The Bradley Effect

[The Paperboy]

From Wikipedia:

The term Bradley effect, less commonly called the Wilder effect, refers to a frequently observed discrepancy between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in American political campaigns when a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other. Named for Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California governor's race despite being ahead in voter polls, the Bradley effect refers to a tendency on the part of voters -- black as well as white -- to tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for a Black candidate, when, on election day, they vote for his/her white opponent.

One theory for the Bradley effect is that some white voters give inaccurate polling responses for fear that, by stating their true preference, they will open themselves to criticism.

Link here

 

[Andrew2382]

I was going to bring it up, but I am new to the boards, an dI am sure this has been beaten to death already by the left and right.

I think myself it will still play an effect in the race.

Even though I want Obama to lose more then anything, it woul dbe a shame if he lost soley based on this

 

[The Paperboy]

I was going to bring it up, but I am new to the boards, an dI am sure this has been beaten to death already by the left and right.

I think myself it will still play an effect in the race.

Even though I want Obama to lose more then anything, it woul dbe a shame if he lost soley based on this

The "Bradley Effect" is not about "racism". It's about polling being wrong due to "political correctness".

 

[Andrew2382]

lol political correctness due to racism dopey.

It means the white guy who says he will vote for the black canidate to the pollster, however when he is in the private voting booth goes for the white guy because he won't vote for a black canidate

 

[Gem]

Andrew2382 Wrote:

It means the white guy who says he will vote for the black canidate to the pollster, however when he is in the private voting booth goes for the white guy because he won't vote for a black canidate

Or...he tells the pollster that he is voting for the black candidate because he doesn't want people to think he's racist...when really he just doesn't agree with the black candidate's platform, but since no one in the media seem to think that such a thing is possible, the voter chooses to lie rather than appear "racist."

 

[busara]

Andrew2382 Wrote:


Or...he tells the pollster that he is voting for the black candidate because he doesn't want people to think he's racist...when really he just doesn't agree with the black candidate's platform, but since no one in the media seem to think that such a thing is possible, the voter chooses to lie rather than appear "racist."

yeah, because pollsters calling you to ask who youre voting for will yell "racist" if you say mccain, and then tell everyone who they called and that theyre racist

 

[jillian]

Andrew2382 Wrote:


Or...he tells the pollster that he is voting for the black candidate because he doesn't want people to think he's racist...when really he just doesn't agree with the black candidate's platform, but since no one in the media seem to think that such a thing is possible, the voter chooses to lie rather than appear "racist."

Because voters really care what the person on the other end of the phone thinks?

I don't think Obama's going to get Bradley'd... I think that's KD's wishful thinking given the irrelevancies he's spammed the board with.

But then again, I'd hate to think that would be a reason for anyone to win or lose.

 

[Andrew2382]

yeah, because pollsters calling you to ask who youre voting for will yell "racist" if you say mccain, and then tell everyone who they called and that theyre racist

That has nothing to do with it.

Some people might feel uncomfortable saying they won't vote for a black canidate. This effect has happened in pretty much every black election that has taken place. To Bradley, to Dinkins

 

[The Paperboy]

lol political correctness due to racism dopey.

It means the white guy who says he will vote for the black canidate to the pollster, however when he is in the private voting booth goes for the white guy because he won't vote for a black canidate

I'm not saying there isn't racism but again I think the "Bradley Effect" has more to do with people not wanting to offend someone than racism. I think the real racist wouldn't care whether he offended or not.

I think most American's think Obama is a unique individual who deserves our admiration. However I think we are still basically a right of center country and when push comes to shove, in the privacy of the voting booth, many will vote for McCain who may have had a great "vibe" about Obama, but will vote based on positions for McCain.

I line up with McCain on most positions yet I considered voting for Obama as I thought he may have had something special that could rise above politics and do great things. Unfortunately as the campaign wore on I saw him as just another politician who is an exceptional communicator.

If he wins it will because he is an exceptional communicator. Not because of his positions which have been all over the map.

As we speak it seems Obama will win but a look at the past 4 weeks tells us the final 5 weeks will be a wild ride and events that neither campaign can control may very well decide the election.

 

[Gem]

I think you're underestimating how desperately some white people feel about proving they aren't racist.

I could give you numerous stories of people I work with, myself included, being worried about things they have said or done in the presence of black students because they are afraid of being viewed as racist when they are not.

Political correctness has had the added and, to some, unexpected problem, of making un-racist people terrified to "say the wrong thing" or "act the wrong way" in front of black people for fear of being called a racist.

Being called a racist is one of the absolute worst things you can call a non-racist person...it is hurtful, potentially damaging to your career, and it can be very difficult to prove wrong since it is often a "your word vs. mine" situation.

I am surprised that you would sit here and say that many white people "don't care" about what other people think of them and who they are voting for...I think you are fooling yourselves.

 

[SwingVoter]

Bradley Effect wasn't evident at all in the primaries vs. Hillary, or in Deval Patrick's win over Kerry Healey in '06 for Governor of Massachusetts, where the black candidate won the actual election by 20 points.

 

[The Paperboy]

I have not put up a McCain sign in my yard because I don't want to offend anyone. And I'm not the kind of person who really cares if I offend people! However if McCain were running against Hillary I would have a McCain sign up. It will be very interesting to see how this plays out on election day.

 

[The Paperboy]

Bradley Effect wasn't evident at all in the primaries vs. Hillary, or in Deval Patrick's win over Kerry Healey in '06 for Governor of Massachusetts, where the black candidate won the actual election by 20 points.

Go to Real Clear Politics and look at some of the final poll results versus actual results. New Hampshire and California were way off. Obama was predicted as the winner and Hillary won by large margins.