from the article I linked to...
While the article mentions 2014, and some associated increases, those increases do not simple go away after 2012. It CLEARLY shows that after 2014, Medicade expenditures alone will be $700 billion over the following 8 years (not a single year bump, dick breath).
Oy, don't they teach kids about derivatives in school anymore? You were talking about a
rate of increase--a one-year bump in the rate at which national health spending rises, attributable to an influx of newly-insured folks. Total spending at the end of the decade will be slightly higher because of that temporary increase in the rate of growth (that's how derivatives work) but that's not the same as implying the increased growth rate is a permanent fixture, as opposed to being a number specific to the year 2014.
So, the Forbes piece does NOT agree with your asinine assertion that Obamacare controls costs. It drastically increases them. Even a pea brained, mouth breathing clitwhistle like you should be able to do basic math.
To repeat: The actuaries' paper does not--and should not--forecast the spending impact of the various cost/quality reforms in the ACA (though forecasts of their effects are
not hard to come by). That is, they ignored most of the cost containment and quality improvement pieces of the law--i.e. the majority of the law--in favor of examining only the impact of the coverage pieces. And that's fine, there are good reasons to do that; however, that does have the side effect of confusing folks like yourself.
These projections remain subject to substantial uncertainty given the variable nature of future economic trends and a lack of historical experience for many Affordable Care Act health system reforms. Moreover, “supply-side” impacts of the Affordable Care Act, such as changes in provider behavior in reaction to an influx of newly insured patients, remain highly uncertain and are not estimated at this time.
As I mentioned, there's already some
preliminary evidence (well, and
open admissions from certain providers that this is the case) that provider behavior is already beginning to change in favor of new care processes to cut costs. The impacts of these changes would not be captured in an analysis like the CMS actuaries'.
The sky still isn't falling, Chicken Little.
Um, no... my source doesn't say anything like that.
Is the CMS actuaries' paper not the basis for
everything you've stated thus far? I'm referring to the actual source, not second-hand discussions of it. And yes, due in large part to the ACA's tax treatment of employer-sponsored coverage, at the end of the forecast window they see the start of "a slowdown in the growth of health services, health insurance premiums, and health spending overall."
As for your Medicare curve bending "downwards"? I beg to differ. If you look at your graph the curve is still going up not bending down. The best you could say is that it isn't going up at as steep an angle as before...which is a long ways from something going down.
I hate to break it to you, but barring some sort of catastrophic drop in national income, health spending is always going to monotonically increase. What we're interested in is the
rate at which health spending grows, particularly as it compares to GDP growth. Slower growth in health expenditures--"bending the cost curve"--is the goal of any cost containment proposal, not introducing some kind of deflationary epoch in the health sector.