I don't know who the Republican nominee will be. It is far to early to tell. Whomever steps up will have to be a real fiscal conservative though. The country can't take another big spender.
At any rate, come 2012 the economy will be in such a shambles that an open faced ham sandwich could beat Obama. I see Obama going the way of Jimmy Carter - a miserable, disgraced failure. Maybe after he is shown the door he'll open a peanut farm? It would be his first experience with capitalism.
The 1980 election was MUCH closer than it should have been.. My point is that incumbents don't lose very easily.
Carter lost because he mismanaged the economy and was weak with the hostage situation in Iran. His sweater talks didn't help either.
Obama will lose because he is a one man economic train wreck. An overwhelming majority of Americans believe that the "stimulus" was a waste of money and that Obama is spending us into OBLIVION. That is going to be very difficult to overcome.
Also, these days we have access to every single broken promise that Obama has made. When he is confronted with all his lies and broken promise he'll be - but but but but but, umm umm umm umm ahhh ahh ahhhing - all over himself. Times have changed. The mood of the country has changed. People are pissed. He's in for a serious battle.