Thanksgiving NFL lineup - who ya got?

[leftwinger]

Games are getting tighter. Teams getting tighter with the ball.

Which (individual teams) will break 16.5 points? DET? KC? BALT? DAL? would you guarantee that? They AVG over 20.
Would you go over 19.5 points on anyone team? Buehler?
How high would you feel comfortable? Simulations typically match the teams AVG scored. uh, no thank you.
note: recently BUFF only scored 13 at MIAMI. JVILLE or DEN-NYG did not crack 13 points in those overseas games? I forget but I pretty sure I lost on DEN over there.

Who is a lock to break 12.5 points? DAL? GB? all of them? Can CIN score if BALT defense shows up? What if KC or DET eats up the clock out with AVG 4 yard runs? Some teams only get 1 possession per quarter, or 4-6 chances per game per team for the really dud teams dud games, conservative games? Boring. unless you have a bet that includes points scored per team.

Who can break measly 9.5pts? MINN only got 6 pts, TB got 7? CAR got 9*? last week. NYJ , OAK only got 10.
*took one point off the board to go for 2, made little sense? Costing me a parlay bet using CAR over 9.5, anger much?

Can they all break 5.5pts? Probably? Probable payback is pennies on the tens of dollars stand alone.

Just an example. If you find someone huddled sweating swearing at Jesus on the couch, they might be waiting on an over to come in.

 

[leftwinger]

Without REDZONE CH...whatever will I do? One game at a time over 4 hours each?

That means MUTE for certain....no coming off. Over 2 hours of commercials, nearly 1.5 hours of talking "experts"? UGH! 12 minutes of football plays? 60-70 plays perhaps? maybe 5 of them really exciting?
Priceless.

Run it up the middle when close to goal line. That'll work. OK Marty Shottenhiemer or Tomlin. We can overpower you!
Or Go into the shotgun near the goal line and hand it off running sideways, right. Let's go! smh.

Granted. Nothing is easy. I know. Last weeks DEN and SEA started out with several possessions inside the 5. They got FG. They both lost. uh-huh. Whos' smart now?

Maybe it's better to stay 10 yds back from Goal line and try to pass it in if you are Joe Burrow.
I know. Save it all for the playoffs?

 

[odanny]

That means MUTE for certain....no coming off. Over 2 hours of commercials, nearly 1.5 hours of talking "experts"? UGH! 12 minutes of football plays? 60-70 plays perhaps? maybe 5 of them really exciting?
Priceless.

If you are like me and can watch NFL when you already know the outcome, "condensed replay" of all the games on YouTube (with their NFL package, which allows you to "multiview" up to 4 games at once of live action) is good, but especially the condensed replay of all the games, the games are 35:00 to 40:00 each and only NFL action.

They include just enough of "regular" footage to keep it feeling like watching the entire game.

 

[MarathonMike]

The PLAYOFFS have started. For KC and DAL most certainly. Both must WIN OUT to win the SB? probably? unless...?

GB/DET similar situation, chasing CHI? That is hard to even type out lol!.

BALT? maybe they can lose a game and still make the DIV (but not WC?) chasing the Steelers with (Rogers ugh!)

FlaKco cost CIN the game last week (and rest of season) with a goal-line Pick 6 I saw on RedZone that even I would not have thrown. What a big dumb OX some of the QB are. These teams pull these immobile stiffs like Gino or Flakco off the dumpster pile and expect to win? Winston did the same ion the NY game.....late silly interception practically sealed the loss.

Will Dak revert to old Dak or will he pull out a win like he did against the Eagles? If they were in KC I would say no but I have this feeling he's going to do it this time. And I'm an ABC guy, Anyone But Cowboys.

 

[leftwinger]

Will Dak revert to old Dak or will he pull out a win like he did against the Eagles? If they were in KC I would say no but I have this feeling he's going to do it this time. And I'm an ABC guy, Anyone But Cowboys.

Yeah that was weird. I thought they were done. But the Eagles quit scoring and the Cowboys started up. Did that fumbled punt result in a score? I forget.

 

[pknopp]

The one vote for the Packers are 1-0.

 

[leftwinger]

The one vote for the Packers are 1-0.

Packers were better from start to finish. Great win for them today. Super Bowl ready again? DET going the wrong way overall worse.

Where was this vs. CAR and PHI weeks back losing both scoring close to nothing?

 

[leftwinger]

Will Dak revert to old Dak or will he pull out a win like he did against the Eagles? If they were in KC I would say no but I have this feeling he's going to do it this time. And I'm an ABC guy, Anyone But Cowboys.

KC did all the KC stuff last week. Getting defense stops, long 3rd 4th down when had to have it, game on the line.
KC with speed at wide outs again too. I would lean KC over DAL defense. KC more complete?

That said, normally I don't bet teams. I build low hanging fruit parlays. Take 20% to 50% payback. Be happy.


Ooops...there were go. DAK picked off, TD KC right after.

 

[MarathonMike]

KC did all the KC stuff last week. Getting defense stops, long 3rd 4th down when had to have it, game on the line.
KC with speed at wide outs again too. I would lean KC over DAL defense. KC more complete?

That said, normally I don't bet teams. I build low hanging fruit parlays. Take 20% payback. Be happy.


Ooops...there were go. DAK picked off, TD KC right after.

I've been experimenting with "free money" on Draft Kings. I've been doing rushing prop parlays also low hanging fruit. Not doing well so far, still dialing in my system LoL.

 

[leftwinger]

I've been experimenting with "free money" on Draft Kings. I've been doing rushing prop parlays also low hanging fruit. Not doing well so far, still dialing in my system LoL.

I've had best luck when full slate of games and parlay "can't miss" bets across games. Morning games group, afternoon and night groups. Its a lot of work. AND posting here too. My biggest winners are 45-55% payback maybe 12-15 piece parlays? I know, sounds crazy but single games don't work. I can't guarantee I know who is going to win by how much.

Example: a KC vs. OAK. KC is favored but I would bet they don't lose by 10.5 or 17.5 maybe? Piece that together with scoring 9.5+
Bet OAK not to lose by more than 34.5? Scoring more than 5.5.

Disclaimer: it is for fun. $10 $25 here & there. Lose one you need to win 5 to get even.

 

[leftwinger]

I've been experimenting with "free money" on Draft Kings. I've been doing rushing prop parlays also low hanging fruit. Not doing well so far, still dialing in my system LoL.

What is free money? I sometimes get no risk bets returned $10 max or 30% profit boost but they always come with restrictions. Like must be +100 or -100.

They don't have free anything.

 

[leftwinger]

Games with two better teams (DET vs GB) who may not lose by much? And score work best for me

Unpredictable junk wild flucuation teams with games quarters halves up-down best if I avoid.

DAL I dont mind to use for scoring because FG kicker good for 3-5 FG.

 

[MarathonMike]

What is free money? I sometimes get no risk bets returned $10 max or 30% profit boost but they always come with restrictions. Like must be +100 or -100.

They don't have free anything.

They had a promotion awhile back Deposit $5 and get $300 in bonus bets. So not totally free but I ended up turning the bonus bets into $150 real cash. Then I did good in baseball betting unders mostly and got it up to about $370. My parlay system brought me down to $310. But like you, this is just for grins.

 

[leftwinger]

They had a promotion awhile back Deposit $5 and get $300 in bonus bets. So not totally free but I ended up turning the bonus bets into $150 real cash. Then I did good in baseball betting unders mostly and got it up to about $370. My parlay system brought me down to $310. But like you, this is just for grins.

Yes keeps me active. Example: Sometimes I don't watch much. Don't care who wins. Just beat my numbers. College you can't pick point levels per team on my site.

 

[odanny]

The one vote for the Packers are 1-0.

I changed my mind on this game and played three fantasy lineups with Love, Wicks, and Williams from this game, all smashed.

 

[leftwinger]

They had a promotion awhile back Deposit $5 and get $300 in bonus bets. So not totally free but I ended up turning the bonus bets into $150 real cash. Then I did good in baseball betting unders mostly and got it up to about $370. My parlay system brought me down to $310. But like you, this is just for grins.

I was betting over under MLB games first five innings figuring the starter might last.

Or bet over 1.5 runs for whole game (low payback) parlay with 5 innings under the max 8.5 or 9.5 pregame? Did it go as high as 13.5 sometimes? Depends on the pitchers too.

 

[Roshambo]

Tampa Browns +6
Detroit Raiders +3

 

[MarathonMike]

I was betting over under MLB games first five innings figuring the starter might last.

Or bet over 1.5 runs for whole game (low payback) parlay with 5 innings under the max 8.5 or 9.5 pregame? Did it go as high as 13.5 sometimes? Depends on the pitchers too.

I just bet strong pitching match ups and looked for 8 or 7.5 under totals. That worked well but baseball is over.

 

[leftwinger]

Looks like I'm way off on KC. MM is right again. KC cant stop DAL run or pass. Time is going to run out on them. Edit: I thought it was the 4th quarter already. There's still some time.

Without that blocking PI call. Game would be at least tied up I think?

 

[MarathonMike]

Looks like I'm way off on KC. MM is right again. KC cant stop DAL run or pass. Time is going to run out on them.

Without that blocking PI call. Game would be at least tied up I think?

Why did the NFL drop the challenges on PI and non-PI? Do you remember? Umpires and Refs changing big games with crappy calls drives me crazy!