Deepwater drilling analysis suggests significant increase in activity - Offshore
The long-term trend for deeper water developments has been evident for many years, and it is clear from the charts that until now deepwater has been associated with the US GoM, with this area alone accounting for nearly three-quarters of all deepwater fields brought onstream in the period 1999-2003
While
the overall volume and value of deepwater development wells is increasing, the nature of wells follows from the proliferation of deepwater exploration records set over the past few years with a continued move into deeper waters.
The money continues to flow into deeper waters with the ultra-deepwater drilling forecast to account for almost a quarter of all development drilling by 2008.
If we look at the deepest development completed and forecast to be completed by year, we see an almost linear progression through the 1980s, into the 1990s, and through into the current decade, with the expectation that today's record exploration wells will turn into development wells beyond the current deepest well forecast at just short of 3,000 m.
The US GoM is the center of attention for ultra-deepwater activity, both for exploration and for development drilling. The next five years are forecast to see the US GoM continue with its progression toward the magical 3,000 m development.
The deepwater development drilling market is forecast to deliver the results that the drilling contractors expect, in terms of activity and revenue, over the next five years. The key question is whether the period beyond 2008 can deliver in the same way. Certainly, the continuance of water depth records is encouraging, but it also underlines the fact that the technical and commercial barriers to success are being pushed higher with average deepwater well costs increasing.
Is the industry ready yet, not just to drill exploration wells (as proven), but to produce from the frontier areas at and beyond 3,000 m? There is still much to be extracted from the "conventional" deepwater zone. With a considerable number of newbuild deepwater production vessels entering service, there will continue to be a need for additional tieback fields to maintain production levels beyond the peaks expected in 2009/10.
Deepwater development wells are likely to continue to be the backbone of the drilling industry.