Ahhhh yes, the ever popular ozone hole. Supposedly "discovered" in the '80's (though theorised in the '70's and actually observed in the
20's!) and then what they find is CFC's might have an effect but the overwhelming cause of the hole is.....wait for it....COLD WEATHER! Holy shit batman, you mean its mainly natural?
Peering into the Ozone Hole
Concentrations of ozone-destroying gases are down, but the Antarctic ozone hole is bigger than ever. It turns out there's more to ozone destruction than just CFCs.
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October 2, 2000 -- Scientists have some good news and some bad news for ozone watchers. Concentrations of ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) have leveled off in the stratosphere and actually declined in the lower atmosphere, raising hopes for a recovery of the ozone layer. That's the good news.
The bad news is that NASA satellites spotted the largest Antarctic ozone hole ever recorded on September 9, 2000, and the effects of global climate change may exacerbate the problem.
Right: Image of the record-size ozone hole taken by NASA satellites on September 9, 2000. Blue denotes low ozone concentrations and yellow and red denote higher levels of ozone. Notice the "croissant" of high ozone concentrations formed when the Antarctic vortex blocks the southerly migration of ozone formed in the tropics. [More images and credits]
Why are we seeing the worst-ever ozone hole when 13 years of regulation are finally bringing CFC levels under control?
"The first point is that these processes are really slow," said Dr. Richard McPeters, principal investigator for NASA's Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC).
"It takes a long time for the CFCs to get up into the stratosphere in the first place, so it's going to take a long time for them to come back out," McPeters said.
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CFCs released at the ground diffuse upward through the lowest layer of the atmosphere, called the troposphere. The vertical air currents of tropospheric weather help push CFCs up to the next layer, the stratosphere. Once there, CFCs rise more slowly because stratospheric air has less vertical air movement.
In fact, it can take a CFC molecule about 2 years after being released at the ground to make it to the stratosphere where the ozone is. And it can take decades for it to be converted by sunlight into a form that is harmful to ozone, according to Dr. Charles Jackman, an atmospheric modeler at GSFC.
Once a CFC molecule is converted to its destructive form, it can linger in the stratosphere for a few years before it drifts back down into the troposphere in the form of hydrogen chloride (HCl) and is washed out of the atmosphere by rain, Jackman said.
In 1994, NOAA scientists first measured a decrease in the amount of CFCs in the lowest layer of the atmosphere. Since these CFCs would eventually work their way up to the stratosphere -- where the ozone is -- this finding gave hope that CFC concentrations in the stratosphere would also soon begin to decline.
"It'll be a number of years before you start to see real reductions in the CFCs in the stratosphere," McPeters said.
Model calculations suggest that ozone recovery to pre-1980 levels could take 20 to 40 years, he explained. "So it's not something where you'd expect to see a big change this year."
Above: A graph showing the concentrations of one type of CFC over time. Notice the steady rise until about 1990 -- three years after the Montreal Protocol established a phase-out program for CFCs. Concentrations of CFCs have started to decline. In the graph, "ppt" stands for parts per trillion, not parts per thousand. [more information]
Although the concentration of CFCs in the stratosphere appears to have leveled off, the size of the ozone hole won't necessarily level off with it.
"What's happening right now is you have the CFCs at a very high level, and this gives you a background of low ozone," McPeters explained. "And then from one year to the next, whether you have a particularly deep hole or not sort of depends on the stratospheric 'weather' that you have in the Southern Hemisphere."
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Because of the overwhelming role of weather in the ozone hole, it means it's really unpredictable," McPeters said. "That's what makes it fun to measure ozone -- every year it surprises us."
This year's record ozone hole occurred largely as a result of the particularly cold winter in Antarctica, McPeters said."
Peering into the Ozone Hole - NASA Science