Federal Revenues Are Projected to Increase Significantly Over the Next Two Years and Remain Steady as a Share of GDP Thereafter
Tax Expenditures Have a Significant Effect on Total Revenues
The tax rules on which CBO’s projections are based include the tax rates that apply to different types of income; they also include an array of exclusions, deductions, preferential rates, and credits, which reduce revenues, for any given level of tax rates, in both the individual and corporate income tax systems. Some of those provisions are called tax expenditures because, like government spending programs, they provide financial assistance to particular activities, entities, or groups of people. The tax expenditures that have the largest effect on revenues are the following:
- The exclusion from workers’ taxable income of employers’ contributions for health care, health insurance premiums, and long-term-care insurance premiums;
- The exclusion of contributions to and earnings of pension funds (minus pension benefits that are included in taxable income);
- Preferential tax rates on dividends and long-term capital gains; and
- The deduction of interest that homeowners pay on mortgages for their residences.
Those and other tax expenditures have a major effect on the federal budget. On the basis of
estimates prepared by the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation, CBO expects that under current law,
tax expenditures will total $1.4 trillion in 2014—or 8.2 percent of GDP—if their effects on social insurance taxes as well as on income taxes are included.
That amount equals nearly half of all federal revenues projected for the year and exceeds projected spending on Social Security, defense, or Medicare