Russia is a Super Power: Opinion on The Hill

[rightwinger]

I don't need to 'think', I can read. The USA don't have neither mobile ground missiles, nor naval cruise missiles with nuclear warheads. And yes, I'm pretty sure, that our so called allies won't commit suicide just to retaliate for us.
View attachment 584822

1800 warheads with your name on them
Do you feel lucky?

 

[Silver Cat]

1800 warheads with your name on them
Do you feel lucky?

It's not really important (for the Deterrence Type I) how many warheads are deployed in peace time. What is important:
1) How many nukes will survive after first counter-force strike?
2) How many nukes can intercept the enemy?
3) Is he ready for your retaliation strike?
4) Can he alleviate the consequences of the nuclear strike?
5) What level of losses did he consider as acceptable?

 

[Silver Cat]

So, in the pessimistic scenario:
5) The Russians really consider NATO expansion as an existencial threat, and ready to stop it with the maximal price up to forty million killed.
4) Yes, they can alleviate consequences of the nuclear strike. Their Emercom is great. They have reserves of food for three years for the whole population.
3) Yes, they are ready. Their preparations were ignored by the US administration, so, they even evacuated all unnecessary population from their main cities, and all remaining are ready to shelter.
2) They have proper ABD in Moscow region, that can intercept at least one hundred of incoming warheads. They have AD which can intercept some incoming warheads in atmosphere.
1) To attack Moscow and Saint-Petersburg we have only one SSBN at hard duty (in 15 minutes readiness) and few in readiness time of hours or even days, with less than 72 warheads each.

 

[rightwinger]

It's not really important (for the Deterrence Type I) how many warheads are deployed in peace time. What is important:
1) How many nukes will survive after first counter-force strike?
2) How many nukes can intercept the enemy?
3) Is he ready for your retaliation strike?
4) Can he alleviate the consequences of the nuclear strike?
5) What level of losses did he consider as acceptable?

You overestimate Russia’s ability to destroy our nukes
The US has been preparing for a Russia first strike for over 50 years.

What you will find is that the US has a better capability to land warheads on target with high probability.

Economically, the US is in a better position to survive an attack. Russia would be bombed back to the Stone Age

 

[Silver Cat]

You overestimate Russia’s ability to destroy our nukes
The US has been preparing for a Russia first strike for over 50 years.

What you will find is that the US has a better capability to land warheads on target with high probability.

Economically, the US is in a better position to survive an attack. Russia would be bombed back to the Stone Age

I wish you were right. But the US has been successfully ignoring this possibility for over 50 years (especially 30 last years) talking about impossibility of the calculated nuclear war, MAD, residual fear of war, Nuclear Winter, etc...
Accuracy of the missiles depends on existence of GPS system. And it will be ended in first hours of the war.
Talking about economy is even more crazy. The USA have not actual grain reserves at all.

 

[rightwinger]

I wish you were right. But the US has been successfully ignoring this possibility for over 50 years (especially 30 last years) talking about impossibility of the calculated nuclear war, MAD, residual fear of war, Nuclear Winter, etc...
Accuracy of the missiles depends on existence of GPS system. And it will be ended in first hours of the war.
Talking about economy is even more crazy. The USA don't have actual grain reserves at all.

Our missiles also use inertial navigation to target. We had accurate navigation long before GPS
GPS can be jammed, there is always a backup system.

US technology has always been more advanced than Russia/USSR. Still is

The US also has nuclear equipped allies
You attack them, we join
You attack us, they join
Something Russia lacks

 

[Silver Cat]

Our missiles also use inertial navigation to target. We had accurate navigation long before GPS
GPS can be jammed, there is always a backup system.

Yes. But accuracy without GPS is low.

US technology has always been more advanced than Russia/USSR. Still is

Some technologies - yes. In some the Russians are better.

The US also has nuclear equipped allies
You attack them, we join
You attack us, they join
Something Russia lacks

Actually, Russia has China and DPRK. And China is much more valuable ally than the UK and France together.

 

[rightwinger]

Yes. But accuracy without GPS is low.

But you assume Russian missiles will be accurate enough to wipe out the entire US arsenal

 

[rightwinger]

Yes. But accuracy without GPS is low.

Some technologies - yes. In some the Russians are better.


Actually, Russia has China and DPRK. And China is much more valuable ally than the UK and France together.

China has never trusted Russia
Now more than ever

 

[Silver Cat]

But you assume Russian missiles will be accurate enough to wipe out the entire US arsenal

Yes. They have Glonass system, and their new warheads are individually Navsat-corrected. The USA don't have new warheads at all (except W76-2, of course, but it is not Navsat-corrected, too)

 

[Otis Mayfield]

The author asks the US to realize that Russia is a full-fledged super power.

Reports of Russia’s decline are greatly exaggerated

There seems little doubt, then, that Russia is a great power. But what does this mean for the United States?

thehill.com

Russia has a smaller GDP than Brazil.

Russia should be a huge Norway, but Russia is so poorly managed that it's a huge Mexico.

 

[Silver Cat]

China has never trusted Russia
Now more than ever

It is not about trust. It is about circumstances. In the pessimistic scenarios China attack the USA when they see a good opportunity to attack.

 

[Silver Cat]

Russia has a smaller GDP than Brazil.

Russia should be a huge Norway, but Russia is so poorly managed that it's a huge Mexico.

GDP is cool, but the real values - land, weapon, gold, food, fuel is much more important. Prices in Russia are low (the price of Big Mac in Moscow is $1,8), its GDP (PPP) is a bit less than in Germany (in some years higher than there), sixth place in the world.

List of countries by GDP (PPP) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Bleipriester]

Russia has a smaller GDP than Brazil.

Russia should be a huge Norway, but Russia is so poorly managed that it's a huge Mexico.

GDP 2021.

 

[ESay]

GDP 2021.

And now present this graph showing nominal GDP.

 

[Silver Cat]

My Russian friend (quite pro-West) sent me this picture:

There is the raising pro-war campaign in Russia, and even direct Russian military attack against the USA is not "unthinkable" anymore.

 

[ESay]

My Russian friend (quite pro-West) sent me this picture:
View attachment 585221

There is the raising pro-war campaign in Russia, and even direct Russian military attack against the USA is not "unthinkable" anymore.

It doesn't matter what the laymen think. They will be put before the fact as soon as the boyars will take a decision being appropriate for them.

PS This picture had a joking meaning. It is strange that someone could get it seriously.

 

[Vrenn]

The facts are here, you can´t get around them, this is why all one can do against the Russian military is threatening with sanctions.

Both sides will avoid nuclear fights with the other. Mutual Distruction is on the table. But both Russia and China knows that, although there won't be any winners, the US will fair much better than those two. So what's left? Conventional. And Conventional, both Russia and China will have their asses handed to them in short order (with about a year involved in the "War".

 

[Bleipriester]

And now present this graph showing nominal GDP.

Nominal GDP is not valid. It counts 5,5 $ GDP for a Bic Mac in the US but only 1,7 $ in Russia, although it is the very same product. And economic size is about actual products and services, not how much they cost.

 

[Bleipriester]

Both sides will avoid nuclear fights with the other. Mutual Distruction is on the table. But both Russia and China knows that, although there won't be any winners, the US will fair much better than those two. So what's left? Conventional. And Conventional, both Russia and China will have their asses handed to them in short order (with about a year involved in the "War".

The US, Russia and China will never go to war. And Russia never planed to invade Ukraine.