If you don't believe me maybe you'll believe Goldman Sachs
The U.S. economy is headed into a period of noticeably slower growth thanks to the tariff impact on inflation and, by consequence, consumer spending, according to Goldman Sachs.
Economists at the Wall Street firm expect gross domestic product to rise at just a 1.1% annual pace through 2025
“Even a one-time price increase will eat into real income, at a time when consumer spending trends already look shaky,”
Like the $600 tariff my customer just paid on a $12,000 order
GDP fell at a 0.5% annualized pace in the first quarter, with consumer spending up just 0.5%.
the biggest wild card is
President Donald Trump’s tariffs, with Goldman gaming out multiple scenarios depending on how negotiations progress.
In the most likely case, Hatzius said so-called reciprocal tariffs likely will hit an effective rate of 15%, up from the previous forecast of 10%, taking the average effective tariff rate up 14 percentage points this year and another 3 percentage points in 2026.
So 8.5% is low. It's going to get WORSE!
As a result, Goldman sees inflation as measured by the Fed’s preferred
personal consumption expenditures price index to hit 3.3% for 2025, falling to 2.7% next year and 2.4% in 2027.
Those assumptions help put the firm’s projected recession risk at 30%, about double the normal level.
From the Fed’s perspective, Goldman expects policymakers to continue their wait-and-see approach if larger tariffs come into place. At the same time, the threat to employment and supply chains from larger-than-expected tariffs “would likely warrant more aggressive rate cuts than we currently expect,” Goldman economists said in a separate note.