The Attempted Assassination of the Saudi Ambassador from an Intel Perspective

IndependntLogic

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So I'm not one inlcined to conspiracy theories and such but something seems amiss with the capture of this guy who was hiring a hitman to blow up the Saudi Ambassador.
When was the last time you heard anything about Qods? Unless you read a lot of international press, chances are never. Make no mistake about it. They're very good. They're like the Persian version of Navy Seals and CIA combined, similar to the old Soviet Vympel.
So
1. If you're a director level member of an intel agency and you want to hurt America and / or Saudi Arabia, there are better ways. You're dialed in throughout the Middle East. You've got your Hezbollah buddies, Al Qaeda and a dozen other groups in Iraq, Afghanistan and Yemen just waiting to help you. You got Saudis and American presence all over the place. You don't run the risk of damaging your country or more sanctions because it would be SO easy to blame any of a dozen terrorist organizations over there. You're too smart for this.
2. If you're in the intel business, the last thing you would do is get an Iranian involved! This would be like the CIA hiring an American living in Pakistan to coordinate a hit on OBL. There is no way anyone in an intel agency would create such an obvious trail.
3. Now we go from the ridiculous to the sublime. A loud-mouthed used care salesman? Seriously? An amateur? It just keep getting less viable.
4. So let's say ALL that is possible. For some reason, the Intel director decides the smart thing to do is attack where every intel agency is watching anyone named Abdul. He decides to hire someone who would create a trail directly back to his own country. He goes with a stupid amateur. What does he do next? Tells him to hire a cartel hitman from Mexico. What? There are no hitmen in New York? I mean, if you have gone to ZERO trouble to cover your tracks so far, why import talent now? Why not hire a local who you can just hand a briefcase to?
5. Finally, after all this, you being the brilliant mastermind of espionage that you are, decide to instruct your asset to send a wire that's sure to attract attention. WTF?
6. Downsides. There are LOTS of them for Iran. World opinion, sanctions etc... not to mention more financial, military, SOF and covert support to their enemies.
Doesn't balance out in a risk vs. reward analysis, does it?

Sorry sports fans. I don't buy it. So then who did this? Who has the most to gain and the least to lose?

Obama? Nah. He's already gotten OBL. This isn't going to save him.
Holder? Nope. Sure it might deflect attention off the Fast Furious thing for a week but it's not enough.
What will be the effect of Americans believing that one ME country sent an assassin to kill the ambassador of another ME country on American soil?
Well, support for Israel is at a nice high level, here in America, right? Right. 63%
What about in the world? It's at an all-time low. 21%
The only countries the world views more negatively than Israel are Iran, N. Korea and Pakistan.
The Mossad is the best intel and espionage agency in the world. They have no rival. They also have an annoyingly effective presence in Iran. This would be well within their means and now has America and other countries reaffirming why we and they "need to protect and support our allies and the only democracy in the Middle East."
There has be a lot of talk abot not sending money overseas anymore, hasn't there? Guess who just got on the exemption list. It is also in their interest to make sure we are in the Middle East and it doesn't hurt them to turn American opinon against the country that declared they should be "wiped from the map".
Lots of upsides. Downsides? Zero.

Possible someone other than the Mossad did this? Of course. The answer? Whoever it is that has more to gain. The Saudis come to mind but that seems less likely. Who else? You tell me.

Just my former NIS mind at work...
 
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USArmyRetired

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So I'm not one inlcined to conspiracy theories and such but something seems amiss with the capture of this guy who was hiring a hitman to blow up the Saudi Ambassador.
When was the last time you heard anything about Qods? Unless you read a lot of international press, chances are never. Make no mistake about it. They're very good. They're like the Persian version of Navy Seals and CIA combined, similar to the old Soviet Vympel.
So
1. If you're a director level member of an intel agency and you want to hurt America and / or Saudi Arabia, there are better ways. You're dialed in throughout the Middle East. You've got your Hezbollah buddies, Al Qaeda and a dozen other groups in Iraq, Afghanistan and Yemen just waiting to help you. You got Saudis and American presence all over the place. You don't run the risk of damaging your country or more sanctions because it would be SO easy to blame any of a dozen terrorist organizations over there. You're too smart for this.
2. If you're in the intel business, the last thing you would do is get an Iranian involved! This would be like the CIA hiring an American living in Pakistan to coordinate a hit on OBL. There is no way anyone in an intel agency would create such an obvious trail.
3. Now we go from the ridiculous to the sublime. A loud-mouthed used care salesman? Seriously? An amateur? It just keep getting less viable.
4. So let's say ALL that is possible. For some reason, the Intel director decides the smart thing to do is attack where every intel agency is watching anyone named Abdul. He decides to hire someone who would create a trail directly back to his own country. He goes with a stupid amateur. What does he do next? Tells him to hire a cartel hitman from Mexico. What? There are no hitmen in New York? I mean, if you have gone to ZERO trouble to cover your tracks so far, why import talent now? Why not hire a local who you can just hand a briefcase to?
5. Finally, after all this, you being the brilliant mastermind of espionage that you are, decide to instruct your asset to send a wire that's sure to attract attention. WTF?
6. Downsides. There are LOTS of them for Iran. World opinion, sanctions etc... not to mention more financial, military, SOF and covert support to their enemies.
Doesn't balance out in a risk vs. reward analysis, does it?

Sorry sports fans. I don't buy it. So then who did this? Who has the most to gain and the least to lose?

Obama? Nah. He's already gotten OBL. This isn't going to save him.
Holder? Nope. Sure it might deflect attention off the Fast Furious thing for a week but it's not enough.
What will be the effect of Americans believing that one ME country sent an assassin to kill the ambassador of another ME country on American soil?
Well, support for Israel is at a nice high level, here in America, right? Right. 63%
What about in the world? It's at an all-time low. 21%
The only countries the world views more negatively than Israel are Iran, N. Korea and Pakistan.
The Mossad is the best intel and espionage agency in the world. They have no rival. They also have an annoyingly effective presence in Iran. This would be well within their means and now has America and other countries reaffirming why we and they "need to protect and support our allies and the only democracy in the Middle East."
There has be a lot of talk abot not sending money overseas anymore, hasn't there? Guess who just got on the exemption list. It is also in their interest to make sure we are in the Middle East and it doesn't hurt them to turn American opinon against the country that declared they should be "wiped from the map".
Lots of upsides. Downsides? Zero.

Possible someone other than the Mossad did this? Of course. The answer? Whoever it is that has more to gain. The Saudis come to mind but that seems less likely. Who else? You tell me.

Just my former NIS mind at work...
It looks like the CIA set up Iran as part of a greater clandestine plan involving America's real enemies, both internal and external. Considering the fact that Ahmadinejad's government has reached out to South and Central America and established cultural and economic ties with the Latin world, it's safe to assume, from an intelligence analytical perspective, that Iran has other sleeper cells who have reached out to the Mexican drug lords and are waiting to penetrate our porous southern border.
 
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So, how come when I asked real Military guys about this 'Qods' they laughed at the suggestion that they were equal to the SEALs.
 

editec

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Either we're not getting the whole story, or this story seems pretty thin.

Future revelations might clear things us.

I guess if I were really trying to figure out who was involved I'd be asking myself who might want this particular guy killed.

We're talking about Saudi Royalty here, folks.

Assassinations and deadly power politics in the monarchist court are fairly common, I'd wager.

I mean come on, this is a Monarchy where people are still beheaded for sorcery!
 
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Either we're not getting the whole story, or this story seems pretty thin.

Future revelations might clear things us.

I guess if I were really trying to figure out who was involved I'd be asking myself who might want this particular guy killed.

We're talking about Saudi Royalty here, folks.

Assassinations and deadly power politics in the monarchist court are fairly common, I'd wager.

I mean come on, this is a Monarchy where people are still beheaded for sorcery!
We're not hearing the whole story.
 
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IndependntLogic

IndependntLogic

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So, how come when I asked real Military guys about this 'Qods' they laughed at the suggestion that they were equal to the SEALs.
As far as SOF combat forces go, I believe the Navy SEALs are the best there is. But other than ST6, they are usually mission-specific.
Anyone other than our intel agencies, military intel and a few others, America, including our military men, are taught that we are the best in every way. That's normal. Every country is.
Could a group of Qods take a groups of SEALS in a particular mission of limited scope? I'd put my money on the SEALs. But that's like saying Donald Trump isn't a good businessman because Bill Gates is so much better.
The Qods (or Quds) are very good at what they do. They are better at what they do, than we are - at what they do.
Back in my day (under Reagan), the Soviets had spetnaz. Their SEAL Team 6 was called Vympel. There were many things they were better than us at. They had a different function. In addition to combat, espionage etc... they all had to speak a foreign language fluently and without accent. Their assignments would have them living in the US & Europe undercover for years.
The Qods have a specific mission to promote Jihad. They report directly to Khomeini, the real power of Iran, not that azzhole puppet Achmiwhackyjob. Although they're led by Fundamentalist, make no mistake about it. Iran is very sophisticated. They have 20 times the military might and 100 times the wealth and technology of Iraq.
There is no way they planned THIS poorly. Hell, look at the OP and think about it. YOU could have planned this thing better, couldn't you!
It's like the plot to a really, really bad movie.
 

georgephillip

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"'If it weren’t for things like large amounts of money being deposited, and a guy floating around whom I assume they know to be a member of the Quds Force, I would say it just doesn’t feel right,' said Charles Faddis, a former CIA counterterrorism chief, 'beginning with the selection of a target in downtown D.C.

"It’s so clearly an act of war that it’s hard to imagine why the Iranians would sign on to that. And the tradecraft seems amateurish and sloppy. It’s crazy.'”

Analysis: Alleged Assassination Plot Doesn’t Fit Past Iranian Behavior - ProPublica

In the long-heaves-from-deep-left field category, when the US dollar ceases to function as the world's reserve currency, it will not be possible to pay for wars and occupations on the opposite side of the planet. That leaves Mexico. (again)
 

PoliticalChic

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Either we're not getting the whole story, or this story seems pretty thin.

Future revelations might clear things us.

I guess if I were really trying to figure out who was involved I'd be asking myself who might want this particular guy killed.

We're talking about Saudi Royalty here, folks.

Assassinations and deadly power politics in the monarchist court are fairly common, I'd wager.

I mean come on, this is a Monarchy where people are still beheaded for sorcery!

Seems universal, this story isn't going over...

...but, could this administration be so inept as to come up with a bunch of horsefeathers to cover Fast and Furious....

Oops....forgot who we were speaking of....

Case closed.
 
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IndependntLogic

IndependntLogic

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Either we're not getting the whole story, or this story seems pretty thin.

Future revelations might clear things us.

I guess if I were really trying to figure out who was involved I'd be asking myself who might want this particular guy killed.

We're talking about Saudi Royalty here, folks.

Assassinations and deadly power politics in the monarchist court are fairly common, I'd wager.

I mean come on, this is a Monarchy where people are still beheaded for sorcery!

Seems universal, this story isn't going over...

...but, could this administration be so inept as to come up with a bunch of horsefeathers to cover Fast and Furious....

Oops....forgot who we were speaking of....

Case closed.
Definitely not. It comes to motive. What does this do for Obama or Holder? What's the Risk vs Reward?
Best case scenario, it's a temporary diversion but guess what? If taking out Osama bin Laden can't get Obama above a 50% approval rating, he knows thwarting a plot isn't going to do it either.
Holder? This is putting a band-aid on a bullet wound. F&F is not going away or going to be even seriously delayed by this.
If it is discovered it originated domestically? The blowback would be beyond measure.
So
Upside: Negligible to Zero.
Downside: Overwhelming.

Doesn't make sense.
 

Toome

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The Mossad is overrated. They've had colossal fuck-ups on an epic scale. Not to be outdone, the CIA usually out-fucks Israeli fuck-ups. Gotta be #1 at something.
 

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