The Decline
First let's have a look at Dutch demographer Jan Latten's 2004 portrait of Dutch marital decline. To all appearances, Latten is a social liberal who would happily defend recent changes in Dutch family life. That only makes Latten's account of marital decline more powerful.
Here is Latten's summary of the state of marriage in the Netherlands: "More cohabiting, more children born to unmarried couples, more family breakups among unmarried couples....The development of relationships and families is seen as a strictly private affair, while restrictions imposed from the outside—in the form of marriage, parenthood or divorce-could only serve to limit the freedom of individuals within these settings." "The citizen," says Latten, "has retreated from the public square." He continues, "More and more children are born out of wedlock. Here too we find a shift away from formal frameworks....people view not just relationships but even parenthood as an exclusively personal affair."
We already know that the Dutch out-of-wedlock birthrate began increasing more quickly in the mid-1990s. Latten's more extensive data confirm this: "the number of informal two-parent families as a share of the total number of couples has almost tripled between 1995 and 2003. The number of formal two-parent families (married couples with children) on the other hand, has decreased."
Supporters of same-sex marriage argue that these increases in the out-of-wedlock birthrate are less disturbing than they appear because many cohabiting parents eventually marry. Latten's data tell a different story. Even the practice of marrying before the arrival of a second child is now in decline. Says Latten: "Remarkably, the number of second and further children born to unmarried parents in the period 1995-2003 has risen relatively sharply. This could be an indication of the fact that the norm of staying unmarried is spreading at an increasing pace. It means the informalisation of parenthood has reached a stage where the very concept of family life has become a subject of diffusion."
The increase in unmarried parenthood for even second-born children (and later ones as well) is probably Latten's most striking finding. But the numbers for first-born children are also arresting: "Today, 40 percent of all firstborn children are born out of wedlock. Marriage is fast losing its status as the essential sine qua non condition of parenthood." (Remember, just a few years ago the Netherlands was touted for its unusually low out-of-wedlock birthrate.) Since unmarried parents break up at substantially higher rates than married parents, the end result of all this, says Latten, is more "informal" divorce among cohabiting parental couples.
Latten goes on to report on a survey of Dutch attitudes toward marriage. Whereas in 1992, 68 percent of Dutch men and women said that "marriage mattered to them," that number had declined to 45 percent by 2003. And the key change in Dutch family life in the intervening period? Gay marriage, of course.
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By the way, Latten predicts that Dutch marriage will continue to decline. He expects that the number of unmarried parents will increase by what he calls "a stunning 119 percent" by 2050.
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