Terrible OP headline,
Donald H. “Freed” squarely puts you in the Russian camp, which I’m not sure is really where you want to be.
The Western press is not “hiding” what is happening with the gradual changing front lines. In any case this “daily spectator sport,” the cheering on or bemoaning of every advance or retreat of a few hundred feet in this demolished city and “meat grinder” is pretty childish. It misses more important developments.
Among the most important may be … the totally crazy division of Russian military forces in Ukraine into official military and private and even regional warlord units, and the vicious competition for power, resources and “prestige” between them. This seems to indicate that Putin is likely already being sidelined and can no longer effectively maintain cohesion and central discipline in the Russian state.
The Ukrainian nationalist side may be far weaker in numbers than Russia but it seems to have maintained its cohesion much better despite serious losses — in large part because of Western support, Zelensky’s effective leadership & public relations, but also because of the increased popularity of Ukrainian nationalism and anti-Russian sentiment since Putin’s Feb. 2022 invasion.
While for now the only tolerated criticism within Russia comes from the right, the base of groups like Wagner is not so deep or widespread as that of the military and state security organs — which themselves are increasingly distant from the beaten down and politically listless Russian population. The “regular” security forces themselves are internally divided too. But the very existence and tolerance for groups like Wagner, as well as Chechen warlords, shows the danger of a Russian central state breakdown is real.
Of course it is also hard to estimate the longterm durability of the Ukrainian state and military apparatus, or the likelihood of changes in mood among Ukrainians themselves should the war stalemate or should the U.S. slow its aid. Despite war censorship in Ukraine and the outlawing of political parties, the closing of dissident media there, the investigations of “Russian collaborators” etc. — Ukraine seems to have forged in the last 15 months a fairly broad and strong civic and national consciousness, even among many native Russian speakers.
In the Ukrainian army and national guard forces — an essential ingredient right now of “state power” — morale seems to be holding up better than among its Russian counterpart(s), despite big losses of many or even most original core fighters. My guess is that even if they can only make minor advances in their much rumored “Spring Offensive,” they will continue to fight well, toughen themselves, and not break — so long as they have adequate weapons and ammunition.
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www.rt.com
