IndependntLogic
Senior Member
- Jul 14, 2011
- 2,997
- 399
- 48
So I'm not one inlcined to conspiracy theories and such but something seems amiss with the capture of this guy who was hiring a hitman to blow up the Saudi Ambassador.
When was the last time you heard anything about Qods? Unless you read a lot of international press, chances are never. Make no mistake about it. They're very good. They're like the Persian version of Navy Seals and CIA combined, similar to the old Soviet Vympel.
So
1. If you're a director level member of an intel agency and you want to hurt America and / or Saudi Arabia, there are better ways. You're dialed in throughout the Middle East. You've got your Hezbollah buddies, Al Qaeda and a dozen other groups in Iraq, Afghanistan and Yemen just waiting to help you. You got Saudis and American presence all over the place. You don't run the risk of damaging your country or more sanctions because it would be SO easy to blame any of a dozen terrorist organizations over there. You're too smart for this.
2. If you're in the intel business, the last thing you would do is get an Iranian involved! This would be like the CIA hiring an American living in Pakistan to coordinate a hit on OBL. There is no way anyone in an intel agency would create such an obvious trail.
3. Now we go from the ridiculous to the sublime. A loud-mouthed used care salesman? Seriously? An amateur? It just keep getting less viable.
4. So let's say ALL that is possible. For some reason, the Intel director decides the smart thing to do is attack where every intel agency is watching anyone named Abdul. He decides to hire someone who would create a trail directly back to his own country. He goes with a stupid amateur. What does he do next? Tells him to hire a cartel hitman from Mexico. What? There are no hitmen in New York? I mean, if you have gone to ZERO trouble to cover your tracks so far, why import talent now? Why not hire a local who you can just hand a briefcase to?
5. Finally, after all this, you being the brilliant mastermind of espionage that you are, decide to instruct your asset to send a wire that's sure to attract attention. WTF?
6. Downsides. There are LOTS of them for Iran. World opinion, sanctions etc... not to mention more financial, military, SOF and covert support to their enemies.
Doesn't balance out in a risk vs. reward analysis, does it?
Sorry sports fans. I don't buy it. So then who did this? Who has the most to gain and the least to lose?
Obama? Nah. He's already gotten OBL. This isn't going to save him.
Holder? Nope. Sure it might deflect attention off the Fast Furious thing for a week but it's not enough.
What will be the effect of Americans believing that one ME country sent an assassin to kill the ambassador of another ME country on American soil?
Well, support for Israel is at a nice high level, here in America, right? Right. 63%
What about in the world? It's at an all-time low. 21%
The only countries the world views more negatively than Israel are Iran, N. Korea and Pakistan.
The Mossad is the best intel and espionage agency in the world. They have no rival. They also have an annoyingly effective presence in Iran. This would be well within their means and now has America and other countries reaffirming why we and they "need to protect and support our allies and the only democracy in the Middle East."
There has be a lot of talk abot not sending money overseas anymore, hasn't there? Guess who just got on the exemption list. It is also in their interest to make sure we are in the Middle East and it doesn't hurt them to turn American opinon against the country that declared they should be "wiped from the map".
Lots of upsides. Downsides? Zero.
Possible someone other than the Mossad did this? Of course. The answer? Whoever it is that has more to gain. The Saudis come to mind but that seems less likely. Who else? You tell me.
Just my former NIS mind at work...
When was the last time you heard anything about Qods? Unless you read a lot of international press, chances are never. Make no mistake about it. They're very good. They're like the Persian version of Navy Seals and CIA combined, similar to the old Soviet Vympel.
So
1. If you're a director level member of an intel agency and you want to hurt America and / or Saudi Arabia, there are better ways. You're dialed in throughout the Middle East. You've got your Hezbollah buddies, Al Qaeda and a dozen other groups in Iraq, Afghanistan and Yemen just waiting to help you. You got Saudis and American presence all over the place. You don't run the risk of damaging your country or more sanctions because it would be SO easy to blame any of a dozen terrorist organizations over there. You're too smart for this.
2. If you're in the intel business, the last thing you would do is get an Iranian involved! This would be like the CIA hiring an American living in Pakistan to coordinate a hit on OBL. There is no way anyone in an intel agency would create such an obvious trail.
3. Now we go from the ridiculous to the sublime. A loud-mouthed used care salesman? Seriously? An amateur? It just keep getting less viable.
4. So let's say ALL that is possible. For some reason, the Intel director decides the smart thing to do is attack where every intel agency is watching anyone named Abdul. He decides to hire someone who would create a trail directly back to his own country. He goes with a stupid amateur. What does he do next? Tells him to hire a cartel hitman from Mexico. What? There are no hitmen in New York? I mean, if you have gone to ZERO trouble to cover your tracks so far, why import talent now? Why not hire a local who you can just hand a briefcase to?
5. Finally, after all this, you being the brilliant mastermind of espionage that you are, decide to instruct your asset to send a wire that's sure to attract attention. WTF?
6. Downsides. There are LOTS of them for Iran. World opinion, sanctions etc... not to mention more financial, military, SOF and covert support to their enemies.
Doesn't balance out in a risk vs. reward analysis, does it?
Sorry sports fans. I don't buy it. So then who did this? Who has the most to gain and the least to lose?
Obama? Nah. He's already gotten OBL. This isn't going to save him.
Holder? Nope. Sure it might deflect attention off the Fast Furious thing for a week but it's not enough.
What will be the effect of Americans believing that one ME country sent an assassin to kill the ambassador of another ME country on American soil?
Well, support for Israel is at a nice high level, here in America, right? Right. 63%
What about in the world? It's at an all-time low. 21%
The only countries the world views more negatively than Israel are Iran, N. Korea and Pakistan.
The Mossad is the best intel and espionage agency in the world. They have no rival. They also have an annoyingly effective presence in Iran. This would be well within their means and now has America and other countries reaffirming why we and they "need to protect and support our allies and the only democracy in the Middle East."
There has be a lot of talk abot not sending money overseas anymore, hasn't there? Guess who just got on the exemption list. It is also in their interest to make sure we are in the Middle East and it doesn't hurt them to turn American opinon against the country that declared they should be "wiped from the map".
Lots of upsides. Downsides? Zero.
Possible someone other than the Mossad did this? Of course. The answer? Whoever it is that has more to gain. The Saudis come to mind but that seems less likely. Who else? You tell me.
Just my former NIS mind at work...
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