...I will not vote for Mitt because I think America is on the brink of collapse, because I don't think we're close.
Well then, that kinda puts ya in the camp with neocons/RINOs/liberals/progressives, ant. Cause that's what they believe.
Most people from any philosophical background feel that way because this is a mathematical problem with mathematical indicators.
Those indicators don't predict a financial collapse.
Truth is though, our national debt is OVER 100% of our GDP for the FIRST TIME IN HISTORY. It has historically run at 20% or LESS of our GDP. Even during the worst of times. Paul Ryan called for a return to that standard in his speech Wednesday.
This is the math which does not add up:
This is not the first time we've crested 100% in our history. Historically, our debt hasn't been 20% of GDP. That 20% statement was the only substantive statement of Ryan's speech, and I heard it loud and clear: annual government spending to equal 20% of GDP... very, very different.
How we understand history and how we hear what is told us will make a difference in what we believe.
Our credit rating as a COUNTRY was downgraded by one of the major ratings agencies for the FIRST IN HISTORY last year.
The Federal Reserve has been amortizing our debt. That's for the FIRST TIME IN HISTORY and for over a year now. Which is the same thing that happened to England, Germany, Japan...and every major economy in the last 60 years just before it's total collapse. The ONLY reason they recovered...is because WE, the United States bailed them out. Just WHO is going to bail us out...China? Is China who you want to OWN our future?
Republicans and conservatives are optimist, ant. We BELIEVE in American's and their ability to overcome. Our worry is NOT that we won't SURVIVE this fiscal insanity. Our worry is how much PAIN are Americans going to have to endure just to overcome when it CAN be avoided IF we ACT NOW!
Just to put the urgency into perspective, if you spent 1 MILLION DOLLARS A DAY, every day, 365 days a year, it would take you nearly 3,000 YEARS to spend 1 trillion dollars. We are 16 trillion in debt. THAT will only take you 44 THOUSAND YEARS to spend at 1 million per day.
Or put another way, every single baby that is born in this country owes with the first breath it draws on this earth, 51,600 dollars. That's a 51 THOUSAND dollar BIRTH TAX! Hell, you, me...EVERYONE owes 51,600 bucks and according to the CBO, if Obama gets another 4 years, that debt will be at LEAST 20 TRILLION dollars and that birth tax will be a nearly 65 thousand dollars.
ok, ok.
What if you understand these matters before a politician brought them to your attention? What happens when you also know
it would take 40-some thousand years to spend our annual GDP at a million/year, and that there are all kinds of ways to be hysterical with trillions of dollars? What happens when you know babies aren't born with a lil' share of the debt and that political devices commonly go so far from reality that they just aren't credible?
If I have to look back at my last 4-6 years and feel bad about my life or my country, or blame government in order to support the GOP, I will be a difficult vote to earn.
Actually ant, 64% of ALL Americans...NOT just conservatives, believe that debt and deficit spending is the greatest DANGER this country faces. It beats terrorism by country mile in polling. So the statement that "
Most people from any philosophical background feel that way..." is based on a fallacy, cause the 38% remainder is not most.
And as to the experts views. DOZENS of top economist in this country are warning that if we don't get our debt and this insane deficit spending under control, we ARE headed toward a Weimar type of collapse. If you don't know history...look it up.
The REASONS for the conditions are different than they were in 1920's Germany, but the conditions them selves are approaching IDENTICAL!
HUGE debt, about 8 billion was about 100% of their GDP, unemployment that rose from 2% 1921 to 23% by the end in '33, production fell and GDP dropped...WHICH led to huge shortfalls in tax revenue and the Weimar Government amortizing it's debt and printing more and more money to cover it. Sound familiar? It should! Ever hear of QE 1 or QE 2. If not...you had BETTER look it up too!
And WE have a REPORTED unemployment rate above 8% for nearly 4 years for the FIRST TIME IN HISTORY in this country. And the ACTUAL unemployment rate is closer to 14%. The only reason inflation isn't approaching 12% is because politicians LIE and changed the way it's reported back in the 80's to cover their asses and jobs.
When the debt was called by the the Europeans and Germany couldn't pay up, the result was hyper inflation where the exchange rate in 1920 went form 14 marks per 1 US dollar to 4.2 BILLION per US dollar just 3 years later. It LITERALLY took a wheelbarrow of money to buy a loaf of bread!
What happens if the Chinese call our debt? What "concessions" will we have to make to avoid bankruptcy? See, the Germans got Hitler and his socialist workers party government out of it. Just WHAT are you willing to risk in an AVOIDABLE future?
As I said, the CAUSES for the conditions the Germans found themselves in were slightly different than ours, but the conditions themselves are FAST approaching the same and there are quite literally dozens of leading economist WARNING JUST THAT!
As to the national debt, you are right. I might more rightly have said, it has reached 103% of our GDP for the first time in our PEACE TIME history and only the SECOND time in modern history. See, it DID go over 100% in the LAST YEAR of WWII and quickly began to fall back down to just about 20% of our GDP after the war ended.
That's UNTIL the big government explosion in the late 70's. And I say in modern history, because until the first progressive president, Woodrow Wilson and his Fabien Socialist associates started showing up in our government, our debt to GDP never exceeded 10%!!!
However, the AVERAGE over our history has been just under 20%. That's just a fact and it no coincidence that when we keep our SPENDING under 20%, our debt stays low as well. THAT is just common sense!
As to my perceptions...uh, I was likely keeping up with this stuff before most of the folks reading this thread were even born. And the HISTORY of our country and our economy was NOT taught to me by sound bites from politicians sprayed out over air waves or the ramblings of blogers on the internet. My perceptions were earned by interest and experience.
And the FACT that it will take 44 THOUSAND YEARS to spend 16 trillion dollars, spending 1 million dollars PER DAY...NOT year. You really need to understand the gravity of this to be able to put it into perspective. 1 million a DAY...every day for 44 THOUSAND YEARS to spend 16 trillion dollars.
That is the thing progressives don't seem to understand. The magnitude of the difference between a million, a billion and a trillion. Once a number gets so big that it's just expressed as a point, like 22.5 trillion, the amount the CBO ACTUALLY projects our deficit will be if Obama gets another 4 years, progressives just tune out the MAGNITUDE of that number.
But until they do, we are ALWAYS going to struggle educating people to the danger we are in!