Scientist's quake predictions were ignored

[Chris]

L'AQUILA, Italy (CNN) -- A researcher says he predicted Monday's devastating earthquake that killed dozens of people and left tens of thousands homeless in central Italy, but authorities dismissed him as a scaremonger.

Gioacchino Giuliani, an employee at a physics institute at Gran Sasso, near the badly-hit city of L'Aquila, has demanded an official apology for what he says was an unforgivable failure to act on his predictions.

"There are people who must apologize to me, and they must have the weight of what occurred on their conscience," Giuliani said after the quake hit, according to local news site Ilcapoluogo.com.

Last month, vans with loudspeakers drove around the area broadcasting Giuliani's warning after he claimed his method of predicting seismic events by radon gas emissions had forecast an imminent quake.

The scientist was reported to police for spreading false alarms and was made to remove his findings from the Internet. "They called me an imbecile," he said.

Scientist: My quake prediction was ignored - CNN.com

 

[KittenKoder]

So basically, since he never told anyone because he didn't make the prediction scientifically, but instead said it in passing (like my predictions) because it came true it's everyone elses fault.

I like how he was "forced to remove" something he posted on the internet, convenient way to cover up the facts huh? I've got a web host stationed in Brittian I rent for $9 a month, nothing can stop someone from posting something online, even illegal content (just use the ones in Russia or some other country that agrees with you if you want). So ... yeah ... sorry but it holds little water.

 

[Chris]

So basically, since he never told anyone because he didn't make the prediction scientifically, but instead said it in passing (like my predictions) because it came true it's everyone elses fault.

I like how he was "forced to remove" something he posted on the internet, convenient way to cover up the facts huh? I've got a web host stationed in Brittian I rent for $9 a month, nothing can stop someone from posting something online, even illegal content (just use the ones in Russia or some other country that agrees with you if you want). So ... yeah ... sorry but it holds little water.

Seriously, do you have a reading retention problem?

He hired vans to ride around and broadcast the warning.

 

[ItsFairmont]

So, he predicted this for up to a month in advance. What were people supposed to do, sleep in the street until the earthquake?

The reason so many people were hurt will come down to building codes.

Also, why are they making multi-story buildings in fault zones? They should not be using stonework or multiple levels.


IT works like this: Stone structures and basements in tornado zones.

Light housing in earthquake zones.

Problem solved.

 

[xsited1]

If the 'authorities' don't agree with your findings, they'll get the police to shut you up. Sounds all too familiar.

The scientist was reported to police for spreading false alarms and was made to remove his findings from the Internet.

So who reported him to police? I'm guessing it's a fellow scientist (or scientists).

 

[Chris]

The Japanese have been using radon gas to try to predict earthquakes as well...

During the 1993 observation period, concentrations of radon were stable at 20Bq/l. By the end of Nov 1994 levels had increased to 60Bq/l. On 7 Jan 1995 a huge increase in radon concentration was observed (to ca. 250Bq/l). These high levels dropped suddenly on 10 Jan, one week before the earthquake. By the time of the earthquake levels had returned to about 30 Bq/l, levels confirmed when the station came back on-line on 22 Jan (monitoring equipment had been damaged by the main shock).
The researchers have examined other possible reasons for the observed increase in Radon levels, but no satisfactory alternate explanation could be found. Over the period of well-monitoring ground water temperature remained almost constant (±0.2°C), and there was no significant rainfall which might have affected the aquifer. Atmospheric pressure is known to have little effect on radon concentrations, so meteorological explanations were also unlikely.
Fujita Research Report - Earthquake Prediction

 

[Yurt]

i blame obama

 

[KittenKoder]

The sad thing, so many were killed and hurt in this but someone just had to use it as political ammo instead of using their scientific knowledge to help after the fact, instead they are immature enough to waggle with "I told you so".

 

[Yurt]

The sad thing, so many were killed and hurt in this but someone just had to use it as political ammo instead of using their scientific knowledge to help after the fact, instead they are immature enough to waggle with "I told you so".

maybe "i told you so" will save lives in the future...maybe they will listen to his results...

 

[KittenKoder]

The sad thing, so many were killed and hurt in this but someone just had to use it as political ammo instead of using their scientific knowledge to help after the fact, instead they are immature enough to waggle with "I told you so".

maybe "i told you so" will save lives in the future...maybe they will listen to his results...

When has anyone ever been happy to listen to someone who says "I told you so" instead of trying to help out after the fact?

 

[TonyColorado]

Didn't Bobby Jindal say quake research was a waste of money?

 

[Yurt]

The sad thing, so many were killed and hurt in this but someone just had to use it as political ammo instead of using their scientific knowledge to help after the fact, instead they are immature enough to waggle with "I told you so".

maybe "i told you so" will save lives in the future...maybe they will listen to his results...

When has anyone ever been happy to listen to someone who says "I told you so" instead of trying to help out after the fact?

since when do people like being told they are wrong...

and since when is it a factor that someone must like what you are saying in order for the words to be effective? if this guy is just ranting i told you so, nah, nah, nah, nah...different than...i told you so, had you listened to me lives could have been saved...and in the future if he is right, lives might be saved.

i'm not passing judgment, but to outright dismiss his words simply because you don't like people saying i told you so is myopic

 

[Old Rocks]

So basically, since he never told anyone because he didn't make the prediction scientifically, but instead said it in passing (like my predictions) because it came true it's everyone elses fault.

I like how he was "forced to remove" something he posted on the internet, convenient way to cover up the facts huh? I've got a web host stationed in Brittian I rent for $9 a month, nothing can stop someone from posting something online, even illegal content (just use the ones in Russia or some other country that agrees with you if you want). So ... yeah ... sorry but it holds little water.

Emission of radon is one of the methods used to predict immenant quakes. Not at all foolproof. But there have been several quakes predicted by the Japanese and Chinese. Many false alarms, also. A young science, primitive still. About where prediction in vulcanology was prior to St. Helens.

 

[Old Rocks]

So, he predicted this for up to a month in advance. What were people supposed to do, sleep in the street until the earthquake?

The reason so many people were hurt will come down to building codes.

Also, why are they making multi-story buildings in fault zones? They should not be using stonework or multiple levels.


IT works like this: Stone structures and basements in tornado zones.

Light housing in earthquake zones.

Problem solved.

Hmmm......... little event in 1812 might prove that to be a false premise.

 

[Old Rocks]

The sad thing, so many were killed and hurt in this but someone just had to use it as political ammo instead of using their scientific knowledge to help after the fact, instead they are immature enough to waggle with "I told you so".

Well, maybe if his methods prove themselves on couple more quakes, then after the lives are lost in those quakes, they will listen? Not really.

Political ammo? He tried to warn the people in his town. He was shut down. And he was right this time.

 

[Old Rocks]

The sad thing, so many were killed and hurt in this but someone just had to use it as political ammo instead of using their scientific knowledge to help after the fact, instead they are immature enough to waggle with "I told you so".

maybe "i told you so" will save lives in the future...maybe they will listen to his results...

When has anyone ever been happy to listen to someone who says "I told you so" instead of trying to help out after the fact?

The many people that lived around Pinatubo were very happy that they listened to the geologists that had studied St. Helens.

I see from this and other posts that you have one hell of a resentment of real scientists. Too bad.

 

[garyd]

And may not be next time. Earthquakes are iffy things at best.

 

[Old Rocks]

And may not be next time. Earthquakes are iffy things at best.

No, earthquakes are not at all iffy. In areas like Italy, they are a certainty. Just the timing of them that is not known. There are precursor events that sometimes predict the quakes fairly well. As we obtain more information on the geology and history of each area, and use more equipment like the strain gauges, we will get a better handle on prediction. Even thought the methods are not that developed at present, when all the signs say that something is happening fast, a few nights in a tent beats the rest of eternity underneath the rubble of building.