Sadly, The Final Polls Comes Out - and Paperboy's been slacking

[Red Dawn]

Sadly, the final polls are upon us. And for some unknown reason, Paperboy hasn't dutifully posted the final polls.

* Final USAToday/Gallup Poll: Obama 53%, McCain 42%.

* CBS also has another poll out tonight: Obama 54%, McCain 41%

* a weighted average of six daily tracking polls -- has Obama at 51.5% and McCain at 44.2%, a 7.3-point lead for Obama. The lead has increased by small amounts in the last four consecutive Composites.

* Pew Poll Predicts Obama Will Win 52-46



Talking Points Memo | Breaking News and Analysis


It ain't over till its over. All eyes on Pennsylvania. Paperboy said McCain was winning Pennsylvania 53% to 33%, although strangely, I haven't found any credible verification of that poll papertoy was trumpeting.

 

[bk1983]

Sadly, the final polls are upon us. And for some unknown reason, Paperboy hasn't dutifully posted the final polls.

* Final USAToday/Gallup Poll: Obama 53%, McCain 42%.

* CBS also has another poll out tonight: Obama 54%, McCain 41%

* a weighted average of six daily tracking polls -- has Obama at 51.5% and McCain at 44.2%, a 7.3-point lead for Obama. The lead has increased by small amounts in the last four consecutive Composites.

* Pew Poll Predicts Obama Will Win 52-46



Talking Points Memo | Breaking News and Analysis


It ain't over till its over. All eyes on Pennsylvania. Paperboy said McCain was winning Pennsylvania 53% to 33%, although strangely, I haven't found any credible verification of that poll papertoy was trumpeting.

It is a poll where he looks at the numbers then switches places and puts McCain where Obama is sitting. It is the only way he can sleep at night, I really hope he will be ok on Nov.5th because he is really looking desperate to find anything showing mcCain will win. When even GOP insiders express real doubt of a sliver of hope. Not impossible but highley unlikely.

 

[sealybobo]

The negative commercials and preachers telling their congregations might help mccain a little, but mccain has to sweep a bunch of states. He can't lose any of them.

I predict obama loses ohio and wins the presidency anyways.

I just have a bad feeling about ohio because I know ohio. Its like michigan only more conservative with less of a black population.

 

[jschuck12001]

Sadly, the final polls are upon us. And for some unknown reason, Paperboy hasn't dutifully posted the final polls.

* Final USAToday/Gallup Poll: Obama 53%, McCain 42%.

* CBS also has another poll out tonight: Obama 54%, McCain 41%

* a weighted average of six daily tracking polls -- has Obama at 51.5% and McCain at 44.2%, a 7.3-point lead for Obama. The lead has increased by small amounts in the last four consecutive Composites.

* Pew Poll Predicts Obama Will Win 52-46



Talking Points Memo | Breaking News and Analysis


It ain't over till its over. All eyes on Pennsylvania. Paperboy said McCain was winning Pennsylvania 53% to 33%, although strangely, I haven't found any credible verification of that poll papertoy was trumpeting.

Its the state polls we should be watching, the mason dixson state polls in Fl, NC, OH showed Mccain either barely down or barely winning. Its hard to know what the hell is going on with all these damn polls.

 

[DavidS]

Its the state polls we should be watching, the mason dixson state polls in Fl, NC, OH showed Mccain either barely down or barely winning. Its hard to know what the hell is going on with all these damn polls.

FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: House Effects in Action

The new set of battleground state polling from Mason-Dixon provides a terrific working example of what we call "house effects" -- a poll's consistent tendency to lean toward one candidate or another. Throughout this election cycle, we have found that Mason-Dixon's polls lean 2-3 points more toward John McCain than the average of other polls taken in those states at the same time.

Here are the Mason-Dixon polls released within the past 72 hours in eight key battleground states, along with a comparison to our current trendline-adjusted averages:

In all of these states but Florida, Mason-Dixon came in below our average (although in some cases not by much). On balance, their polls were 2.5 points more favorable to McCain than the average -- exactly where our model had pegged Mason-Dixon polls going in.

But! -- you might protest -- maybe these numbers are more favorable to McCain because your averages are out of date, and this election is trending toward McCain!

Well, not really. Because if you compare these polls against the last time Mason-Dixon was in the field in these states, Obama hasn't really lost any ground. (Actually, he's gained a bit, but not any statistically significant amount).

...to make this clear for the nth time, the presence of a house effect does not mean that a pollster is partisan or "biased". Mason-Dixon is a non-partisan pollster. Nor does it mean that a pollster is wrong! Mason-Dixon has a pretty good track record. Their vision of the electorate -- which seems to point toward a narrow Obama electoral victory -- could very easily turn out to be the right one. But it does mean that you need to take these sorts of things into account to make sure that you're making apples-to-apples comparisons.

 

[Missourian]

I think I'll go to bed early Tuesday night. It's going to be a nailbiter for both sides and I don't need the added stress. I've cast my vote...I'll be working the polling places all day Tuesday and I'll have done all I can do.

 

[bk1983]

I think I'll go to bed early Tuesday night. It's going to be a nailbiter for both sides and I don't need the added stress. I've cast my vote...I'll be working the polling places all day Tuesday and I'll have done all I can do.

no shit,lol.. the sooner this election is over the better..

 

[The Paperboy]

Sadly, the final polls are upon us. And for some unknown reason, Paperboy hasn't dutifully posted the final polls.

* Final USAToday/Gallup Poll: Obama 53%, McCain 42%.

* CBS also has another poll out tonight: Obama 54%, McCain 41%

* a weighted average of six daily tracking polls -- has Obama at 51.5% and McCain at 44.2%, a 7.3-point lead for Obama. The lead has increased by small amounts in the last four consecutive Composites.

* Pew Poll Predicts Obama Will Win 52-46



Talking Points Memo | Breaking News and Analysis


It ain't over till its over. All eyes on Pennsylvania. Paperboy said McCain was winning Pennsylvania 53% to 33%, although strangely, I haven't found any credible verification of that poll papertoy was trumpeting.

Great Day!

My football team comes back from sure defeat to win in overtime and then out with the wife to see "Phantom of the Opera" followed by wine and desert at the Cheesecake factory.

Never said McCain was winning PA 53/33. Don't mix up my opinions with links posted to other sites. It's all just info to add to our fun debates.

I'm quite optimistic McCain will pull this thing out but if he doesn't then life goes on.

Life is good. Splurge on it!

 

[DavidS]

I think I'll go to bed early Tuesday night. It's going to be a nailbiter for both sides and I don't need the added stress. I've cast my vote...I'll be working the polling places all day Tuesday and I'll have done all I can do.

Thank you for voting. You're a great American.

I think I have an idea of who you voted for, but it's irrelevant. You did your duty. Hopefully by the time Tuesday is over with, we could have 140 million people just like you... except that 55% of them will vote for someone else.

 

[DavidS]

Great Day!

My football team comes back from sure defeat to win in overtime and then out with the wife to see "Phantom of the Opera" followed by wine and desert at the Cheesecake factory.

Never said McCain was winning PA 53/33. Don't mix up my opinions with links posted to other sites. It's all just info to add to our fun debates.

I'm quite optimistic McCain will pull this thing out but if he doesn't then life goes on.

Life is good. Splurge on it!

Two words:

Trent Dilfer

Or:

Hugh Culvrahouse

 

[The Paperboy]

It is a poll where he looks at the numbers then switches places and puts McCain where Obama is sitting. It is the only way he can sleep at night, I really hope he will be ok on Nov.5th because he is really looking desperate to find anything showing mcCain will win. When even GOP insiders express real doubt of a sliver of hope. Not impossible but highley unlikely.

The poll that was most accurate in 2004 has it a statistical tie: IBD/TIPP.

Don't worry about me on Nov 5th. If Obama wins I will congratulate him and wish him Godspeed.

My life is too much fun to let any one politician ruin it.

 

[DavidS]

no shit,lol.. the sooner this election is over the better..

I think this election has given me an ulcer.

 

[bk1983]

I think this election has given me an ulcer.

I think we should all be rewarded a political science degree, this elelction produced millions of political pundits.lol..

 

[DavidS]

I think we should all be rewarded a political science degree, this elelction produced millions of political pundits.lol..

I've never seen an election like this and we probably never will see an election like this again.... that is unless Obama/Biden win two terms and Biden decides not to run in 2016. Then we do this all over again in 8 years.

 

[Chris]

This election will be over before midnight on Tuesday.

Pennsylvania and Virginia for Obama and McCain is done.

 

[Angel Heart]

no shit,lol.. the sooner this election is over the better..

I think that's the one thing we can all agree on.