So much for the rebound...

[Oldandtired]

Yeah...something told me that my discussing basic economics would be the end of the left adding to this debate.

Face it...all you got are talking points. Once logic and facts are presented, you run like George Castanza from a kitchen fire.

 

[California Girl]

Missed this part?

But there appears little risk a reversal in housing would pull the economy back into recession. Orders to U.S. factories posted a big gain in November, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. That data was the latest evidence of a strong turnaround in manufacturing as industries from China to Europe flash recovery signs.

Taken together, the reports show that, while housing remains vulnerable, makers of steel, computers and chemicals are mounting a surprisingly robust rebound.

Actually, RW, I didn't miss that. I read the article. I also remember some statements that the stimulus would allow us to avoid the double digit unemployment and get the banks back to a point to where they could lend money for housing, etc. Up to this point, I don't see either of those things happening. So I don't put a lot of stock in the fortune tellers out there that seem to have a looking glass into the future. But that's just me.

But you have no problem when they predict a double dip downturn...

Praying for the economy to fail are we?

You do make me laugh. I'm sure that all the non-believers in St Barack are praying for a double dip - and all the problems that brings - just so we can say 'told ya so'. That's a leftist tactic, not a rightist tactic.

 

[sboyle24]

Economic theory has never been concrete and never will be. Yes, it is believed that recession and growth come in cycles. There are other theories on the matter as well. I believe if you take a closer look at the statements, Obama and his economic roster planned to used the stimulus to accelerate the depression, not end it. Ending it is impossible, according to economic theory. The stimulus money should have gone to companies inventing technology because inventions are one of the largest influences on spending.

The important figures to watch are not the housing market numbers, or the percent change in the housing marker numbers, but the, so to speak, "acceleration" of the change in housing numbers, as that depicts the attitude of the market.

 

[Sinatra]

To be fair, the should be a month-to-month decline in housing as we are entering the slow months of winter housing sales. The year-to-year sales comparison actually increased by a rather large amount.

That being said, yes, the housing market remains very weak - and open to another spiral if the foreclosure mess does not stabalize. This past week saw the single greatest number of weekly foreclosures in the history of my state.

If jobs don't come back by the start of the second quarter of 2010, housing could get very ugly once again.

God I hope not - I am sitting on quite a bit of inventory waiting for the market to stabilize a bit more before putting some of those properties on the market...

 

[Sinatra]

Economic theory has never been concrete and never will be. Yes, it is believed that recession and growth come in cycles. There are other theories on the matter as well. I believe if you take a closer look at the statements, Obama and his economic roster planned to used the stimulus to accelerate the depression, not end it. Ending it is impossible, according to economic theory. The stimulus money should have gone to companies inventing technology because inventions are one of the largest influences on spending.

The important figures to watch are not the housing market numbers, or the percent change in the housing marker numbers, but the, so to speak, "acceleration" of the change in housing numbers, as that depicts the attitude of the market.

Could you expand on that - sounds interesting!

 

[Annie]

Actually, RW, I didn't miss that. I read the article. I also remember some statements that the stimulus would allow us to avoid the double digit unemployment and get the banks back to a point to where they could lend money for housing, etc. Up to this point, I don't see either of those things happening. So I don't put a lot of stock in the fortune tellers out there that seem to have a looking glass into the future. But that's just me.

But you have no problem when they predict a double dip downturn...

Praying for the economy to fail are we?

Nope...simply praying that those blinded by ideology such as yourself will realize that the rebound is inevitable and can only be slowed down by things like a stimulus.

Even if the stimulus DID work, we will then have the issue of paying the money back.....so it would be a win/lose situation....and that is at BEST.

Think about it.

Right on. Notice the auto sales now?

 

[sboyle24]

The change, in the change of the market. I apologize for my error above, it should just say acceleration of the market with no change there. As to why that is important? If you've ever managed to stay awake for a college economics course (I know I couldn't, Engineer here) you might have seen a graph depicting the cycles (recession, trough, recovery, peak). The important figure to pay attention to in order to understand where one is at in these cycles is the second derivative of the graph, or acceleration. For example, if the housing market is still decreasing, but at a decreasing rate (meaning each time the decrease is less) i may conclude that the recession is nearing an end because the trend is positive. A very mathematical explanation I know. Don't hate me, it's just how I think.

 

[Sinatra]

The change, in the change of the market. I apologize for my error above, it should just say acceleration of the market with no change there. As to why that is important? If you've ever managed to stay awake for a college economics course (I know I couldn't, Engineer here) you might have seen a graph depicting the cycles (recession, trough, recovery, peak). The important figure to pay attention to in order to understand where one is at in these cycles is the second derivative of the graph, or acceleration. For example, if the housing market is still decreasing, but at a decreasing rate (meaning each time the decrease is less) i may conclude that the recession is nearing an end because the trend is positive. A very mathematical explanation I know. Don't hate me, it's just how I think.

View attachment 9141

I actually was assigned to teach an entry-level economics course at a JC when I first started out in my instructor days. "Winging it" would be an understatement for that experience!

I see your point - the rate of decline lessens so the trend is positive, and for the most part I would agree. There have been many green shoots over the last handful of months pointing to a stabilizing economy.

My fear is that all of the government intervention, and resulting debt burden, will force the head of this recovery back down from where it would otherwise be - and the legs upon which it stands will be far less stable and thus prone to further decline in the near term. I listened to an economist this past weekend explaining how 8% unemployment will be the norm for the next decade and Americans must simply come to terms with that - that in effect, we will be much more like western Europe in the growth and decline of our economy than we have were during much of the 20th Century.

If so, that sucks, because Western Europe often had unemployment rates much higher than our own, and many of those nations suffer under a debt ration even worse than our own...

 

[sboyle24]

The change, in the change of the market. I apologize for my error above, it should just say acceleration of the market with no change there. As to why that is important? If you've ever managed to stay awake for a college economics course (I know I couldn't, Engineer here) you might have seen a graph depicting the cycles (recession, trough, recovery, peak). The important figure to pay attention to in order to understand where one is at in these cycles is the second derivative of the graph, or acceleration. For example, if the housing market is still decreasing, but at a decreasing rate (meaning each time the decrease is less) i may conclude that the recession is nearing an end because the trend is positive. A very mathematical explanation I know. Don't hate me, it's just how I think.

View attachment 9141

I actually was assigned to teach an entry-level economics course at a JC when I first started out in my instructor days. "Winging it" would be an understatement for that experience!

I see your point - the rate of decline lessens so the trend is positive, and for the most part I would agree. There have been many green shoots over the last handful of months pointing to a stabilizing economy.

My fear is that all of the government intervention, and resulting debt burden, will force the head of this recovery back down from where it would otherwise be - and the legs upon which it stands will be far less stable and thus prone to further decline in the near term. I listened to an economist this past weekend explaining how 8% unemployment will be the norm for the next decade and Americans must simply come to terms with that - that in effect, we will be much more like western Europe in the growth and decline of our economy than we have were during much of the 20th Century.

If so, that sucks, because Western Europe often had unemployment rates much higher than our own, and many of those nations suffer under a debt ration even worse than our own...

8%?! Well that seems pretty high! An interesting perspective. I do recall that economics can have many different theories about it. Hopefully that man's belief is just another theory because living at 8% unemployment might drive me to drink. College loans are hard enough to pay off.

As far as the stimulus dragging the economy down, I'm not entirely sure what you mean. I haven't done too much research on the stimulus, could you explain? I thought that the idea of the stimulus was to shorten the length of the recession and depression but if it has a few hidden cons i'd surely like to know.

 

[Sinatra]

The change, in the change of the market. I apologize for my error above, it should just say acceleration of the market with no change there. As to why that is important? If you've ever managed to stay awake for a college economics course (I know I couldn't, Engineer here) you might have seen a graph depicting the cycles (recession, trough, recovery, peak). The important figure to pay attention to in order to understand where one is at in these cycles is the second derivative of the graph, or acceleration. For example, if the housing market is still decreasing, but at a decreasing rate (meaning each time the decrease is less) i may conclude that the recession is nearing an end because the trend is positive. A very mathematical explanation I know. Don't hate me, it's just how I think.

View attachment 9141

I actually was assigned to teach an entry-level economics course at a JC when I first started out in my instructor days. "Winging it" would be an understatement for that experience!

I see your point - the rate of decline lessens so the trend is positive, and for the most part I would agree. There have been many green shoots over the last handful of months pointing to a stabilizing economy.

My fear is that all of the government intervention, and resulting debt burden, will force the head of this recovery back down from where it would otherwise be - and the legs upon which it stands will be far less stable and thus prone to further decline in the near term. I listened to an economist this past weekend explaining how 8% unemployment will be the norm for the next decade and Americans must simply come to terms with that - that in effect, we will be much more like western Europe in the growth and decline of our economy than we have were during much of the 20th Century.

If so, that sucks, because Western Europe often had unemployment rates much higher than our own, and many of those nations suffer under a debt ration even worse than our own...

8%?! Well that seems pretty high! An interesting perspective. I do recall that economics can have many different theories about it. Hopefully that man's belief is just another theory because living at 8% unemployment might drive me to drink. College loans are hard enough to pay off.

As far as the stimulus dragging the economy down, I'm not entirely sure what you mean. I haven't done too much research on the stimulus, could you explain? I thought that the idea of the stimulus was to shorten the length of the recession and depression but if it has a few hidden cons i'd surely like to know.

It is the debt burden that will drive down the recovery. Dealing with the debt will require increases in interest rates, and quite-possible resulting increases in inflation - both of which can stifle overall economic growth.

The stimulus has also expanded the federal government - an expansion that will grow far more with the Obamacare plan that will initiate various layers of regulatory bodies to oversee its implimentation - to say nothing of the resulting tax increase burden. The more money that goes to government, the less money that goes to private enterprise - the lifeblood of the free market economy and the single greatest engine for job creation. It is a primary reason why the western European economies often lagged behind our own.

And on and on....

 

[Truthmatters]

That is just one indicator.

read the others that are up in the article.


The nation's factories, however, are faring much better. The Commerce Department orders rose by 1.1 percent in November, more than double the 0.5 percent increase economists had forecast. The increases were widespread with the exception of autos and aircraft, which posted declines.

The Institute of Supply Management had reported Monday that its key gauge of U.S. factory activity showed manufacturing was expanding in December at the fastest pace in more than three years.

After 20 months of a downtuurn in production, it is basic economics that there will be an increase....as obsolescence comes into play...and so demand for product will increase.

For example......in a recession you will not buy new shoes....but after 20 moinths, you NEED to buy new shoes.

That is why ALL recessions recover on their own. Stimulus, tax cuts, etc are simply policies designed to ease the pain in the meantime......butoinly the gullible and the naive truly believe that Bush's tax cuts, Reagans tax cuts, and Obama's stimulus helped the economy.

The difference? Tax cuts cost us nothing......Stimulus costs us billions in interest...not to mention the principal.

List of recessions in the United States - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I get it fromm the historical record of recessions in the US.

 

[Annie]

But you have no problem when they predict a double dip downturn...

Praying for the economy to fail are we?

Nope...simply praying that those blinded by ideology such as yourself will realize that the rebound is inevitable and can only be slowed down by things like a stimulus.

Even if the stimulus DID work, we will then have the issue of paying the money back.....so it would be a win/lose situation....and that is at BEST.

Think about it.

Right on. Notice the auto sales now?

http://volokh.com/2010/01/05/ford-sales-surge/

Ford Sales Surge
Jonathan H. Adler • January 5, 2010 2:03 pm

Ford Motor Company’s December 2009 sales were up 33 percent from December 2008. By comparison, Chrysler’s sales were down 4 percent. GM has yet to report. One factor is almost certainly the quality of Ford’s product — my wife certainly loves her Ford Edge and hopes we’ll get another when the lease runs out — but I suspect Ford’s position as the only major U.S. automaker to neither go bankrupt nor take bailout money is another.

UPDATE: GM December sales were down 6 percent. Most foreign automakers posted December gains. Honda, for instance, reported a 24 percent increase in December sales; Nissan an 18 percent gain.

 

[Sinatra]

The "Government Motors" backlash is very real. While other car companies show real recovery, GM and Chrysler continue to languish...

Nope...simply praying that those blinded by ideology such as yourself will realize that the rebound is inevitable and can only be slowed down by things like a stimulus.

Even if the stimulus DID work, we will then have the issue of paying the money back.....so it would be a win/lose situation....and that is at BEST.

Think about it.

Right on. Notice the auto sales now?

http://volokh.com/2010/01/05/ford-sales-surge/

Ford Sales Surge
Jonathan H. Adler • January 5, 2010 2:03 pm

Ford Motor Company’s December 2009 sales were up 33 percent from December 2008. By comparison, Chrysler’s sales were down 4 percent. GM has yet to report. One factor is almost certainly the quality of Ford’s product — my wife certainly loves her Ford Edge and hopes we’ll get another when the lease runs out — but I suspect Ford’s position as the only major U.S. automaker to neither go bankrupt nor take bailout money is another.

UPDATE: GM December sales were down 6 percent. Most foreign automakers posted December gains. Honda, for instance, reported a 24 percent increase in December sales; Nissan an 18 percent gain.