Stock Market At All Time High

[JohnDB]

 

[Harpy Eagle]

And some of those predictions of WASDE are not exactly pricing in inflation...if anything they seem to be pricing for a global recession.... just saying....

The numbers in the WASDE are based on production/demand and current stocks of each commodity.

And this same formula for coffee is used for wheat, rice, corn, oats, sugar and etc. Whoever produces the most or has a large crop of a particular commodity.

Coffee is far more effected by weather and such then commodities like rice or wheat or beans and corn.

 

[JohnDB]

The numbers in the WASDE are based on production/demand and current stocks of each commodity.



Coffee is far more effected by weather and such then commodities like rice or wheat or beans and corn.

Uhhhh.....
How do you figure that rice, wheat, beans, and corn are not affected by weather?

These are global commodities that are grown around the world in both hemispheres. Global weather reports are like the thing watched like a hawk in various regions for the particular softs you trade.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Uhhhh.....
How do you figure that rice, wheat, beans, and corn are not affected by weather?

Because they are not near as much as something like coffee is. Coffee has about a 15 to 20 degree range where it can grow well, anything above or below that is harmful to the growth cycle.

Field corn and soybeans are fine in anything from 40 degrees to 100.

Coffee needs a good 60 to 70 inches of rain a year to thrive and is often grown in places that make irrigation not feasible. Field corn needs maybe 20 and can easily be irrigated, same holds true for beans.

Winter wheat can do fine with half of what corn needs.

Rice is basically grown in the water and needs a source of irrigation and as such is not as reliant on rain.

These are global commodities that are grown around the world in both hemispheres. Global weather reports are like the thing watched like a hawk in various regions for the particular softs you trade.

They are indeed, but but are a more stable/hearty plant than coffee, which is why I do not mess with coffee other than to drink.

 

[JohnDB]

Because they are not near as much as something like coffee is. Coffee has about a 15 to 20 degree range where it can grow well, anything above or below that is harmful to the growth cycle.

Field corn and soybeans are fine in anything from 40 degrees to 100.

Coffee needs a good 60 to 70 inches of rain a year to thrive and is often grown in places that make irrigation not feasible. Field corn needs maybe 20 and can easily be irrigated, same holds true for beans.

Winter wheat can do fine with half of what corn needs.

Rice is basically grown in the water and needs a source of irrigation and as such is not as reliant on rain.



They are indeed, but but are a more stable/hearty plant than coffee, which is why I do not mess with coffee other than to drink.

Coffee is grown at high elevations (mountains) in tropical climates....so it's fairly stable but the other crops are grown where irrigation is not necessarily feasible.
California has for decades had an ongoing fight over water for irrigation and power production. (There never seems to be enough) between the citrus growers, avocado groves, and the other farmers there...there is a constant battle over water.
And indeed everywhere there is heavy agricultural production the fighting over water gets fierce. Sometimes to the point of armed conflicts. Rain increases production and decreases conflicts....drought causes fighting and lower production. Those reservoirs don't fill by magic.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

so it's fairly stable but the other crops are grown where irrigation is not necessarily feasible.
California has for decades had an ongoing fight over water for irrigation and power production. (There never seems to be enough) between the citrus growers, avocado groves, and the other farmers there...there is a constant battle over water.

Indeed they are. Yuma Az is (or was when we lived there) the Lettuce Capital of the world. There was an article posted on this forum about the water usage by dairy farms that have moved to places like Idaho. This will have to stop eventually.

I would never do any sort of investing in those crops.

Here in the mid-west where, in the US at least, the majority of soy beans and field corn is grown none of that is really an issue unless there is a massive draught like back in 2012 I think it was. The corn/soybean region of Brazil is likewise pretty stable area for those crops to grow. Their biggest drawback is still getting it from the growing region to the ports, but China is helping them build a rail system taking it straight to Chinese ran ports.

If they ever solve the transportation problem they will destroy our farmers pricing wise.

 

[JohnDB]

Indeed they are. Yuma Az is (or was when we lived there) the Lettuce Capital of the world. There was an article posted on this forum about the water usage by dairy farms that have moved to places like Idaho. This will have to stop eventually.

I would never do any sort of investing in those crops.

Here in the mid-west where, in the US at least, the majority of soy beans and field corn is grown none of that is really an issue unless there is a massive draught like back in 2012 I think it was. The corn/soybean region of Brazil is likewise pretty stable area for those crops to grow. Their biggest drawback is still getting it from the growing region to the ports, but China is helping them build a rail system taking it straight to Chinese ran ports.

If they ever solve the transportation problem they will destroy our farmers pricing wise.

Not really....crops also need fertilizers and pesticides....and that means petroleum products. That's something that requires refineries, pipelines and infrastructure that railroads, roads and etc just don't exist and require constant maintenance....in a tropical climate. (Rust is not a joke there...even concrete has issues with mildew destroying everything....it's a jungle out there)

Brazil produces a LOT of stuff....but the weather there does not allow for a lot of infrastructure without increased maintenance costs. China is currently heavily contracting with Brazil....but let's see what comes when everything falls apart. And the political climate in Brazil is also changing....that's another issue. (They tend to shoot themselves in the foot a lot)

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Not really....crops also need fertilizers and pesticides....and that means petroleum products. That's something that requires refineries, pipelines and infrastructure that railroads, roads and etc just don't exist and require constant maintenance....in a tropical climate. (Rust is not a joke there...even concrete has issues with mildew destroying everything....it's a jungle out there)

Brazil produces a LOT of stuff....but the weather there does not allow for a lot of infrastructure without increased maintenance costs. China is currently heavily contracting with Brazil....but let's see what comes when everything falls apart. And the political climate in Brazil is also changing....that's another issue. (They tend to shoot themselves in the foot a lot)

Right now the only reason the US farmers can produce and get to market cheaper than Brazil is the Mississippi river and the rail system leading to it. Our cost per acre is twice that of Brazil for soybeans. We are saved by cheap, abundant transportation options.

As I said, IF they ever solve the transportation problem the US farmers will not be able to compete

 

[JohnDB]

Right now the only reason the US farmers can produce and get to market cheaper than Brazil is the Mississippi river and the rail system leading to it. Our cost per acre is twice that of Brazil for soybeans. We are saved by cheap, abundant transportation options.

As I said, IF they ever solve the transportation problem the US farmers will not be able to compete

They also have to get it to port...then by ship to the US...then pay the docking fees. Which is where the whole thing falls apart. Brazil only has ports in the North....not the South (which has the most growing regions)
And the ocean ports are somewhat antiquated. A lot of goods are shipped by barge on the Pantanal River (The Northern beaches are nice though)

The US ports are getting an upgrade. (Something Biden did right as far as I can tell) and also almost doubled all import fees and taxes. (Been needing to be done...and needing to be done again since inflation hit) American ports also need an overhaul dealing with its own railway system. They conglomerated causing a huge logistical mess before Biden got elected. However the increased production of American petroleum and gas is helping pay those increased fees.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

They also have to get it to port...then by ship to the US...then pay the docking fees. Which is where the whole thing falls apart. Brazil only has ports in the North....not the South (which has the most growing regions)

Why would they need to get it to the US? The US does not import soybeans. China is the largest buyer of beans in the world, and they are running the ports in Brazil

The largest port in Brazil is the Port of Santos, which is in the southern part of the country. The Port of Paranaguá is the 2nd largest and it is also in the southern part of the country.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

They also have to get it to port...then by ship to the US...then pay the docking fees. Which is where the whole thing falls apart. Brazil only has ports in the North....not the South (which has the most growing regions)
And the ocean ports are somewhat antiquated. A lot of goods are shipped by barge on the Pantanal River (The Northern beaches are nice though)

The US ports are getting an upgrade. (Something Biden did right as far as I can tell) and also almost doubled all import fees and taxes. (Been needing to be done...and needing to be done again since inflation hit) American ports also need an overhaul dealing with its own railway system. They conglomerated causing a huge logistical mess before Biden got elected. However the increased production of American petroleum and gas is helping pay those increased fees.

Also...what happens to the US grain farmers when China finds another source?

China Invests in Infrastructure in Brazil with an Eye on Food Security | Czapp

Chinese state-owned company participates in railway construction in Brazil for the first time. The goal is to improve food export routes. China also invests in the ports of Santos and Paranaguá.

www.czapp.com

China Invests in Infrastructure in Brazil with an Eye on Food Security​

 

[JohnDB]

 

[Harpy Eagle]

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what is a "permanent job loss" and how is it tracked?

 

[Harpy Eagle]

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Also....

 

[citygator]

Also....

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Same level as 2018. What is his point?

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Same level as 2018. What is his point?

Not really sure, but he sure does love his graphs.

I also noticed he had no response to me debunking his claims about where the ports in Brazil are located.

 

[citygator]

Not really sure, but he sure does love his graphs.

I also noticed he had no response to me debunking his claims about where the ports in Brazil are located.

I wouldn’t respond to you either. You seem to know a lot about commodities. Informative posts.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

I wouldn’t respond to you either. You seem to know a lot about commodities. Informative posts.

Just a very limited group of them, I do work in the Ag industry after all.

 

[FranklinRoosevelt_FTW]

The wins keep coming for Joe Biden. Record stock market is the latest following record jobs and a soft landing of inflation. I paid $2.49 for gas this morning. I mean what else can he do?

Dow continues rally, closes up 100 points after strong economic data, hopes for falling rates: Live updates

Wall Street received fresh economic data on Thursday that helped fuel hopes for a soft landing.

www.cnbc.com

Sorry about the last thread.. hit post before I got it set up.

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Yeah, I’m doing pretty well too. My stocks are up

You do realize most Americans don’t own stocks. People do well today despite high costs of living.. because they’re fortunate or lucky enough to have extra funds.

Some Biden democrats sound an awful lot like neoconservatives. Bragging about wealth. Sure there was a wealth transfer of trillions of dollars from the working class to the most wealthy class during the fake virus and the lockdowns that came with it.


A lot more Americans were successful under Trump. Gas was under 2 dollars a gallon when Trump was in office just four years ago. Now it’s $3.60 in my area.

I see some Democrats are among the most self centered beasts around. They’re sick in the head. Obviously these are people who don’t have Christian values. I see some of them bragging about owning a home when record numbers of Americans cannot afford a home.

Homes "unaffordable" in 99% of nation for average American

Home prices have jumped so much that Americans must pay a third of their income on housing, according to one study.

www.cbsnews.com

Biden gave us that ^

 

[sparky]

Whatever economic metric includes wall street , doesn't include the rest of us

~S~