SOmeone Tell the Air Force this is same as doing nothing

[Daryl Hunt]

Ok. Simple "raise the bet" scenario. China&Russia alliance decided to retake Taiwan. Russia said, that any (nuclear or conventional) attack against China's forces will be equal to attack against Russia, and means immediate nuclear retaliation.
Should the USA try to fight them?

First, China has to make sure the US is busy somewhere else. Who knows, they might trigger a US V NK war to get the US assets committed away from Taiwan. But if they don't, there are enough US resources to reduce the coastline of China back before the industrial age. And since that is where China's resources are, they will always think twice, 3 times and more doing it. And it won't be Nuclear Weapons unless the Chinese uses them first. The US has the Air power and Naval power to cripple China for many, many years in a matter of a few days. Add to the fact, that it's going to take many days or weeks for the Chinese to amass an invasion force. China lacks the type of boats that would be used so they would impress civilian boats into service. The Germans had the same problem invading England. During the buildup, expect the US Navy to preposition their ships and for the AF to keep their assets in the air 24/7.

And it won't matter if the Chinese attack Guam. The relocation plan is to disperse the bombers and tankers to make it much more difficult to take them out. And then there are the large number of Bombers and Tankers that launch stateside which they can nothing about.

Just not going to happen.

 

[Mushroom]

First, China has to make sure the US is busy somewhere else. Who knows, they might trigger a US V NK war to get the US assets committed away from Taiwan.

That is a guaranteed way to loose one of their last major allies. Because I can guarantee that if North Korea was stupid enough to attack again, the US and other allies this time would not stop until the entire peninsula was reunified under South Korean rule.

That would harm China, as both a unified Korea would be serious competition in global trade, as well as it would remove their main "attack dog" when it comes to international exposure. For the last decade or so, China has been presenting itself as the "one nation that can keep North Korea in check". If North Korea was to start another war, all of that would evaporate.

And expect a lot of other nations jump into that conflict also.

Japan only recognizes South Korea as the "legitimate government", so I have no doubt if asked they would join South Korea.

The Philippines participated in the Korean War, and have been trying to bring the nations even closer. So expect them to join in.

The UK have been important strategic partners since the country was founded, and frequently conducts military exercises together, so they also would likely jump in.

The EU is the largest trading partner of South Korea, both import and export. 45% of EU foreign trade goes to South Korea. So expect a great many of the EU nations to join in (including France, Greece, and Germany).

No, reigniting the Korean War would be the last thing China would want. That would guarantee a great many nations would then have a military presence in the area, which might otherwise sit out a "China-Taiwan War". And without China to intervene in a new Korean Conflict and a much larger US military presence in terms of ability to respond, that conflict would be very short.

It must be remembered that North Korea attacked last time in July 1950, pushing South Korean and US forces all the way to the tip of the peninsula at Pusan. And 2 months later (September) they broke out and ran all over North Korean forces, a month later (October) ending all the way up at the Chinese border. This time they would not make the mistake of inviting in a Chinese Intervention, probably stating their intent to stop say 25 miles from the border and allowing no ground forces to move north farther than that (and probably no air forces closer than 10 miles).

And it took the North Korean - Chinese forces 2 months to battle back to the original border. Seoul was attacked again, and after a 2 year stalemate the UN forces were once again pushing hard back into North Korea when the armistice was called. That is why the border still rests North of the original one. China had already "shot it's wad", and the North was in danger of being rolled up all over again.

Next time, it is guaranteed that the offensive will not stop until the entire country is unified. And with the actions of the last 60+ years, do not expect much support for this from the North Korean population. And after reunification? Well, expect at least 1-3 new US bases on the Peninsula. I would expect 2, likely a joint Army-Air Force one, and the other a Navy Base with a large Marine contingent. Yonpo Army Airfield and Wonsan Naval Base are likely candidates for permanent South Korean - US bases.

That would be the absolutely last thing that China would want to see.

 

[Daryl Hunt]

First, China has to make sure the US is busy somewhere else. Who knows, they might trigger a US V NK war to get the US assets committed away from Taiwan.

That is a guaranteed way to loose one of their last major allies. Because I can guarantee that if North Korea was stupid enough to attack again, the US and other allies this time would not stop until the entire peninsula was reunified under South Korean rule.

That would harm China, as both a unified Korea would be serious competition in global trade, as well as it would remove their main "attack dog" when it comes to international exposure. For the last decade or so, China has been presenting itself as the "one nation that can keep North Korea in check". If North Korea was to start another war, all of that would evaporate.

And expect a lot of other nations jump into that conflict also.

Japan only recognizes South Korea as the "legitimate government", so I have no doubt if asked they would join South Korea.

The Philippines participated in the Korean War, and have been trying to bring the nations even closer. So expect them to join in.

The UK have been important strategic partners since the country was founded, and frequently conducts military exercises together, so they also would likely jump in.

The EU is the largest trading partner of South Korea, both import and export. 45% of EU foreign trade goes to South Korea. So expect a great many of the EU nations to join in (including France, Greece, and Germany).

No, reigniting the Korean War would be the last thing China would want. That would guarantee a great many nations would then have a military presence in the area, which might otherwise sit out a "China-Taiwan War". And without China to intervene in a new Korean Conflict and a much larger US military presence in terms of ability to respond, that conflict would be very short.

It must be remembered that North Korea attacked last time in July 1950, pushing South Korean and US forces all the way to the tip of the peninsula at Pusan. And 2 months later (September) they broke out and ran all over North Korean forces, a month later (October) ending all the way up at the Chinese border. This time they would not make the mistake of inviting in a Chinese Intervention, probably stating their intent to stop say 25 miles from the border and allowing no ground forces to move north farther than that (and probably no air forces closer than 10 miles).

And it took the North Korean - Chinese forces 2 months to battle back to the original border. Seoul was attacked again, and after a 2 year stalemate the UN forces were once again pushing hard back into North Korea when the armistice was called. That is why the border still rests North of the original one. China had already "shot it's wad", and the North was in danger of being rolled up all over again.

Next time, it is guaranteed that the offensive will not stop until the entire country is unified. And with the actions of the last 60+ years, do not expect much support for this from the North Korean population. And after reunification? Well, expect at least 1-3 new US bases on the Peninsula. I would expect 2, likely a joint Army-Air Force one, and the other a Navy Base with a large Marine contingent. Yonpo Army Airfield and Wonsan Naval Base are likely candidates for permanent South Korean - US bases.

That would be the absolutely last thing that China would want to see.

If it came to losing NK or gaining Taiwan, it might be tough call.

 

[Silver Cat]

The question was not "How exactly China could attack Taiwan?". The question (almost rhetoric) was "Should we start nuclear war to defend Taiwan (Japan, Hawaii, Alaska, Florida)? "

 

[Daryl Hunt]

The question was not "How exactly China could attack Taiwan?". The question (almost rhetoric) was "Should we start nuclear war to defend Taiwan (Japan, Hawaii, Alaska, Florida)? "

Use your brain. We have enough firepower in the region to bury a large portion of the Chinese Industrial complex without resorting to Nukes of any kind. China knows this, Taiwan knows this, Russia knows this. But you don't yet you keep jabbering on. Your question is as stupid as you are.

 

[Silver Cat]

The question was not "How exactly China could attack Taiwan?". The question (almost rhetoric) was "Should we start nuclear war to defend Taiwan (Japan, Hawaii, Alaska, Florida)? "

Use your brain. We have enough firepower in the region to bury a large portion of the Chinese Industrial complex without resorting to Nukes of any kind. China knows this, Taiwan knows this, Russia knows this. But you don't yet you keep jabbering on. Your question is as stupid as you are.

They know, that they will lose in a conventional war. That's why they raise bets to nuclear war. So, there is no option "conventional war". There are only two options - "surrender" or "start a nuclear war."

 

[Mushroom]

They know, that they will lose in a conventional war. That's why they raise bets to nuclear war. So, there is no option "conventional war". There are only two options - "surrender" or "start a nuclear war."

The moment China started a nuclear war, they would become a pariah nation and most countries in the world would declare war on them. They know this, and the end result would be that the nation would no longer exist.

 

[Daryl Hunt]

The question was not "How exactly China could attack Taiwan?". The question (almost rhetoric) was "Should we start nuclear war to defend Taiwan (Japan, Hawaii, Alaska, Florida)? "

Use your brain. We have enough firepower in the region to bury a large portion of the Chinese Industrial complex without resorting to Nukes of any kind. China knows this, Taiwan knows this, Russia knows this. But you don't yet you keep jabbering on. Your question is as stupid as you are.

They know, that they will lose in a conventional war. That's why they raise bets to nuclear war. So, there is no option "conventional war". There are only two options - "surrender" or "start a nuclear war."

And you believe that they could win a Nuclear one? You need to stop smoking whatever you are smoking.

 

[Mushroom]

And you believe that they could win a Nuclear one? You need to stop smoking whatever you are smoking.

In reality, nobody "wins" a nuclear war. But I have no question that China would loose if they started one. In fact, a great many nations that might otherwise sit on the fence like India, Pakistan, Japan, France, even Israel and Russia might very well jump in. Just so they can punish the nation that dares to let the genie out of the bottle again.

In fact, much like if North Korea was ever foolish enough to attack South Korea again China might ultimately see the same fate if they "went nuclear". With the CCP blasted into oblivion conventionally, and the ROC put back in charge.

 

[Silver Cat]

The question was not "How exactly China could attack Taiwan?". The question (almost rhetoric) was "Should we start nuclear war to defend Taiwan (Japan, Hawaii, Alaska, Florida)? "

Use your brain. We have enough firepower in the region to bury a large portion of the Chinese Industrial complex without resorting to Nukes of any kind. China knows this, Taiwan knows this, Russia knows this. But you don't yet you keep jabbering on. Your question is as stupid as you are.

They know, that they will lose in a conventional war. That's why they raise bets to nuclear war. So, there is no option "conventional war". There are only two options - "surrender" or "start a nuclear war."

And you believe that they could win a Nuclear one? You need to stop smoking whatever you are smoking.

If one side can loose a nuclear war, then another can win the one.

 

[Silver Cat]

And you believe that they could win a Nuclear one? You need to stop smoking whatever you are smoking.

In reality, nobody "wins" a nuclear war. But I have no question that China would loose if they started one. In fact, a great many nations that might otherwise sit on the fence like India, Pakistan, Japan, France, even Israel and Russia might very well jump in. Just so they can punish the nation that dares to let the genie out of the bottle again.

You see, Russia, Israel, France don't suffer from nucleophobia. For them nuclear weapon is not a sort of supernatural force like the genie in a bottle. So Russia can join China (if they will see a profit).

 

[Daryl Hunt]

The question was not "How exactly China could attack Taiwan?". The question (almost rhetoric) was "Should we start nuclear war to defend Taiwan (Japan, Hawaii, Alaska, Florida)? "

Use your brain. We have enough firepower in the region to bury a large portion of the Chinese Industrial complex without resorting to Nukes of any kind. China knows this, Taiwan knows this, Russia knows this. But you don't yet you keep jabbering on. Your question is as stupid as you are.

They know, that they will lose in a conventional war. That's why they raise bets to nuclear war. So, there is no option "conventional war". There are only two options - "surrender" or "start a nuclear war."

And you believe that they could win a Nuclear one? You need to stop smoking whatever you are smoking.

If one side can loose a nuclear war, then another can win the one.

No one "Wins" in a nuclear war. No one. Setting off 12 Nuclear Weapons of any size other than the baby ones has dramatic affect. Let's say that NK sets off 8 in the Pacific Theater. And the US responds with 8 of it's own. You think the weather changes that are present today screwing things up won't affect Seattle? It will. You set off something equivilent to Mt. St. Helens and that screwed with the weather even in Moscow. We are more than 1000 miles from St. Helens and yet we have our air quality degraded for months. If you consider using Nuclear Weapons you might as well be slinging major Volcanic Eruptions at each other.

 

[Daryl Hunt]

And you believe that they could win a Nuclear one? You need to stop smoking whatever you are smoking.

In reality, nobody "wins" a nuclear war. But I have no question that China would loose if they started one. In fact, a great many nations that might otherwise sit on the fence like India, Pakistan, Japan, France, even Israel and Russia might very well jump in. Just so they can punish the nation that dares to let the genie out of the bottle again.

You see, Russia, Israel, France don't suffer from nucleophobia. For them nuclear weapon is not a sort of supernatural force like the genie in a bottle. So Russia can join China (if they will see a profit).

And they can wreck their own food supply for the next Generation or so.

 

[Mushroom]

If one side can loose a nuclear war, then another can win the one.

You were in a back alley fight last week.

Yes, you killed the other guy. But your wrists are broken, one of your eyes was gouged out of the socket and the other was seriously damaged giving you a permanent 50% loss of vision. Your left kneecap was busted so you will never move again at more than a hobble. Ribs sprung and separated, the serious concussion may have caused brain damage, and you have had PTSD flashbacks since then which have been leaving you a whimpering mess.

Now, did you really win that fight?

You see, Russia, Israel, France don't suffer from nucleophobia. For them nuclear weapon is not a sort of supernatural force like the genie in a bottle. So Russia can join China (if they will see a profit).

Hell, even to this day Israel will not even admit it has one!

And no, Russia will not join China if it is the first country to launch a nuke. Sorry, it is not some "enemy of my enemy is my friend" nonsense. In fact, the best way to profit would be to join the alliance against the nation that used nukes first.

 

[Silver Cat]

If one side can loose a nuclear war, then another can win the one.

You were in a back alley fight last week.

Yes, you killed the other guy. But your wrists are broken, one of your eyes was gouged out of the socket and the other was seriously damaged giving you a permanent 50% loss of vision. Your left kneecap was busted so you will never move again at more than a hobble. Ribs sprung and separated, the serious concussion may have caused brain damage, and you have had PTSD flashbacks since then which have been leaving you a whimpering mess.

Now, did you really win that fight?

Yes, sure.

You see, Russia, Israel, France don't suffer from nucleophobia. For them nuclear weapon is not a sort of supernatural force like the genie in a bottle. So Russia can join China (if they will see a profit).

Hell, even to this day Israel will not even admit it has one!

And no, Russia will not join China if it is the first country to launch a nuke. Sorry, it is not some "enemy of my enemy is my friend" nonsense. In fact, the best way to profit would be to join the alliance against the nation that used nukes first.

It is a complicated question. Russia is unpredictable, you know. Anyway Russians don't think or even declare, that the first usage of nukes is "bad" or "good" by itself. But simplest models are "SCO is good, NATO is bad" and "Yesterday was too early, tomorrow will be too late, we have to attack together - right now".

 

[Daryl Hunt]

If one side can loose a nuclear war, then another can win the one.

You were in a back alley fight last week.

Yes, you killed the other guy. But your wrists are broken, one of your eyes was gouged out of the socket and the other was seriously damaged giving you a permanent 50% loss of vision. Your left kneecap was busted so you will never move again at more than a hobble. Ribs sprung and separated, the serious concussion may have caused brain damage, and you have had PTSD flashbacks since then which have been leaving you a whimpering mess.

Now, did you really win that fight?

Yes, sure.

You see, Russia, Israel, France don't suffer from nucleophobia. For them nuclear weapon is not a sort of supernatural force like the genie in a bottle. So Russia can join China (if they will see a profit).

Hell, even to this day Israel will not even admit it has one!

And no, Russia will not join China if it is the first country to launch a nuke. Sorry, it is not some "enemy of my enemy is my friend" nonsense. In fact, the best way to profit would be to join the alliance against the nation that used nukes first.

It is a complicated question. Russia is unpredictable, you know. Anyway Russians don't think or even declare, that the first usage of nukes is "bad" or "good" by itself. But simplest models are "SCO is good, NATO is bad" and "Yesterday was too early, tomorrow will be too late, we have to attack together - right now".

Saber Rattling happens all the time. Luckily, the Military on both sides don't rattle sabers.

 

[Mushroom]

Yes, sure.

Nobody "wins" a nuclear war. One side simply looses less than the other.

 

[Daryl Hunt]

Yes, sure.

Nobody "wins" a nuclear war. One side simply looses less than the other.

We practiced the aftermath. Trust me, if a Nuclear war happens, I want the first warhead to drop right directly on my punkin head.

 

[westwall]

According to Defense News, Air Force units will now head to the hills at the first sign of war, dispersing from their massive bases to local airports, isolated airstrips, any place that can support airplanes. The idea is to use those large bases not to concentrate air power but as a hub to feed dispersed air power, maintaining a steady flow of fuel, ammunition, and food to small detachments of fighters and other warplanes hiding at airfields adversaries may not even know about. U.S. Air Force Air Bases | Why Big Air Bases Are a Big Liability
The first sign of war will be these giant Airbases all burning at once. Speed of missiles these days fired from subs this must have Chinese laughing their ass off

from what I've read, though it is true that our enemies can strike us so quickly we would NOT be able to prevent mass destruction and death......AFTER the US was incinerated by (russia, china, n korea, iran....?)

our remaining forces would STILL be able to destroy the rest of the planet.

MAD.....


The chinese would not have long to laugh

The Chinese are building infrastructure to save 10% of their population from a nuclear war.

That gives them a population of 150,000,000 compared to how many in the west survive....

In other words, the Chinese win. And because they plan long term, the 100 years it takes for them to conquer the remains of the world is A-OK with them.

 

[Daryl Hunt]

According to Defense News, Air Force units will now head to the hills at the first sign of war, dispersing from their massive bases to local airports, isolated airstrips, any place that can support airplanes. The idea is to use those large bases not to concentrate air power but as a hub to feed dispersed air power, maintaining a steady flow of fuel, ammunition, and food to small detachments of fighters and other warplanes hiding at airfields adversaries may not even know about. U.S. Air Force Air Bases | Why Big Air Bases Are a Big Liability
The first sign of war will be these giant Airbases all burning at once. Speed of missiles these days fired from subs this must have Chinese laughing their ass off

from what I've read, though it is true that our enemies can strike us so quickly we would NOT be able to prevent mass destruction and death......AFTER the US was incinerated by (russia, china, n korea, iran....?)

our remaining forces would STILL be able to destroy the rest of the planet.

MAD.....


The chinese would not have long to laugh

The Chinese are building infrastructure to save 10% of their population from a nuclear war.

That gives them a population of 150,000,000 compared to how many in the west survive....

In other words, the Chinese win. And because they plan long term, the 100 years it takes for them to conquer the remains of the world is A-OK with them.

The Population of China is only(Only?) 1.3 billion. If they save 10% that's 1.3 million not 150 million. The US will save 85% of it's population leaving just under 278 million. China will be blown right back into the iron age while the much of the Industry in the US can be rebuilt. China has most of it's industry on the coast which it will completely lose while the US has it's industry spread out. Even Russia will fare much better than China.