 270

 

[rightwinger]

Conservatives can deny this trend, but they will soon have to give in, but on what? First get off the gay issue. You lost. Move on. Take a prolife stance fine, but saying rape and invest victims can't have an abortion hurts you in the polls.. Taking a stand again student loan funding or tuition free school might help you with a segment of the rich donor base, but it turns new college grads into Democrats and alienates the middle class. People don't love Obamacare, but they hated what was in place before it. They also don't buy the bullshit health savings account s and buying across state lines. Come up with real answers or you will continue to lose the middle class.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Some Republicans have touched on this but quickly move back into the fold

Gay marriage and gay rights is settled. Republicans need to state they disagree but accept it and move on

Immigration reform will bury the party for a generation. Unless Republicans accept the obvious, they will become a regional party

Standing up for the environment is not a losing proposition with Americans. Unless you are in the pocket of big oil

 

[GHook93]

Conservatives can deny this trend, but they will soon have to give in, but on what? First get off the gay issue. You lost. Move on. Take a prolife stance fine, but saying rape and invest victims can't have an abortion hurts you in the polls.. Taking a stand again student loan funding or tuition free school might help you with a segment of the rich donor base, but it turns new college grads into Democrats and alienates the middle class. People don't love Obamacare, but they hated what was in place before it. They also don't buy the bullshit health savings account s and buying across state lines. Come up with real answers or you will continue to lose the middle class.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Some Republicans have touched on this but quickly move back into the fold

Gay marriage and gay rights is settled. Republicans need to state they disagree but accept it and move on

Immigration reform will bury the party for a generation. Unless Republicans accept the obvious, they will become a regional party

Standing up for the environment is not a losing proposition with Americans. Unless you are in the pocket of big oil

Healthcare and college is where they are losing. People don't like Obamacare, but I do think people hated the old system, which let's face it wasn't much different just as much.

A single payer system is coming, tuition free education is coming, now the Republicans can compromise and get something they want or they of do they best to bastard what is coming down the pipe and lose more and more of a share of the vote.

I am right leaning, but things like tuition free college appeals to me.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Hutch Starskey]

I believe the Repub congress is dragging the party down as well. Repubs in congress could move the needle some if they would actually try. They need to do some deals and trade for what they want.
Trade the pipeline for MW increase or close tax loopholes for some entitlement reform. Anything that looks like progress would help.

 

[RedTeamTex]

Enjoyable thread.

I'm inclined to agree that the Dem's are a little misguided about the wind they think is at their back. Even conceding this 246 is pretty secure for them in the final tally, if they think the wind is blowing their direction anywhere else they're in for a rude surprise. They're not going to be as lucky in opponents as they were in '12.

Obama was truly an electoral phenomenon. I've never seen a "hem of his garment" religious experience for a political figure like '08 in my lifetime. Our gift-giving gaff machine of a candidate in '12 neutralized the fact that Obama's halo had already gone--even Obama couldn't keep his old turnout intact. Lucky man.

The Obama coalition was already eroding 3 years ago. No other Democrat can inherit even the '12 turnout. (Biden might come close if an electric shock collar is installed that clamps his mouth shut when he thinks up a new gaff of his own. Even so, just as '12 wasn't '84, we're not able to equate Obama with Reagan in terms of public mood wishing this man could have a third term.)

The blue team had better pray the '14 midterms didn't indicate a turning point in electorate consciousness. Either way, with major Republican candidates and prospective ticket members from Florida and Wisconsin, that 246 includes some serious sinkholes of resources for defense. The wind sheer beyond that 246 will be eye opening. I'll say Nevada, Colorado, and NM are up for grabs and reachable by the Dems. Let's say they get them all and even say Virginia can't climb out of the blue column. 259! (In reality I like our shot in Virginia & elsewhere quite a bit this time, but for the sake of argument....)

This isn't going to be the year that Indiana forgets who it is and goes blue again. Iowa and North Carolina are also quietly ready to rein in the blue team on cultural issues, too. (Thank you BLM.) After that, let's just say 71% say the country is on the wrong track, and I can't wait to hear how Ohio voters feel about "Mount Denali."

 

[imawhosure]

But I agree with Tex. The Democrats are trying to convince everyone this is in the bag. That is ridiculous. If either of the top 2 candidates on the democratic side win the nomination, and anyone on the republican side in the top 7 besides Trump or Bush wins, most believe this is almost a slam dunk for the republicans.

Yeah, yeah, I know, here come the polls. "Look at this poll!" "Look at that poll!" Problem with polls is........they take a snapshot in time. If the election was tomorrow, I too would say that the democrat was going to win. But it isn't!

Why are conservatives more confident than anytime in the last 4 elections? Because it isn't only the republicans pissed, it is a lot of Democrats too. The top tier of the republican candidates aren't really seen as party specific, they are honestly Washington outsiders. Meanwhile, the Democrats are running Hillary, a socialist, and waiting in the wings is Biden, and Gore if Hillary falters. They are ALL Washington insiders.

Personally, I do not think the Democrats believe the angst of the American public, and even some of their own solid voters such as blue collar union workers. Oh, they will trumpet how the UAW, or the United Steel Workers, or this or that endorse them, but as with Reagan, we know just because union bosses endorse, doesn't mean the rank and file are going to vote for them.

We conservatives...............democrats...........and especially the republican establishment, have to admit to each other, and to everyone else, that the Obama team ate our lunch on the ground, in social media, and every other way in 2012. That won't happen this time around. Obama and his team got young people to drive the new ways to reach out to people. The republicans have learned this lesson very well!

Now for what I feel is the final analysis.....................Democrats carry many of these states because A. they are excited about their candidate, B. because they hate the republican so badly, C. a combination of both; meanwhile, the repubs do not because A. they are not excited about their candidate, B. they do not despise the opposition enough, and C. because the independents are not interested.

And so, now you know why if it is anyone from the GOP that is not Trump or Bush, against any of the top 4 candidates for the democrats, the democrats have a less than 50-50 chance of winning; AND the coat tails will keep both other houses republican. Problem is, both house and senate will fight with the new President, because the republican establishment is almost as bad as those on the left! Watch and see. Any of the Democrats I mentioned go up against a Carson, Fiorina, or Cruz, and the only question will be..........................."But I thought the democrats had 246 in the bag?" Lol!

 

[rightwinger]

I believe the Repub congress is dragging the party down as well. Repubs in congress could move the needle some if they would actually try. They need to do some deals and trade for what they want.
Trade the pipeline for MW increase or close tax loopholes for some entitlement reform. Anything that looks like progress would help.

The Teapublican Congress will never compromise

That is why they can't get anything done

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

again, what do you base that on?

Polling

She leads every last one of your guys in polls.

Please specify who it is you are referring to

 

[rightwinger]

But I agree with Tex. The Democrats are trying to convince everyone this is in the bag. That is ridiculous. If either of the top 2 candidates on the democratic side win the nomination, and anyone on the republican side in the top 7 besides Trump or Bush wins, most believe this is almost a slam dunk for the republicans.

Yeah, yeah, I know, here come the polls. "Look at this poll!" "Look at that poll!" Problem with polls is........they take a snapshot in time. If the election was tomorrow, I too would say that the democrat was going to win. But it isn't!

Why are conservatives more confident than anytime in the last 4 elections? Because it isn't only the republicans pissed, it is a lot of Democrats too. The top tier of the republican candidates aren't really seen as party specific, they are honestly Washington outsiders. Meanwhile, the Democrats are running Hillary, a socialist, and waiting in the wings is Biden, and Gore if Hillary falters. They are ALL Washington insiders.

Personally, I do not think the Democrats believe the angst of the American public, and even some of their own solid voters such as blue collar union workers. Oh, they will trumpet how the UAW, or the United Steel Workers, or this or that endorse them, but as with Reagan, we know just because union bosses endorse, doesn't mean the rank and file are going to vote for them.

We conservatives...............democrats...........and especially the republican establishment, have to admit to each other, and to everyone else, that the Obama team ate our lunch on the ground, in social media, and every other way in 2012. That won't happen this time around. Obama and his team got young people to drive the new ways to reach out to people. The republicans have learned this lesson very well!

Now for what I feel is the final analysis.....................Democrats carry many of these states because A. they are excited about their candidate, B. because they hate the republican so badly, C. a combination of both; meanwhile, the repubs do not because A. they are not excited about their candidate, B. they do not despise the opposition enough, and C. because the independents are not interested.

And so, now you know why if it is anyone from the GOP that is not Trump or Bush, against any of the top 4 candidates for the democrats, the democrats have a less than 50-50 chance of winning; AND the coat tails will keep both other houses republican. Problem is, both house and senate will fight with the new President, because the republican establishment is almost as bad as those on the left! Watch and see. Any of the Democrats I mentioned go up against a Carson, Fiorina, or Cruz, and the only question will be..........................."But I thought the democrats had 246 in the bag?" Lol!

You assume everyone has an equal chance and start out even

They don't.

Demographics are demographics. A Republican is not going to take California or New York. A Democrat will not take Texas. Those demographics give the Dems 246 out of a needed 270 Evs

There are a limited number of states up for grabs and Republicans have done nothing to increase their standings in those states