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Veracity of specific allegations
Russian assistance to the Trump campaign
Main articles:
Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections and
Trump Tower meeting
A
January 6, 2017, intelligence community assessment released by the
Office of the Director of National Intelligence(ODNI) stated that Russian leadership favored the Trump candidacy over Clinton's, and that Putin personally ordered an "influence campaign" to harm Clinton's electoral chances and "undermine public faith in the US democratic process," as well as ordering cyber attacks on the Democratic and Republican parties.
[204]...
Newsweek stated that
"the Dossier's Main finding, that Russia tried to prop up Trump over Clinton, was Confirmed by" this assessment.
[113] ABC News stated that "some of the dossier's broad implications—particularly that Russian President Vladimir Putin launched an operation to boost Trump and sow discord within the U.S. and abroad—now ring true."
[12]
In
The New Yorker, Jane Mayer has stated that the allegation that Trump was favored by the Kremlin, and that they offered Trump's campaign dirt on Clinton,
has Proven True.[10]
In March 2016,
George Papadopoulos, a Trump campaign foreign policy adviser, learned that the Russians had "dirt" on Clinton in the form of thousands of stolen emails. This occurred before the hacking of the DNC computers had become public knowledge.
[206][207] Papadopoulos sent emails about Putin to at least seven Trump campaign officials. Trump national campaign co-chairman
Sam Clovis[208] encouraged Papadopoulos to fly to Russia and meet with agents of the
Russian Foreign Ministry, who reportedly wanted to share "Clinton dirt" with the Trump campaign.
[209][210] When Donald Trump Jr. learned of the offer, he welcomed it by responding: "If it's what you say, I love it..."
[10] Later, on June 9, 2016, a
meeting in Trump Tower was held, ostensibly for representatives from Russia to deliver that dirt on Clinton.
[211][212]
At the
July 2018 summit meeting in Helsinki,
Putin was asked if he had wanted Trump to win the 2016 election. He responded "Yes, I did. Yes, I did. Because he talked about bringing the U.S.-Russia relationship back to normal."
[213]
Kremlin Behind DNC email Hack and Use of WikiLeaks
The Mueller Report Confirmed that the dossier was Correct that the Kremlin was behind the appearance of the DNC e-mails on WikiLeaks, noting that the Trump campaign "showed interest in WikiLeaks's releases of documents and welcomed their potential to damage candidate Clinton."
[167]
'Golden showers' allegation
Regarding the "golden showers" allegation,
Michael Isikoff and
David Corn have stated that Steele's "faith in the sensational sex claim would fade over time.... As for the likelihood of the claim that prostitutes had urinated in Trump's presence, Steele would say to colleagues, 'It's 50–50'."
[24]
According to Comey,
Trump told him on two occasions that it could not have happened because he did not stay overnight in Moscow at the time of the Miss Universe contest. That claim was soon Disproven.[175] According to flight records, Trump was in Moscow for 37 hours. He arrived by private jet in Moscow at around 3 p.m. on Friday, November 8, and spent that night in Moscow.
[177][178] Thomas Roberts, the host of the Miss Universe contest,
confirmed that "Trump was in Moscow for one full night and at least part of another. (November 8–10).
[176] According to flight records,
Keith Schiller's testimony, social media posts, and Trump's close friend,
Aras Agalarov, Trump arrived by private jet on Friday, November 8, going to the Ritz-Carlton hotel and booking into the presidential suite, where the "golden showers" incident is alleged to have occurred.
[10][179]
There were a number of meetings and a lunch that day. Schiller related that a Russian approached them "around lunch-time"
[214] and offered to "send five women to Trump's hotel room that night".
[215] According to "multiple sources", the offer "came from a Russian who was accompanying Emin Agalarov".
[214] Schiller said he didn't take the offer seriously and told the Russian, 'We don't do that type of stuff'."
[215] That evening Trump attended a birthday party for Aras Agalarov.
[216][215]They returned to the hotel after the party. Schiller testified that, "On their way up to Trump's hotel room that night, [he told Trump] about the offer and Trump laughed it off".
[214] He then accompanied Trump to his room, stayed outside the door for a few minutes, and then left.
[214] According to one source, Schiller "could not say for sure what happened during the remainder of the night."
[217] British music publicist
Rob Goldstone believes it was "unlikely" that Trump used prostitutes while he was in Moscow. He has stated that he accompanied Trump at the 2013 Miss Universe pageant, and said that Trump was in Moscow for 36 hours, and that he was with Trump for 31 out of those 36 hours.
[177]
The next day, Facebook posts showed he was at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel.
[216] That evening he attended the Miss Universe pageant, followed by an after party. He then returned to his hotel, packed, and flew back to the United States.
[178]
Republican position on Russian conflict with Ukraine and related sanctions
The dossier alleges that "the Trump campaign agreed to minimize US opposition to Russia's incursions into Ukraine".
[218]Harding considers
this allegation to have been Confirmed by the actions of the Trump campaign: "This is precisely what happened at the Republican National Convention last July, when language on the US's commitment to Ukraine was mysteriously softened."[70]
The Washington Post reported that "the Trump campaign orchestrated a set of events" in July 2016 "to soften the language of an amendment to the Republican Party's draft policy on Ukraine."
[219] In July 2016, the
Republican National Convention did make changes to the Republican Party's platform on Ukraine: initially the platform proposed providing "lethal weapons" to Ukraine, but the line was changed to "appropriate assistance".
NPR reported, "Diana Denman, a Republican delegate who supported arming U.S. allies in Ukraine, has told people that
Trump aide J.D. Gordon said at the Republican Convention in 2016 that Trump directed him to support weakening that position in the official platform."[220] J. D. Gordon, who was one of Trump's national security advisers during the campaign, said that he had advocated for changing language because that reflected what Trump had said.
[150][221] Although the Trump team denied any role in softening the language, Denman confirmed that the change "definitely came from Trump staffers".
[222]
Kyle Cheney sees evidence that the change was "on the campaign's radar" because Carter Page congratulated campaign members in an email the day after the platform amendment: "As for the Ukraine amendment, excellent work."
[223] Paul Manafort falsely said that the change "absolutely did not come from the Trump campaign".
[224] Trump told
George Stephanopoulos that people in his campaign were responsible for changing the GOP's platform stance on Ukraine, but that he was not personally involved.
[225]
Trump had formerly taken a hard line on Ukraine. He initially denounced Russia's annexation of Crimea as a "land grab" that "should never have happened", and called for a firmer U.S. response, saying "We should definitely be strong. We should definitely do sanctions."
But after hiring Manafort his approach changed; he said he might recognize Crimea as Russian territory and might lift the sanctions against Russia.
[226]
Relations with Europe and NATO
Vladimir Putin (2017)
The dossier alleges that as part of a
quid pro quo agreement, "the TRUMP team had agreed… to raise US/NATO defense commitments in the Baltics and Eastern Europe to deflect attention away from Ukraine, a priority for PUTIN who needed to cauterise the subject."
[121] Aiko Stevenson, writing in
The Huffington Post, noted that some of
Trump's actions seem to align with "Putin's wish list", which "includes lifting sanctions on Russia, turning a blind eye towards its aggressive efforts in the Ukraine, and creating a divisive rift amongst western allies."[227] During the campaign Trump "called Nato, the centrepiece of Transatlantic security 'obsolete', championed the disintegration of the EU, and said that he is open to lifting sanctions on Moscow."
[227] Harding adds that Trump repeatedly "questioned whether US allies were paying enough into Nato coffers."
[70] Jeff Stein, writing in
Newsweek, described how "Trump's repeated attacks on NATO have...frustrated...allies ...[and] raised questions as to whether the president has been duped into facilitating Putin's long-range objective of undermining the European Union."
[228] Trump's appearances at meetings with allies, including NATO and G7, have frequently been antagonistic; according to the
Los Angeles Times, "The president's posture toward close allies has been increasingly and remarkably confrontational this year, especially in comparison to his more conciliatory approach to adversaries, including Russia and North Korea."
[229]
Lifting of sanctions
The dossier says that Page, claiming to speak with Trump's authority, had confirmed that Trump would lift the existing sanctions against Russia if he were elected president.
[115] On December 29, 2016, during the transition period between the election and the inauguration,
National Security Advisor designate Flynn spoke to Russian Ambassador Sergei Kislyak, urging him not to retaliate for newly imposed sanctions; the Russians took his advice and did not retaliate.[230]
Within days after the inauguration, new Trump administration officials ordered State Department staffers to develop proposals for immediately revoking the economic and other sanctions.[231] One retired diplomat later said, "What was troubling about these stories is that suddenly I was hearing that we were preparing to rescind sanctions in exchange for, well, nothing."
[232] The staffers alerted Congressional allies who took steps to codify the sanctions into law. The attempt to overturn the sanctions was abandoned after Flynn's conversation was revealed and Flynn resigned.
[231][131] In August 2017, Congress passed a bipartisan bill to impose new sanctions on Russia. Trump reluctantly signed the bill, but then refused to implement it.
[233] After Trump hired Manafort, his approach toward Ukraine changed; he said he might recognize Crimea as Russian territory and might lift the sanctions against Russia.
[226]
Among those sanctioned were Russian oligarchs like
Oleg Deripaska, "who is linked to Paul Manafort," parliament member
Konstantin Kosachev, banker
Aleksandr Torshin, and Putin's son-in-law. Preparation for the sanctions started already before Trump took office.
[234] In January 2019, Trump's Treasury Department lifted the sanctions on companies formerly controlled by Deripaska. Sanctions on Deripaska himself remained in effect.
[235]
Spy withdrawn from Russian embassy
The dossier alleges that a "Russian diplomat Mikhail KULAGIN [
sic]" participated in US election meddling, and was recalled to Moscow because Kremlin was concerned that his role in the meddling would be exposed. The BBC later reported that US officials in 2016 had identified Russian diplomat Mikhail Kalugin as a spy and that he was under surveillance,
thus "Verifying" a key claim in the dossier.[120] Kalugin was the head of the economics section at the Russian embassy. He returned to Russia in August 2016.
[122] McClatchy reported that the FBI was investigating whether Kalugin played a role in the election interference. Kalugin has denied the allegations.
[122][236]
Page met with Rosneft officials
Jane Mayer said that this part of the dossier seems true, even if the name of an official may have been wrong. Page's congressional testimony confirmed he held secret meetings with top Moscow and Rosneft officials, including talks about a payoff: "When Page was asked if a Rosneft executive had offered him a 'potential sale of a significant percentage of Rosneft,' Page said, 'He may have briefly mentioned it'."
[10]
On November 2, 2017, Page appeared before the
House Intelligence Committee (HPSCI) which is investigating Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections. In July 2016, Page made a five-day trip to Moscow,
[237] but, according to his testimony, before leaving he informed
Jeff Sessions,
J. D. Gordon,
Hope Hicks, and
Corey Lewandowski, Trump's campaign manager, of the planned trip to Russia, and Lewandowski approved the trip, responding: "If you'd like to go on your own, not affiliated with the campaign, you know, that's fine."
[147][171] In his testimony, Page admitted he met with high ranking Kremlin officials. Previously, Page had denied meeting any Russian officials during the July trip. His comments appeared to corroborate portions of the dossier.
[172][173] Newsweek has listed the claim about Page meeting with Rosneft officials as "verified".
[238]
Use of Botnets and porn traffic by hackers
The accusation that Aleksej Gubarev's "XBT/Webzilla and its affiliates had been using
botnets and porn traffic to transmit viruses, plant bugs, steal data and conduct 'altering operations' against the Democratic Party leadership"
[151] has been Proven True, due to evidence found during the
discovery process in the defamation suit(s) Gubarev had filed against others.
[239][240][241]
The report by
FTI Consulting stated:
Mr. Gubarev's "companies have provided gateways to the internet for cybercriminals and Russian state-sponsored actors to launch and control large scale malware campaigns over the past decade," the report concluded. "Gubarev and other XBT executives do not appear to actively prevent cybercriminals from using their infrastructure."
[239]
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