South Carolina Republican Primary Thread

[Vandalshandle]

And, thus Trump has reached as high as he is going to go in this race. His downhill slide starts tomorrow.

Yes indeed. Trump is done for. It's all over - AGAIN and AGAIN - and AGAIN. LOL!!

I wouldn't know about, "again", because this is my first prediction on the subject. Trump has peaked, and on Super Tuesday, he is going to start his slide. It won't be instant. It will be erosion. Most of his supporters are white kids who don't bother to vote, anyway.

More Republicans are voting than ever before.
Fewer Democrats are voting than ever before.
Combine these two items shows the next President will be Republican. Figure out why people are driving in droves to the polls shows that Trump will be that Republican.

...and yet, Trump is peaked, and republicans will lose the presidential race.

Better be thinking about an alibi. Ya'll can always go with "illegal immigrant voter fraud", but that is so 2008.....

 

[Meathead]

...and yet, Trump is peaked, and republicans will lose the presidential race.

Better be thinking about an alibi. Ya'll can always go with "illegal immigrant voter fraud", but that is so 2008.....

The one thing that never seems to peak are the mistaken predictions that Trump has peaked.

 

[Toro]

Trump iss an 80% favorite for Nevada, Cruz and Rubio...10% each. The train keeps chugging.

If Rubio was a great candidate, he'd be able to beat Trump now.

He hasn't.

Rubio has been battling it out with other establishment candidates. As the other establishment candidates drop out, most of their votes will go to Rubio.

Bush dropping out helps Rubio immensely. Had he stayed in the race into March, it probably would have damaged Rubio permanently. Now there will be pressure on Kasich to drop out as well. Kasich may stay in until Super Tuesday when a lot of midwest states are in play. But there will be a lot of pressure on him to exit.

Many candidates, particularly establishment candidates, helps Trump the most. That's why there will be pressure on Kasich to go. Most of the establishment votes won't go to Trump. He'll get some, but most will go elsewhere.

In a straight-up, head-to-head vote, Rubio will beat Trump (as would Cruz). But if all three are in the race, it would probably come down to the convention. Trump will have the most delegates. He probably won't have enough, though.

For Cruz, the calculation would be that if it comes down to a three-way fight, if he finishes above Rubio in delegates, he could win at the convention. But if he finishes third, he has no chance. So Cruz doesn't have to beat Trump, but he does have to beat Rubio. SC was bad for him. It's a conservative state and he was well-organized but still finished third. If he finishes third in most states on March 1 then March 15, what does he do after that? I have no idea, TBH. The most obvious thing is that he would drop out, but he might not.

Trump will win Nevada. He will probably win most of the states on March 1. But what matters are delegates. All the states on March 1 are proportional states. Two-thirds of the delegates will be wrapped up by Super Tuesday. If it's a three-way race past then, it's probably going to the convention.

 

[TemplarKormac]

why do republicans have fewer delegates to win than democrats have to win?

Why do you guys need to flip coins and play poker to dole your delegates out? I'm interested how that works out.

 

[JoeB131]

For Cruz, the calculation would be that if it comes down to a three-way fight, if he finishes above Rubio in delegates, he could win at the convention. But if he finishes third, he has no chance. So Cruz doesn't have to beat Trump, but he does have to beat Rubio. SC was bad for him. It's a conservative state and he was well-organized but still finished third. If he finishes third in most states on March 1 then March 15, what does he do after that? I have no idea, TBH. The most obvious thing is that he would drop out, but he might not.

Trump will win Nevada. He will probably win most of the states on March 1. But what matters are delegates. All the states on March 1 are proportional states. Two-thirds of the delegates will be wrapped up by Super Tuesday. If it's a three-way race past then, it's probably going to the convention.

I love watching you establishment types try to rationalize how you haven't completely lost control of your own party.

Cruz finished second, BTW. So you have three contests, where Sheldon Adelson's boy Rubio finished Third, Fifth and Third, and you guys are going to claim, this is your Great Brown (not really) Hope who checks off all the boxes.

If Cruz were to drop out, most of his support would probably go to Trump. the more Trump smells like a winner to the right, the more popular he will get.

 

[Toro]

Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War

 

[Toro]

If Cruz were to drop out, most of his support would probably go to Trump.

Polls suggest otherwise.

Head-to-Head, Trump Trails Cruz, Rubio Badly

Rubio was second.

http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/sc/Rep

It's basically a tie. But whether he won by 1000 votes or lost by 1000 points is besides the point. The point is that he's way ahead of the other establishment candidates and outperforming expectations while challenging Cruz.

 

[eagle1462010]

For Cruz, the calculation would be that if it comes down to a three-way fight, if he finishes above Rubio in delegates, he could win at the convention. But if he finishes third, he has no chance. So Cruz doesn't have to beat Trump, but he does have to beat Rubio. SC was bad for him. It's a conservative state and he was well-organized but still finished third. If he finishes third in most states on March 1 then March 15, what does he do after that? I have no idea, TBH. The most obvious thing is that he would drop out, but he might not.

Trump will win Nevada. He will probably win most of the states on March 1. But what matters are delegates. All the states on March 1 are proportional states. Two-thirds of the delegates will be wrapped up by Super Tuesday. If it's a three-way race past then, it's probably going to the convention.

I love watching you establishment types try to rationalize how you haven't completely lost control of your own party.

Cruz finished second, BTW. So you have three contests, where Sheldon Adelson's boy Rubio finished Third, Fifth and Third, and you guys are going to claim, this is your Great Brown (not really) Hope who checks off all the boxes.

If Cruz were to drop out, most of his support would probably go to Trump. the more Trump smells like a winner to the right, the more popular he will get.

Look in the mirror of your candidates, take two doses of reality and call me in the morning.................

 

[Toro]

Trump's support is a mile-deep and a yard wide. (OK, a first-down wide.) He has to be able to appeal to more than his core of passionate supporters.

In SC, the undecideds broke very much against Trump.

johnny dollar on Twitter

This explains Rubio's surge the last few days in SC, and why he outperformed expectations.

If Trump is to win this, he has to do better than that.

 

[Toro]

Trump also underperformed amongst late-deciders in NH and IA.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/02/09/us/elections/new-hampshire-republican-poll.html?_r=0
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/02/01/us/elections/iowa-republican-poll.html

Most of Trump's support comes from people who made up their mind a long time ago, and he is trailing the other candidates amongst voters who were undecided.

 

[AvgGuyIA]

And, thus Trump has reached as high as he is going to go in this race. His downhill slide starts tomorrow.

Yes indeed. Trump is done for. It's all over - AGAIN and AGAIN - and AGAIN. LOL!!

I wouldn't know about, "again", because this is my first prediction on the subject. Trump has peaked, and on Super Tuesday, he is going to start his slide. It won't be instant. It will be erosion. Most of his supporters are white kids who don't bother to vote, anyway.

More Republicans are voting than ever before.
Fewer Democrats are voting than ever before.
Combine these two items shows the next President will be Republican. Figure out why people are driving in droves to the polls shows that Trump will be that Republican.

...and yet, Trump is peaked, and republicans will lose the presidential race.

Better be thinking about an alibi. Ya'll can always go with "illegal immigrant voter fraud", but that is so 2008.....

If democrats win and establish majorities on the court, will they get rid of the 2nd amendment? Will they outlaw all guns once and for all? Will our taxes raise to 90%. Will there be single payer by Court edict?

 

[Mad Scientist]

Trumps win in S.C. is yet another reason why he can't win in the General Election.

Karl Rove said so.

 

[xband]

Trump won by a landslide in SouthK and Cruz put an olive wreath on Trump's head during his speech after the results were announced..

 

[AvgGuyIA]

why do republicans have fewer delegates to win than democrats have to win?

Democrats have more donators to pay off politically than republicans.

 

[JoeB131]

Look in the mirror of your candidates, take two doses of reality and call me in the morning.................

again, guy, I'm a republican who just wants to take back his party from the Corporate Assholes and the Religious Crazies...

This is not going to be the year that happens.

 

[dani67]

it is fact
isnt it?

1: trump
2: rubio
3: cruz

Congrats to Dani...an Iranian starting a the tracking thread for an US primary election! The wonders of the Internet age! Now if we can just get him to run for Ayatollah.........yo.

breaking news : deltex1 endorses dani67

 

[JoeB131]

If democrats win and establish majorities on the court, will they get rid of the 2nd amendment? Will they outlaw all guns once and for all? Will our taxes raise to 90%. Will there be single payer by Court edict?

Well- Um.

No, they won't get rid of the second Amendment. They may rediscover that part about "Well-regulated Militias" and realize that Joker Holmes and the San Bernadino Shooter don't constitute one of those.

 

[eagle1462010]

Look in the mirror of your candidates, take two doses of reality and call me in the morning.................

again, guy, I'm a republican who just wants to take back his party from the Corporate Assholes and the Religious Crazies...

This is not going to be the year that happens.

Yet you have a habit of posting the other sides talking points.......

 

[eagle1462010]

it is fact
isnt it?

1: trump
2: rubio
3: cruz

Congrats to Dani...an Iranian starting a the tracking thread for an US primary election! The wonders of the Internet age! Now if we can just get him to run for Ayatollah.........yo.

breaking news : deltex1 endorses dani67

Get a movement to overthrow your radical leaders and I'll endorse you..........don't see that happening....

 

[deltex1]

it is fact
isnt it?

1: trump
2: rubio
3: cruz

Congrats to Dani...an Iranian starting a the tracking thread for an US primary election! The wonders of the Internet age! Now if we can just get him to run for Ayatollah.........yo.

breaking news : deltex1 endorses dani67

Is there anything similar to USMB in Iran...where Iranians can openly criticize political/religious leaders? ......or where foreigners can join in ....as you are free to comment on US leaders?