SHOCK POLL: Trump Receives 25% of Black Vote – Enough to Ensure a GOP Landslide

[tinydancer]

Now still cant get it out of my head. My husband can't either.

We're driving along. He's got her head in his hands. I tell Rog to look what he's doing to the woman. We turn around and she's gone. They are gone. I know we saw him kill her. I just don't know what we should do. This is years. Years. I know he killed her.

 

[Billy000]

Now still cant get it out of my head. My husband can't either.

We're driving along. He's got her head in his hands. I tell Rog to look what he's doing to the woman. We turn around and she's gone. They are gone. I know we saw him kill her. I just don't know what we should do. This is years. Years. I know he killed her.

Who is the pretty girl in your avatar?

 

[ninja007]

Blacks tend to not vote unless there's a black socialist running who hates white people.

You are weird. ALL you talk about is race. Blacks this and blacks that! Something is wrong with you... mentally...really!

The readers here noticed it too...just look at your present post.... a complete fib with no visible ties to reality. You completely disregard that Blacks have been voting for WHITE presidents for decades...and when a rare black man makes the cut... you swoop down Cawing incessantly about FOWL(foul) play.

you mean black libs are voting for white libs.

 

[LoneLaugher]

Yes. Getting 25% of a voter segment will absolutely guarantee a landslide.

That's common knowledge.

 

[Statistikhengst]

SHOCK POLL: Trump Receives 25% of Black Vote - Enough to Ensure a GOP Landslide - The Gateway Pundit

Statistikhengst can you make some sense out of this? True or not? I am tired and I just can't buy it.If its true I am shocked.Maybe bringing American jobs and cutting the invasion off is something blacks are in favor of as well...less invaders less competition for welfare!

SUSA, the pollster in question, had John McCain winning almost 480 electoral votes against Barack Obama in November/December 2007, in a series call the "SUSA 50" series. For instance, in Ohio, McCain was beating Obama 52/40 (+12) and according to SUSA, McCain was getting 21% of the Black vote:

SurveyUSA Election Poll #13056

On election night 2008, Obama won Ohio by +4.58% and took the Black vote in Ohio with 97% while McCain got all of 2%.

So, 11 months away from the 2008 election, SUSA was way off, but close to the 2008 election, it got it right.

BTW, that very same SUSA poll, if you go to the link, also had McCain beating Clinton and he was also getting 20% of the Black vote, which would never have happened.


Now, the national poll that the OP refers to is of 900 RV, a relatively small group for a national poll.


For shits and grins, let's look at the final SUSA poll for Ohio in 2012, released just one day before the election:

SurveyUSA Election Poll #20108

Susa predicted Obama 49 / Romney 44 (+5). The actual results were Obama 51 / Romney 48 (+3):

SurveyUSA Election Poll #20108

Look at the internals for SUSA:

So, in spite of overstating Obama's +2.97% win in Ohio by two points, SUSA actually predicted Romney with 12% of the Black Vote in the Buckeye state - ONE DAY BEFORE THE ELECTION.

Actual results, according to the 2012 exit polls for Ohio?

Ohio Presidential Race - 2012 Election Center - Elections & Politics from CNN.com

Romney got 3% of the black vote in Ohio, not 12%.

So, SUSA has a proven tradition of overstating the GOP take of the minority vote in many, many states, and yet, close to election time, usually picks the correct winner. One year out from the election, however, SUSA tends to be very, very wrong.


No other poll shows any Republican doing anything like this in the minority vote, especially in the Black vote.

It is highly, highly, highly unlikely, but statistically possible, that this is happening, that Trump is somehow get 25% of the Black vote. However, it is far more likely that the SUSA poll is what we call an "outlier". They happen now and then.

In one year, we can come back and see if this was for real, or not.

In Otober, 2012, a "Landmark Communications / Rosetta Stone" poll claimed that Mitt Romney was getting 22% of the Black vote in Georgia. He didn't....

So, I see this kind of sensationalism and I yawn a little bit...

Derideo_Te
nuhuh
Mertex
PaintMyHouse
AceRothstein
bodecea
Billy000

 

[Derideo_Te]

SHOCK POLL: Trump Receives 25% of Black Vote - Enough to Ensure a GOP Landslide - The Gateway Pundit

Statistikhengst can you make some sense out of this? True or not? I am tired and I just can't buy it.If its true I am shocked.Maybe bringing American jobs and cutting the invasion off is something blacks are in favor of as well...less invaders less competition for welfare!

SUSA, the pollster in question, had John McCain winning almost 480 electoral votes against Barack Obama in November/December 2007, in a series call the "SUSA 50" series. For instance, in Ohio, McCain was beating Obama 52/40 (+12) and according to SUSA, McCain was getting 21% of the Black vote:

SurveyUSA Election Poll #13056


View attachment 49507

On election night 2008, Obama won Ohio by +4.58% and took the Black vote in Ohio with 97% while McCain got all of 2%.

So, 11 months away from the 2008 election, SUSA was way off, but close to the 2008 election, it got it right.

BTW, that very same SUSA poll, if you go to the link, also had McCain beating Clinton and he was also getting 20% of the Black vote, which would never have happened.


Now, the national poll that the OP refers to is of 900 RV, a relatively small group for a national poll.


For shits and grins, let's look at the final SUSA poll for Ohio in 2012, released just one day before the election:

SurveyUSA Election Poll #20108

Susa predicted Obama 49 / Romney 44 (+5). The actual results were Obama 51 / Romney 48 (+3):

SurveyUSA Election Poll #20108

Look at the internals for SUSA:

View attachment 49509

So, in spite of overstating Obama's +2.97% win in Ohio by two points, SUSA actually predicted Romney with 12% of the Black Vote in the Buckeye state - ONE DAY BEFORE THE ELECTION.

Actual results, according to the 2012 exit polls for Ohio?

Ohio Presidential Race - 2012 Election Center - Elections & Politics from CNN.com

Romney got 3% of the black vote in Ohio, not 12%.

So, SUSA has a proven tradition of overstating the GOP take of the minority vote in many, many states, and yet, close to election time, usually picks the correct winner. One year out from the election, however, SUSA tends to be very, very wrong.


No other poll shows any Republican doing anything like this in the minority vote, especially in the Black vote.

It is highly, highly, highly unlikely, but statistically possible, that this is happening, that Trump is somehow get 25% of the Black vote. However, it is far more likely that the SUSA poll is what we call an "outlier". They happen now and then.

In one year, we can come back and see if this was for real, or not.

In Otober, 2012, a "Landmark Communications / Rosetta Stone" poll claimed that Mitt Romney was getting 22% of the Black vote in Georgia. He didn't....

So, I see this kind of sensationalism and I yawn a little bit...

Derideo_Te
nuhuh
Mertex
PaintMyHouse
AceRothstein
bodecea
Billy000

The disinformation that SUSA is providing to the GOP is doing more harm than good IMO.

It is telling the low IQ extremist rightwingers that they will get support that isn't going to materialize and that will just make them angry when they lose...again!

If, instead, it was giving an accurate reflection of the black votes that might get these mental midgets to clean up their act.

Oh wait!

That is never going to happen.

Nevermind!

 

[Statistikhengst]

SHOCK POLL: Trump Receives 25% of Black Vote - Enough to Ensure a GOP Landslide - The Gateway Pundit

Statistikhengst can you make some sense out of this? True or not? I am tired and I just can't buy it.If its true I am shocked.Maybe bringing American jobs and cutting the invasion off is something blacks are in favor of as well...less invaders less competition for welfare!

SUSA, the pollster in question, had John McCain winning almost 480 electoral votes against Barack Obama in November/December 2007, in a series call the "SUSA 50" series. For instance, in Ohio, McCain was beating Obama 52/40 (+12) and according to SUSA, McCain was getting 21% of the Black vote:

SurveyUSA Election Poll #13056


View attachment 49507

On election night 2008, Obama won Ohio by +4.58% and took the Black vote in Ohio with 97% while McCain got all of 2%.

So, 11 months away from the 2008 election, SUSA was way off, but close to the 2008 election, it got it right.

BTW, that very same SUSA poll, if you go to the link, also had McCain beating Clinton and he was also getting 20% of the Black vote, which would never have happened.


Now, the national poll that the OP refers to is of 900 RV, a relatively small group for a national poll.


For shits and grins, let's look at the final SUSA poll for Ohio in 2012, released just one day before the election:

SurveyUSA Election Poll #20108

Susa predicted Obama 49 / Romney 44 (+5). The actual results were Obama 51 / Romney 48 (+3):

SurveyUSA Election Poll #20108

Look at the internals for SUSA:

View attachment 49509

So, in spite of overstating Obama's +2.97% win in Ohio by two points, SUSA actually predicted Romney with 12% of the Black Vote in the Buckeye state - ONE DAY BEFORE THE ELECTION.

Actual results, according to the 2012 exit polls for Ohio?

Ohio Presidential Race - 2012 Election Center - Elections & Politics from CNN.com

Romney got 3% of the black vote in Ohio, not 12%.

So, SUSA has a proven tradition of overstating the GOP take of the minority vote in many, many states, and yet, close to election time, usually picks the correct winner. One year out from the election, however, SUSA tends to be very, very wrong.


No other poll shows any Republican doing anything like this in the minority vote, especially in the Black vote.

It is highly, highly, highly unlikely, but statistically possible, that this is happening, that Trump is somehow get 25% of the Black vote. However, it is far more likely that the SUSA poll is what we call an "outlier". They happen now and then.

In one year, we can come back and see if this was for real, or not.

In Otober, 2012, a "Landmark Communications / Rosetta Stone" poll claimed that Mitt Romney was getting 22% of the Black vote in Georgia. He didn't....

So, I see this kind of sensationalism and I yawn a little bit...

Derideo_Te
nuhuh
Mertex
PaintMyHouse
AceRothstein
bodecea
Billy000

The disinformation that SUSA is providing to the GOP is doing more harm than good IMO.

It is telling the low IQ extremist rightwingers that they will get support that isn't going to materialize and that will just make them angry when they lose...again!

If, instead, it was giving an accurate reflection of the black votes that might get these mental midgets to clean up their act.

Oh wait!

That is never going to happen.

Nevermind!

I'm not saying that SUSA is giving anyone disinformation. It is indeed possible that by this screen, 25% of self identified Black voters said yes to Trump in this case, but let's consider that a small group that would be, maybe 90 people. And it depends which geographical region was called where self-identified black voters gave their opinon.

What I can prove, however, time and time again, is that SUSA records a considerably higher take of the minority vote for GOP candidates than actually happens on election night. Then again, it tends to show a suppressed margin for the GOP in the White Vote as well. So, while the call may end up being right by the time election night comes around and the final SUSA poll (which this one is not, of course) shows the correct winner, the internals tend to be "mushy".

Not only that, since these metrics have been measured by one institute, since 1976 (the 1972 exit polls were not broken down by demographics), the highest % scored by a GOP presidential candidate was Gerald R. Ford, in 1976, with 17%. That is the high-water mark for the GOP.

Here the stats.

How Groups Voted - Roper Center

Black vote since 1976 (10 cycles, 40 years):

1976 (8% of the electorate): D 83 / R 17, margin = D +66
1980: (10% of the electorate): D 83 / R 14, I 3, margin = D +69
1984: (10% of the electorate): D 91 / R 9, , margin = D +82
1988: (10% of the electorate): D 89 / R 11, , margin = D +78
1992: (8% of the electorate): D 83 / R 10, I 7, margin = D +73
1996: (10% of the electorate): D 84 / R 12, I 4, margin = D +72
2000: (10% of the electorate): D 90 / R 9, I 1, margin = D +81
2004: (11% of the electorate): D 88 / R 11, , margin = D +78
2008: (13% of the electorate): D 95 / R 4, , margin = D +91
2012: (13% of the electorate): D 93 / R 6, , margin = D +87

Now, pre-Civil-Rights act of 1964, it is entirely possible that many more of our Black citizens voted for a Republican like Eisenhower, sure surely as of 1964, not any more.

The high-water mark for the GOP in the black vote since the Nixon Southern State Strategy is 17%. Ronald Reagan, who won a truly impressive national landslide in 1984, the last true landslide (+18.22%), only got 9% of the black vote. The lowest black vote percentage for a Democrat in a two man race in the last 30+ years is 88%.

Now, after 7 years of a Black president and the constant demonization of black people by so many within the GOP, in just so many ways, I think that the chances that a GOP nominee would do better than 10% are absolutely null.

 

[Geaux4it]

Don't you find it suspicious that the only polls showing Trump ahead is from one source?

Its why I asked Stat to look into it. He seems to be our resident poll person

"Gateway Pundit" possibly the most untrusted source on the planet.

No that's ANYTHING from CNN,FOX,MSNBC,etc etc.

You are entitled to believe whatever you want, but the fact that poll is being reported nowhere on the internet is significant as is the fact for Trump to win the presidency he has to have 45% of the Latino vote which he clearly will not.

Hmmmm, wrong. That's bullshit. That assumes his percentage of the other voting blocks won't change.

You need women, Gays, Millennials, single women, Hispanics, Blacks, and you cannot win without a sizable percentage of each. Now please tell me how you, Trump and the Republican Party, are going to pick up votes from them when you have run off Planned Parenthood, put in place harsh abortion law, tried to keep the gay marriage situation unequal, do nothing about jobs, do nothing about the cost of an education, plan to deport all illegals and separate families, and make fun of "black Lives Matter?

All they believe they need is this, ****** before a stop at Chick-Fil-A on the way home, past those poor ****** parts...

Now there is your Homeland Security.... Yes indeed

-Geaux

 

[Statistikhengst]

Its why I asked Stat to look into it. He seems to be our resident poll person
No that's ANYTHING from CNN,FOX,MSNBC,etc etc.

You are entitled to believe whatever you want, but the fact that poll is being reported nowhere on the internet is significant as is the fact for Trump to win the presidency he has to have 45% of the Latino vote which he clearly will not.

Hmmmm, wrong. That's bullshit. That assumes his percentage of the other voting blocks won't change.

You need women, Gays, Millennials, single women, Hispanics, Blacks, and you cannot win without a sizable percentage of each. Now please tell me how you, Trump and the Republican Party, are going to pick up votes from them when you have run off Planned Parenthood, put in place harsh abortion law, tried to keep the gay marriage situation unequal, do nothing about jobs, do nothing about the cost of an education, plan to deport all illegals and separate families, and make fun of "black Lives Matter?

All they believe they need is this, ****** before a stop at Chick-Fil-A on the way home, past those poor ****** parts...

Now there is your Homeland Security.... Yes indeed

-Geaux

...lol....

 

[Mac1958]

Black people don't like illegal aliens taking their jobs and driving their wages down either. That's something the open-borders assholes never considered.

I don't know if this is true, but it's a pretty interesting possibility.
.

 

[Wildman]

No question....Stat is big into polls of all kinds.

do not forget cut'n paste.

 

[thereisnospoon]

SHOCK POLL: Trump Receives 25% of Black Vote - Enough to Ensure a GOP Landslide - The Gateway Pundit

Statistikhengst can you make some sense out of this? True or not? I am tired and I just can't buy it.If its true I am shocked.Maybe bringing American jobs and cutting the invasion off is something blacks are in favor of as well...less invaders less competition for welfare!

Don't you find it suspicious that the only polls showing Trump ahead is from one source?

I find it suspicious that you are still permitted to post here......

 

[Mac1958]

The Hispanics in my family REALLY REALLY REALLY don't like Trump. BIG time. Even my very conservative Father in Law crinkles his nose at the guy.

I'd be very surprised to see him get 10% nationally.
.

 

[Statistikhengst]

do not forget cut'n paste.

Oh, you are inviting PoliticalChic to this thread!!!

 

[thereisnospoon]

"Gateway Pundit" possibly the most untrusted source on the planet.

Yes, but snopes, salon and mother jones have surpassed ABC as "uniquely qualified to bring you the news"....

 

[thereisnospoon]

SHOCK POLL: Trump Receives 25% of Black Vote - Enough to Ensure a GOP Landslide - The Gateway Pundit

Statistikhengst can you make some sense out of this? True or not? I am tired and I just can't buy it.If its true I am shocked.Maybe bringing American jobs and cutting the invasion off is something blacks are in favor of as well...less invaders less competition for welfare!

Don't you find it suspicious that the only polls showing Trump ahead is from one source?

Its why I asked Stat to look into it. He seems to be our resident poll person

"Gateway Pundit" possibly the most untrusted source on the planet.

No that's ANYTHING from CNN,FOX,MSNBC,etc etc.

These libs live and die by polls. Because they are too lazy, too tied up with their busy little lives toting their "greatest kids on the planet" soccer practice, to pay attention. so they rely on polls.
Shit both Clinton and Obama govern(ed) based on polling data.

 

[thereisnospoon]

SHOCK POLL: Trump Receives 25% of Black Vote - Enough to Ensure a GOP Landslide - The Gateway Pundit

Statistikhengst can you make some sense out of this? True or not? I am tired and I just can't buy it.If its true I am shocked.Maybe bringing American jobs and cutting the invasion off is something blacks are in favor of as well...less invaders less competition for welfare!

Don't you find it suspicious that the only polls showing Trump ahead is from one source?

Its why I asked Stat to look into it. He seems to be our resident poll person

"Gateway Pundit" possibly the most untrusted source on the planet.

No that's ANYTHING from CNN,FOX,MSNBC,etc etc.

You are entitled to believe whatever you want, but the fact that poll is being reported nowhere on the internet is significant as is the fact for Trump to win the presidency he has to have 45% of the Latino vote which he clearly will not.

"You're entitled to believe what you want"...As are you...
You also don't get to take your beliefs and present them in the form of a conclusion....."which he clearly will not"....NO...You do not get to say that and expect to go unchallenged.
How the **** do you know? Do you as a left winger have some kind of electoral crystal ball the rest of us do not?
Or are you one of these left wing loons that arrogantly believes and demands all people of minority groups vote in lockstep for democrats?
Look pal...Illegals don't vote. And if they do, there is cheating. And if there is cheating, all the more reason Voter ID laws are not only necessary, they should be a requirement.

 

[thereisnospoon]

Trump has this vote all locked up.

That's all our Hitler-youth cares about...

Dude...everyone's ignoring you.....

 

[BULLDOG]

SHOCK POLL: Trump Receives 25% of Black Vote - Enough to Ensure a GOP Landslide - The Gateway Pundit

Statistikhengst can you make some sense out of this? True or not? I am tired and I just can't buy it.If its true I am shocked.Maybe bringing American jobs and cutting the invasion off is something blacks are in favor of as well...less invaders less competition for welfare!

Don't you find it suspicious that the only polls showing Trump ahead is from one source?

Its why I asked Stat to look into it. He seems to be our resident poll person

"Gateway Pundit" possibly the most untrusted source on the planet.

No that's ANYTHING from CNN,FOX,MSNBC,etc etc.

These libs live and die by polls. Because they are too lazy, too tied up with their busy little lives toting their "greatest kids on the planet" soccer practice, to pay attention. so they rely on polls.
Shit both Clinton and Obama govern(ed) based on polling data.

I guess it could look that way, because the majority of the country has supported him in most of what he has done, but he stated those goals from the git go. The polls only verified he was still on the right course.

 

[thereisnospoon]

The Hispanics in my family REALLY REALLY REALLY don't like Trump. BIG time. Even my very conservative Father in Law crinkles his nose at the guy.

I'd be very surprised to see him get 10% nationally.
.

Why not?....Because Trump exposed the truth about what type of people are coming from mexico to here illegally?....Don't tell me your relatives are not aware the criminal element that has followed illegals across the border.....Each day, Latinos both illegal and legal immigrants are victimized by Latino criminals. Those crimes go largely unreported. This happens because these people do not trust the police because where they come from the police are in the pockets of the drug cartels and other criminal organizations.
Every so often we'll see a news story or expose in the newspaper about this.
I say anyone who immigrated to this country legally should forget ethnicity for a moment and think of how long it took and how many hoops they had to jump through to become legal residents of the US, and then think about all those taking short cuts and thus a cloud of suspicion is made to hang over ALL those with Spanish surnames....Your relatives should be thinking about how to compel all those who wish to come here do it in the correct manner and follow the laws of the US....I challenge you to let them read this post.