Stock Market At All Time High

[Harpy Eagle]

Charts are charts

Yes and no.

I can present the same data on two different charts and make it look very, very different.

 

[JohnDB]

Yes and no.

I can present the same data on two different charts and make it look very, very different.

No KIDDING! I almost lost a chunk on a bad chart once until I figured out they were playing games with the numbers on the side making things look different from reality.
Which is why I look carefully at the numbers on the side and bottom to see if what they are saying is true.
Movement is what makes money...a lack of it loses money. Relative money is what's important. A 1% move can be humongous or a nothing....it just depends on what you are doing. But a chart can either minimize it or blow it up....so I use my account charts at schwab so I am double positive before I do anything....

The Yen is in free fall...so most of Japan's investors are pouring money into the American markets trying to save their assets and pulling it out of their markets at the same time....now this flow is going to stop soon and go the other way when the Yen stops falling and begins climbing again. And that's when it's going to hurt the average american person.

That chart that shows global credit or production...that one is the killer. It means that the stock market is artificially high. P/E ratios have been high for a while...too high. You have to have earnings from sales.

Stock buybacks are not dividends...and I love dividends on a gaining stock like ET. Past couple of years and that one has paid very well...especially on DRIP.

 

[JohnDB]

Here's some basic signals for trading....

 

[citygator]

You do love yourself some twitter that is for sure. Keeps you from having to think for yourself it seems.

JohnDB would have to be an idiot to think the dollar is soft. He fell for a twitter account that snipped the top right of that chart. Hilarious.

 

[JohnDB]

JohnDB would have to be an idiot to think the dollar is soft. He fell for a twitter account that snipped the top right of that chart. Hilarious.

View attachment 879768

Now by that chart...the dollar looks like it's on a steady incline equilibrium point after a falling down post 2020....and this is FOREX...so....well....it's not exactly what you think.

But here's Fineviz look at the dollar for the past year....not the past 20.

 

[HikerGuy83]

Inflation down and the stock market booming

Inflation is down ?



Please keep making that claim. It's great.

The rate of inflation has come down, but is still higher than normal if you are honest about it.

That rate, integrated across the past couple of years has prices on different things up 10 to 30%. Those prices have not come down.

 

[westwall]

Nope...I'm actually good at spotting the diving stocks.

Commodities look really good right now. Gold, silver, and wheat.

And ammunition. Don't forget that.

I just sold the last of my stock other than single share place holders that I will rebuy when the market crashes.

So yeah, I agree. This is the bubble forming very quickly. When it pops it's going to be a doozy.

 

[JohnDB]

Here's the Yen that I was discussing earlier..

 

[citygator]

Here's the Yen that I was discussing earlier..

Another nonsense view. Here is the Yen over time.

 

[JohnDB]

 

[odanny]

Today my balance is up 9.40% for the year. I don't expect these gains to ever be permanent, I did not start investing yesterday.


But for today.........

 

[Harpy Eagle]

and?

 

[JohnDB]

and?

It correlates to what I said earlier about commodities...like gold, silver, wheat and now rice.

I think with the falling home prices construction starts will not keep pace with lumber so that price will rise but not as much as some of the others. Oil looks OK-ish but it's really fickle to be played well. A lot of bad actors can screw with the prices.

Coffee? I really don't see the demand increasing as Starbucks and the other Coffee shops are not performing as they once were and offices occupied are probably at the new normal rates. Production can easily outpace demand here. (Drought notwithstanding)

Cotton, corn, sugar, rough rice, wheat and other commodities should continue to climb but watch your volumes. Beef is already high....but feeder vx live is a tricky thing.
Transports and container prices are flat once again....so there's plenty of room to ship these things once again unlike when India's bumper crop of sugar and cotton ceased to exist for lack of containers or room to ship.

Just saying....make up your own mind about what these things mean. I'm seeing the US stock markets being "pump and dump" but your opinion may vary from information you see and believe. But hey....watch what Nancy Pelosi trades....she ain't lost so much as a nickel with her trading in her tenure as a congressman. And she just bout about 5 million in options of a single company. Might be worth looking into.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

It correlates to what I said earlier about commodities...like gold, silver, wheat and now rice.

I hope you bought your rice commodities 6 months ago or you missed the boat.

 

[JohnDB]

I hope you bought your rice commodities 6 months ago or you missed the boat.

Let's wait and see eh?

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Let's wait and see eh?

Indeed. If the USDA has it correct rice production will be up worldwide next year.

 

[JohnDB]

Here's one to watch....they have many....but let's pick one or all.

Commodity Strategy ETF | COM | Direxion

The Direxion Auspice Broad Commodity Strategy ETF seeks to provide total returns that exceed that of the Auspice Broad Commodity Index over a complete market cycle.

www.direxion.com

 

[JohnDB]

Indeed. If the USDA has it correct rice production will be up worldwide next year.

Here's a chart I use regularly....

Futures

Stock screener for investors and traders, financial visualizations.

finviz.com

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Here's a chart I use regularly....

Futures

Stock screener for investors and traders, financial visualizations.

finviz.com

I tend to lean towards the raw data from the USDA on crops.

They have a lot of reports, but this one puts it all in one neat package if you do not want to dig for the individual ones.

WASDE Report

The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) is prepared and released by the World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB).

www.usda.gov

Based on the Dec WASDE I would not expect rice to go up much more

 

[JohnDB]

I tend to lean towards the raw data from the USDA on crops.

They have a lot of reports, but this one puts it all in one neat package if you do not want to dig for the individual ones.

WASDE Report

The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) is prepared and released by the World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB).

www.usda.gov

Based on the Dec WASDE I would not expect rice to go up much more

Nice charts...
However....never underestimate the power of Bipolar investors with literally billions of dollars at their disposal. They have herd mentality even if it's going over a cliff. (Such is the case for the current stock market being overly overbought)

And some of those predictions of WASDE are not exactly pricing in inflation...if anything they seem to be pricing for a global recession.... just saying....

But let's see what comes. I haven't looked recently but even coffee is gaining strength lately and doesn't look like it's going down anytime soon either. Of course that can change on a dime....too many variables to consider for a solid evaluation from weather crops, exchange rates, and etc. And it takes a minute to pull it altogether.

Coffee means Brazilian Real,currency which is dependent upon Chinese contracts for goods....and then all this has to eventually equate to dollars....it gets complicated in a hurry. Then the coffee trees and bushes from Africa and Vietnam configure as well. All of these are dependent upon weather for growing and harvesting. (Mountain roads are difficult)

Right Temps at the right time and same thing for rain. Fertilizers are an absolute must....

And this same formula for coffee is used for wheat, rice, corn, oats, sugar and etc. Whoever produces the most or has a large crop of a particular commodity.
BUT
During periods of inflation, recession, and currency volatility many traders seek commodities for stability. Which can make prices skyrocket.