Pollster Scott Rasmussen has the best solution to the party id problem. He weights his polls to reflect the unweighted party identification of the previous three weeks, so he has a dynamic model which adjusts for sampling error but still takes account of gradual changes in the electorateÂ’s partisan preferences.
Finally, with Obama below 50% of the vote in most swing states, he is hitting up against a glass ceiling in the high 40s. He canÂ’t get past it except in heavily Democratic states like New York or California. The first time Obama breaks 50 will not be on Election Day. Either he consistently polls above 50% of the vote or he wonÂ’t ever get there in the actual vote.
So hereÂ’s where the race really stands today based on RasmussenÂ’s polling:
• Romney leads decisively in all states McCain carried (173 electoral votes).
• Romney is more than ten points ahead in Indiana – which Obama carried. (11 electoral votes)
• Romney leads Obama in the following states the president carried in 2008: Iowa (44-47) North Carolina (45-51), Colorado (45-47), and New Hampshire (45-48). He’ll probably win them all. (34 electoral votes).
This comes to 218 of the 270 Romney needs. ButÂ…
• Obama is below 50% of the vote in a handful of key swing states and leads Romney by razor thin margins in each one. All these states will go for Romney unless and until Obama can show polling support of 50% of the vote:
• Obama leads in Ohio (47-46) and Virginia (49-48) by only 1 point (31 electoral votes)
• Obama leads in Florida (48-460) and Nevada (47-45) by only 2 points (35 electoral votes)
If Romney carries Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, he wins. And other states are in play.
• Obama leads in Wisconsin (49-46) by only 3 points (10 electoral votes)
• Obama’s lead in Michigan is down to four points according to a recent statewide poll
• Obama is only getting 51% of the vote in Pennsylvania and 53% in New Jersey. And don’t count out New Mexico.
It would be accurate to describe the race now as tied. But Romney has the edge because:
• The incumbent is under 50% in key states and nationally. He will probably lose any state where he is below 50% of the vote.
• The Republican enthusiasm and likelihood of voting is higher
• The GOP field organization is better.
This is the first election where you can just about bet 2 out of 3 times that who they are you'll know how they'll vote. At least that is how it stands today.
Obama leads with blacks, Hispanics, and single women, while Romney leads with just about everyone else including independents. It all comes down to turnout and Romney has enthusiasm on his side and a great field organization.
The more informed a voter is the more they lean toward Romney.
Despite what the MSM is saying Romney is looking pretty good. He'd love to be in a better position but that only means that the race will be closer than he would like.
So just like Obama's refusal to personally admit that al Qaeda was involved in the attack on our Libyan consulate the MSM refuses to tell us the truth about how the election is going. The states that always go for Democrats are still in Obama's camp but the margins aren't what it used to be, and he barely leads in Ohio, Florida, Virginia which if Romney wins them the election is his. The debates will decide this election and basically this is Obama's race to lose. Judging by how well Romney did in the Republican debates one trip up and Obama is toast, and Romney has plenty of ammo to throw at him. Ryan will hand Biden his ass so this thing is close but I think Romney/Ryan will pull away after the first debate regardless how much the media tries to prevent this.
Currently Romney leads with Independents by 14 points. The electorate is divided down the middle so this will make a huge difference. Incumbency used to be an advantage but that is slowly disappearing as it usually does historically. If Obama's approval ratings stay below 50% he will lose.
Links
Romney Pulls Ahead at DickMorris.com
Electoral College Prediction Model Points To A Mitt Romney Win In 2012
