I didn't say it would be a catastrophe, but I think it's hard to argue against the idea that both crime and poverty would increase in that scenario.
I haven't heard the "welfare is unconstitutional" argument made before. Usually people are more concerned with what they perceive to be unfair; freeloaders and such. I find it interesting.
When Welfare Reform took place in the 90s, it didn't do any of those things you are predicting. In fact, after it was passed, violent and gun crime decreased significantly. Which horse will run faster, the one you feed carrots to before you take the horse out, or the one with a carrot dangling in front of them?
Our greatest success of this country is that people are rewarded for their efforts. When you reward people who don't give a damn about succeeding, less people will try.
But you can't refute the fact that banning abortion would present an additional burden to society. You are anticipating that poor people who have undesired children would step up to the plate. And some would. But I'm not generous enough with my expectations of others to assume that such a change in earning power would be normal. In fact, I expect earnings to DECREASE, because many of these women are the sole parent and would need more time away from work to care for the new child.
I agree with what you are saying, but be honest with yourself here: Let's say abortion was illegal across the entire country. Do you think that women would be just as careless then as they are today? I don't think so. I think more women (and men) would take more precautions when having sex if they knew there was no way out of having a baby they really didn't want.
Again, you are counting upon the intelligence and caution of others when making this assumption. To some extent, I agree ... however ... I don't think it's wise to rely upon something so unreliable as the intelligence and caution of others.
Not to mention that birth control isn't 100%. Unless you just expect women who don't want children to be celibate. Which isn't remotely realistic.
If abortion were illegal, I don't expect everybody to be more responsible. Kids will be kids, irresponsible adults will be irresponsible adults. But I think it would greatly reduce the amount of people who have unexpected children. I think it would force some irresponsible people to be more responsible.
Regardless, I stand by my opinion that it's not my business and it's not the business of the government before a certain point. I don't see the practical purpose of leaving it to the states either; you are just telling people that if they want/need an abortion, they must go to a blue state. And cruelly punishing those who can't, for whatever reason. The backalley abortion stories didn't come about for no reason, even if you think the horror stories were exaggerated.