Scott Rasmussen, the most accurate pollster in the business

[Vast LWC]

One things I have learned in over 45 Years of watching this shit. The Polls don't mean a god damn thing, Especially this early in the Race. Anyone can conduct a poll and word it so the out come favors what they want to hear guys.

If you are going to pay attention to polls, look closely at the sample size, Whether it was RV or LV or just adults ect. If they asked Party affiliation on the poll so you can see if it was an even amount or not.

Then Finally still take anything it says with a Grain of Salt.

only one poll is going to matter, that's Election day.

Well, I did say that these polls probably don't mean anything at this point.

I'm with you on that.

I'm just pointing out bias in said meaningless polls

Do we know who the most accurate poll last election was? I thought it was a tie between Rassmussen and another one.

IBD/TIPP and NBC/WSJ were the closest.

They each had Obama by +8, while Rasmussen had him by +6.

The final result was Obama by +7.6.

Of course all of that was inside the margin of error, so it probably makes next to no difference. But certainly Rasmussen didn't come close to "winning".

 

[Papageorgio]

Well, I did say that these polls probably don't mean anything at this point.

I'm with you on that.

I'm just pointing out bias in said meaningless polls

Do we know who the most accurate poll last election was? I thought it was a tie between Rassmussen and another one.

IBD/TIPP and NBC/WSJ were the closest.

They each had Obama by +8, while Rasmussen had him by +6.

The final result was Obama by +7.6.

Of course all of that was inside the margin of error, so it probably makes next to no difference. But certainly Rasmussen didn't come close to "winning".

This is a link I found, what link do you have.

http://www.fordham.edu/images/acade...ccuracy in the 2008 presidential election.pdf

 

[Vast LWC]

Uhm no, they were tied for first with Pew...
( notice who's missing? )


1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**

1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**

3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)

4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)

5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*

6T. ARG (10/25-27)*

8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)

8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)

10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

The List: Which presidential polls were most accurate? | Texas on the Potomac | a Chron.com blog

and I asked for the last 6 elections, anyone can be right or place in the top 3 once or twice.




you don't know what I am driving at? here-

you do know there is a big difference between expectations results, ala RV and LV sampling this far out from the election....? right?

Do I need to explain this to you? LV vs. RV vs. A sampling etc...?

and? this needs explaining to?

were where you when gallup had obama down 5 and ras had him flat in popularity etc?

seriously?


and media polls imho are not dependable, I don't care who they are fox, wall st/nbc, AP, UPS, whomever, they do not do this for a living, their bread and butter doesn't depend on it as this is not their lively hood.

Gallup Pew and Ras are the top 3 over the years. Gallup and Ras are the only 2 which carry the 3 day tracking....

there no bloomberg becasue their poll is to old.

Uh no.

Note this little gem in the first few paragraphs of your own link:

above his current 6.15-point popular vote lead.

The final tally was Obama by 7.6%.

You see, that's how Rasmussen has been claiming "victory" all this time.

They stopped counting the votes once the numbers aligned with their predictions.

 

[Papageorgio]

Uhm no, they were tied for first with Pew...
( notice who's missing? )


1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**

1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**

3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)

4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)

5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*

6T. ARG (10/25-27)*

8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)

8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)

10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

The List: Which presidential polls were most accurate? | Texas on the Potomac | a Chron.com blog

and I asked for the last 6 elections, anyone can be right or place in the top 3 once or twice.




you don't know what I am driving at? here-

you do know there is a big difference between expectations results, ala RV and LV sampling this far out from the election....? right?

Do I need to explain this to you? LV vs. RV vs. A sampling etc...?

and? this needs explaining to?



seriously?


and media polls imho are not dependable, I don't care who they are fox, wall st/nbc, AP, UPS, whomever, they do not do this for a living, their bread and butter doesn't depend on it as this is not their lively hood.

Gallup Pew and Ras are the top 3 over the years. Gallup and Ras are the only 2 which carry the 3 day tracking....

there no bloomberg becasue their poll is to old.

Uh no.

Note this little gem in the first few paragraphs of your own link:

above his current 6.15-point popular vote lead.

The final tally was Obama by 7.6%.

You see, that's how Rasmussen has been claiming "victory" all this time.

They stopped counting the votes once the numbers aligned with their predictions.

It is a Fordham's study, not mine. So take it up with them but it isn't Rasmussens claiming anything.

 

[Papageorgio]

Your NBC and other one are on there, they are 15th and 16th.

The Pew Research Center and Rasmussen Reports were the most accurate in predicting the results of the 2008 election, according to a new analysis by Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos.

The Fordham analysis ranks 23 survey research organizations on their final, national pre-election polls, as reported on pollster.com.

On average, the polls slightly overestimated Obama’s strength. The final polls showed the Democratic ahead by an average of 7.52 percentage points — 1.37 percentage points above his current 6.15-point popular vote lead. Seventeen of the 23 surveys overstated Obama’s final victory level, while four underestimated it. Only two — Rasmussen and Pew — were spot on.




Here is the list –

1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**

1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**

3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)

4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)

5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*

6T. ARG (10/25-27)*

8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)

8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)

10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)

12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)

13. FOX (11/1-2)

14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)

15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)

16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)

17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)

18. Marist College (11/3)

19. CBS (10/31-11/2)

20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)

21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)

22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)

23. Newsweek (10/22-23)

 

[Dick Tuck]

Rasmussen won't show you who they polled unless you pay.

Rasmussen won't show his Likely Voter criteria. That's why his polls are totally fucked up, until a week before an election.

 

[Vast LWC]

Uhm no, they were tied for first with Pew...
( notice who's missing? )


1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**

1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**

3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)

4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)

5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*

6T. ARG (10/25-27)*

8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)

8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)

10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

The List: Which presidential polls were most accurate? | Texas on the Potomac | a Chron.com blog

and I asked for the last 6 elections, anyone can be right or place in the top 3 once or twice.




you don't know what I am driving at? here-





Do I need to explain this to you? LV vs. RV vs. A sampling etc...?

and? this needs explaining to?



seriously?


and media polls imho are not dependable, I don't care who they are fox, wall st/nbc, AP, UPS, whomever, they do not do this for a living, their bread and butter doesn't depend on it as this is not their lively hood.

Gallup Pew and Ras are the top 3 over the years. Gallup and Ras are the only 2 which carry the 3 day tracking....

there no bloomberg becasue their poll is to old.

Uh no.

Note this little gem in the first few paragraphs of your own link:

above his current 6.15-point popular vote lead.

The final tally was Obama by 7.6%.

You see, that's how Rasmussen has been claiming "victory" all this time.

They stopped counting the votes once the numbers aligned with their predictions.

It is a Fordham's study, not mine. So take it up with them but it isn't Rasmussens claiming anything.

yes, it's Fordham's study, and Fordham did nothing wrong, because they ran the study right after it was called, before the final results were in.

 

[Dick Tuck]

Not.


RCP Average..................47/44.4..Obama +2.6

Gallup Tracking ..............48/44....Obama +4
Rasmussen Tracking.......44/47....Romney +3
CNN/Opinion Research....49/46....Obama +3
Newsweek/Daily Beast....47/44....Obama +3
Democracy Corps (D)......49/46....Obama +3
FOX News......................45/40....Obama +5
NBC News/WS Journal.....47/44....Obama +3


But I guess FoxNews and the Wall Street Journal are just liberal media propaganda outlets...

I have just one question for you: How do you the others are right and Rasmussen is wrong? Maybe Rasmussen is spot on, I don't know, but either do you with the others.

Last election, Rassmussen had McCain winning, using his tracking poll, until the final week.

 

[Vast LWC]

Your NBC and other one are on there, they are 15th and 16th.

The Pew Research Center and Rasmussen Reports were the most accurate in predicting the results of the 2008 election, according to a new analysis by Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos.

The Fordham analysis ranks 23 survey research organizations on their final, national pre-election polls, as reported on pollster.com.

On average, the polls slightly overestimated Obama’s strength. The final polls showed the Democratic ahead by an average of 7.52 percentage points — 1.37 percentage points above his current 6.15-point popular vote lead. Seventeen of the 23 surveys overstated Obama’s final victory level, while four underestimated it. Only two — Rasmussen and Pew — were spot on.




Here is the list –

1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**

1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**

3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)

4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)

5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*

6T. ARG (10/25-27)*

8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)

8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)

10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)

12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)

13. FOX (11/1-2)

14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)

15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)

16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)

17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)

18. Marist College (11/3)

19. CBS (10/31-11/2)

20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)

21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)

22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)

23. Newsweek (10/22-23)

Which was accurate, if people stopped counting the votes at that point.

Since the final tally is what's important for a poll, not the election night results, the rankings here are completely premature.

 

[blackhawk]

I will ask one question about Rasmussen as a accurate pollster what was the last election they got wrong or missed the final results by a large number?

 

[Vast LWC]

And no, I do not need an explanation of "Likely Voters", what I need is for Rasmussen to give me a detailed explanation of how he arrived at the "likely voter" tally...

and then an explanation of how one can tell what "likely" voters are anymore, in an age where the voters behave like the dog in "Up".

 

[Vast LWC]

"Yeah... I think I'm going to vote for Romn...

SQUIRREL!"

 

[clevergirl]

Not.


RCP Average..................47/44.4..Obama +2.6

Gallup Tracking ..............48/44....Obama +4
Rasmussen Tracking.......44/47....Romney +3
CNN/Opinion Research....49/46....Obama +3
Newsweek/Daily Beast....47/44....Obama +3
Democracy Corps (D)......49/46....Obama +3
FOX News......................45/40....Obama +5
NBC News/WS Journal.....47/44....Obama +3


But I guess FoxNews and the Wall Street Journal are just liberal media propaganda outlets...

I have just one question for you: How do you the others are right and Rasmussen is wrong? Maybe Rasmussen is spot on, I don't know, but either do you with the others.

Last election, Rassmussen had McCain winning, using his tracking poll, until the final week.

You are either a total ignoramus or a dishonest hack- I'll let other posters decide.



Poll Analysis: 2008 Rasmussen Daily McCain vs. Obama Tracking Poll | Race 4 2012

 

[onecut39]

If you cast out the outlier, Obama is up by 3.5%

Of course, none of this really means much at this point in the game.

I just think it's fun to point out how much of an outlier Rasmussen is, as he is just about all the time.

I have watched polls for many years. In the last dozen years Rasmussen consistently polls 2 to 4 points in favor of the right wing in comparison with other pollsters. Not always mind you but enough to make you wonder.

Take a look at the historic polling on RCP and see if you agree.

 

[clevergirl]

And no, I do not need an explanation of "Likely Voters", what I need is for Rasmussen to give me a detailed explanation of how he arrived at the "likely voter" tally...

and then an explanation of how one can tell what "likely" voters are anymore, in an age where the voters behave like the dog in "Up".

If you really wanted to know you would go to their site and search for the answer- the fact is that you don't give a flying ****- you are already married to your position. A position based on partisan stupidity and grounded in ignorance.

 

[Trajan]

Uhm no, they were tied for first with Pew...
( notice who's missing? )


1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**

1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**

3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)

4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)

5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*

6T. ARG (10/25-27)*

8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)

8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)

10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

The List: Which presidential polls were most accurate? | Texas on the Potomac | a Chron.com blog

and I asked for the last 6 elections, anyone can be right or place in the top 3 once or twice.




you don't know what I am driving at? here-

you do know there is a big difference between expectations results, ala RV and LV sampling this far out from the election....? right?

Do I need to explain this to you? LV vs. RV vs. A sampling etc...?

and? this needs explaining to?



seriously?


and media polls imho are not dependable, I don't care who they are fox, wall st/nbc, AP, UPS, whomever, they do not do this for a living, their bread and butter doesn't depend on it as this is not their lively hood.

Gallup Pew and Ras are the top 3 over the years. Gallup and Ras are the only 2 which carry the 3 day tracking....

there no bloomberg becasue their poll is to old.

Uh no.

Note this little gem in the first few paragraphs of your own link:

above his current 6.15-point popular vote lead.

The final tally was Obama by 7.6%.

You see, that's how Rasmussen has been claiming "victory" all this time.

They stopped counting the votes once the numbers aligned with their predictions.

they stopped what? I have no idea what you are trying to say here... the 'paragraph' you alluded too;

On average, the polls slightly overestimated Obama’s strength. The final polls showed the Democratic ahead by an average of 7.52 percentage points — 1.37 percentage points above his current 6.15-point popular vote lead. Seventeen of the 23 surveys overstated Obama’s final victory level, while four underestimated it. Only two — Rasmussen and Pew — were spot on

nate silver-

In summation, none of these tracking polls are perfect, although Rasmussen -- with its large sample size and high pollster rating -- would probably be the one I'd want with me on a desert island. Conversely, the only one of the trackers that I consider obviously dubious is Zogby.

FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Tracking Poll Primer

Poll Obama McCain Spread (actual=6.5) Off by
Rasmussen Reports 52 46 6 0.5
Pew 52 46 6 0.5
GWU/Battleground 50 44 6 0.5
Ipsos/McClatchy 53 46 7 0.5
CNN/Opinion Research 53 46 7 0.5
Fox News 50 43 7 0.5
Diageo/Hotline 50 45 5 1.5
NBC News / Wall St. Journal 51 43 8 1.5
Gallup Traditional 51 43 8 1.5
IBD/TIPP 52 44 8 1.5
Marist 52 43 9 2.5
ABC News / Wash Post 53 44 9 2.5
Gallup Expanded 52 43 9 2.5
CBS News / NYT 51 42 9 2.5
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 54 43 11 4.5

The table below is an assessment of pollster performance in the 2008 Presidential election. The pollsters were graded on both the accuracy of their final poll (popular vote) and the consistency of their polling during the month of October.

The overall score is a weighted average of their Accuracy and Consistency numbers. The weighting is 75% accuracy and 25% consistency. Formula details are at the bottom of this page.

Overall
Poll Score Grade Accuracy Consistency
Rasmussen Reports 91% A- 92% 86%
Ipsos/McClatchy 89% B+ 92% 79%
CNN/Opinion Research 88% B+ 92% 77%
Fox News 84% B 92% 61%
Pew 83% B- 92% 56%
GWU/Battleground 79% C+ 92% 41%
Diageo/Hotline 77% C+ 77% 79%
NBC News / Wall St. Journal 76% C 77% 75%
Gallup Traditional 73% C- 77% 63%
Marist 67% D+ 62% 82%
ABC News / Wash Post 67% D+ 62% 82%
IBD/TIPP 66% D 77% 34%
Gallup Expanded 66% D 62% 78%
CBS News / NYT 60% D- 62% 56%
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 35% F 31% 48%

2008 Intrade Vs. Actual Election Results



and-

As for polling firms, the respected Pew firm was right there with Silver, showing a 52-46 national vote breakdown in its final survey. (Though it's important to note that pollsters, unlike analysts, see their principal role as trying to reflect the electorate ahead of election day, as opposed to making predictions.) Rasmussen can also take a bow for getting the national numbers right.


BEST AND WORST LAST-MINUTE POLLS:

National:

Best: PEW and Rasmussen, noted above

Worst: Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby, 11/3: Obama 54/McCain 43

Florida:

Best: Public Policy Polling, 11/2: Obama 50/McCain 48

Worst: Fox-Rassumussen, 11/2: McCain 50/Obama 49

Ohio:

Best: CNN/TIME, 10/28: Obama 51/McCain 47

Worst: Strategic Vision, 11/2: McCain 48/Obama 46

Virginia:

Best: Fox-Rasmussen, 11/2: Obama 51/McCain 47

Worst: CNN/TIME, 10/28: Obama 53/McCain 44

Missouri:

Best: Zogby, Rasmussen and others had this race accurately tied at 49/49.

Worst: Politico/InsiderAdvantage, 10/29: McCain 50/Obama 47

Colorado:

Best: American Research Group, 10/30: Obama 52/McCain 45

Worst: YouGov/Polimetrix, 11/1: Obama 55/McCain 40

Election Poll Review: Who Got It Right?



I don't know what else to tell you.....but iti sounds to me like you have a bias. it is what it is dude.

 

[clevergirl]

I have just one question for you: How do you the others are right and Rasmussen is wrong? Maybe Rasmussen is spot on, I don't know, but either do you with the others.

Last election, Rassmussen had McCain winning, using his tracking poll, until the final week.

You are either a total ignoramus or a dishonest hack- I'll let other posters decide.



Poll Analysis: 2008 Rasmussen Daily McCain vs. Obama Tracking Poll | Race 4 2012

Rasmussen is a good pollster- He is not a partisan no matter how many times you say he is. He makes money by being accurate not political.

 

[Trajan]

If you cast out the outlier, Obama is up by 3.5%

Of course, none of this really means much at this point in the game.

I just think it's fun to point out how much of an outlier Rasmussen is, as he is just about all the time.

I have watched polls for many years. In the last dozen years Rasmussen consistently polls 2 to 4 points in favor of the right wing in comparison with other pollsters. Not always mind you but enough to make you wonder.

Take a look at the historic polling on RCP and see if you agree.

doesn't appear that way here, now, he blew up a lot of the 2010 races but as I said earlier over the last 6 elections since hes stated biz in 2003 hes been right there and on top more than gallup has....and as I said, they are the only 2 who do this full time for a living and every 3-4 days, if they blew partisan chuncks they wouldn't be in business......did you know that nate silver worked together in 2008 too? why would nate work with him if he thought he was a fraud?Maybe, becasue, hes not.

 

[clevergirl]

If you cast out the outlier, Obama is up by 3.5%

Of course, none of this really means much at this point in the game.

I just think it's fun to point out how much of an outlier Rasmussen is, as he is just about all the time.

I have watched polls for many years. In the last dozen years Rasmussen consistently polls 2 to 4 points in favor of the right wing in comparison with other pollsters. Not always mind you but enough to make you wonder.

Take a look at the historic polling on RCP and see if you agree.

doesn't appear that way here, now, he blew up a lot of the 2010 races but as I said earlier over the last 6 elections since hes stated biz in 2003 hes been right there and on top more than gallup has....and as I said, they are the only 2 who do this full time for a living and every 3-4 days, if they blew partisan chuncks they wouldn't be in business......did you know that nate silver worked together in 2008 too? why would nate work with him if he thought he was a fraud?Maybe, becasue, hes not.

RCP uses Gallup and Rasmussen, who coincidentally are usually close to one another and who also not coincidentally, use Likely Voter's.

 

[clevergirl]

If you cast out the outlier, Obama is up by 3.5%

Of course, none of this really means much at this point in the game.

I just think it's fun to point out how much of an outlier Rasmussen is, as he is just about all the time.

I have watched polls for many years. In the last dozen years Rasmussen consistently polls 2 to 4 points in favor of the right wing in comparison with other pollsters. Not always mind you but enough to make you wonder.

Take a look at the historic polling on RCP and see if you agree.

doesn't appear that way here, now, he blew up a lot of the 2010 races but as I said earlier over the last 6 elections since hes stated biz in 2003 hes been right there and on top more than gallup has....and as I said, they are the only 2 who do this full time for a living and every 3-4 days, if they blew partisan chuncks they wouldn't be in business......did you know that nate silver worked together in 2008 too? why would nate work with him if he thought he was a fraud?Maybe, becasue, hes not.

I guess that once again facts have gotten in the way of a good liberal rant