Red Georgia U.S. Senate Seat Going BLUE!

[nodoginnafight]

And what is the influence polls are trying to accomplish? What was Rasmussen trying to influence when their last poll in 2012 showed Romney winning?

If they manipulated that poll for the purpose of influence, what were they trying to accomplish?

they were trying to get some people to stay home and others to vote--------are you really so naive that you had to ask that question?

Ok, so NPR, public radio, whose last poll also had Romney winning by a point, according to you then were also trying to influence the election.

So NPR and Rasmussen were both trying to influence the 2012 election in a certain direction by manipulating their polls to show Romney winning by a point.

Which direction were they both trying to influence the election?

Sorry to butt in - I know that no one was talking to me. But If I may I'd like to offer my two cents.

It appears to me that the polls that showed Romney ahead by a point, were all polls of "likely voters." That requires a bit of manipulation in that pollsters have to keep their sample demographics in line with their opinion as to what the makeup of the voting public will be.
Prior to the 2012 election Republicans were taking great issue with these likely voter models and I believe they were successful in convincing a lot of pollsters that the electorate was going to be a lot more Republican than it actually was.

Just MHO

 

[nodoginnafight]

Georgia has only elected 4 Republican US Senators and 3 Republican Governors in the last 226 years.

And all of those in the last 20 or 30 years.

Pulling 226 years of data and pretending that reflects what Georgia is today is .... well .... not very accurate.

Georgia has been a little more purple than neighbors Alabama and Tennessee ... but that's a matter of degree.

There is not a Democrat who holds a statewide office in the state of Georgia today.

So let's keep it real. It would be a surprise.

Indeed. Since 1984, GA is now an 8 for 9 GOP state in presidential politics. The Reagan revolution made for some big changes in GA, but Sam Nunn was a Democratic Senator from the Peach state who served during this time. The Nunns and the Carters are arguably the two best known Democratic pol families in GA at this time.

Oh yeah - agreed.
But we've seen that in recent times - the state has been closer than some in the south - but still pretty consistently Republican. Conventional wisdom would say that in this climate today, that should swing even more Republican by just a bit.

But yes, Nunn in the senate race and Carter in the Governor's race are unusually strong democratic candidates.

 

[candycorn]

The Democrats are looking good in the U.S. Senate race with Michelle Nunn doing great in the peach state of Georgia. Another great race, in Kentucky is also looking quite good for the Democrats that are pushing Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell aside.

Democrats Poised To Flip Georgia's Senate Seat As Michelle Nunn Holds Commanding Lead

I'll believe it when I see it but the signs look great.

 

[Statistikhengst]

The Democrats are looking good in the U.S. Senate race with Michelle Nunn doing great in the peach state of Georgia. Another great race, in Kentucky is also looking quite good for the Democrats that are pushing Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell aside.

Democrats Poised To Flip Georgia's Senate Seat As Michelle Nunn Holds Commanding Lead

I'll believe it when I see it but the signs look great.

The real race begins once the runoff is decided, but forget not, in the time that the GOPers have been ripping each other apart, Michelle Nunn has had time to stock up on her financial election warchest. This is a luxury that very few Democrats will enjoy in this year.

Alone the fact that this race may be a nail-biter in Georgia requires the GOP to sink funds into a state that the GOP usually considers to be relatively safe territory.

If both Nunn and Lundgren win in GA and KY, respectively, then the GOP must pick up 8 seats instead of just 6. It's doable, but considerably more difficult for the GOP then to take the Senate.

 

[Statistikhengst]

they were trying to get some people to stay home and others to vote--------are you really so naive that you had to ask that question?

Ok, so NPR, public radio, whose last poll also had Romney winning by a point, according to you then were also trying to influence the election.

So NPR and Rasmussen were both trying to influence the 2012 election in a certain direction by manipulating their polls to show Romney winning by a point.

Which direction were they both trying to influence the election?

Sorry to butt in - I know that no one was talking to me. But If I may I'd like to offer my two cents.

It appears to me that the polls that showed Romney ahead by a point, were all polls of "likely voters." That requires a bit of manipulation in that pollsters have to keep their sample demographics in line with their opinion as to what the makeup of the voting public will be.
Prior to the 2012 election Republicans were taking great issue with these likely voter models and I believe they were successful in convincing a lot of pollsters that the electorate was going to be a lot more Republican than it actually was.

Just MHO

The best prediction DNA from a polling gene-pool has both RV and LV data, for the truth usually lies somewhere in the middle.

But even, so, that doesn't explain a Romney +1 in end-polling when Obama won by +4. All of those polls were off by at least 5 points. No pollster wants to be so far off.
So, a lot of models were definitely off and in almost every case, it was the Latino vote that was falsely calculated, just as it was falsely calculated in 2010.

 

[nodoginnafight]

Ok, so NPR, public radio, whose last poll also had Romney winning by a point, according to you then were also trying to influence the election.

So NPR and Rasmussen were both trying to influence the 2012 election in a certain direction by manipulating their polls to show Romney winning by a point.

Which direction were they both trying to influence the election?

Sorry to butt in - I know that no one was talking to me. But If I may I'd like to offer my two cents.

It appears to me that the polls that showed Romney ahead by a point, were all polls of "likely voters." That requires a bit of manipulation in that pollsters have to keep their sample demographics in line with their opinion as to what the makeup of the voting public will be.
Prior to the 2012 election Republicans were taking great issue with these likely voter models and I believe they were successful in convincing a lot of pollsters that the electorate was going to be a lot more Republican than it actually was.

Just MHO

The best prediction DNA from a polling gene-pool has both RV and LV data, for the truth usually lies somewhere in the middle.

But even, so, that doesn't explain a Romney +1 in end-polling when Obama won by +4. All of those polls were off by at least 5 points. No pollster wants to be so far off.
So, a lot of models were definitely off and in almost every case, it was the Latino vote that was falsely calculated, just as it was falsely calculated in 2010.

Well, just looking at 2012, the "registered voters" polls seemed to be a lot more accurate than most of the the "likely voter" polls. Maybe many of the pollsters were just falling victim to over-thinking it or maybe the GOP was successful in their attempts to sway pollsters into re-jiggering their likely voter models.

Rasmussen - for example - blamed their poor showing in 2012 on "miscalculating the electorate." And since Scott Rasmussen left the company last year - their polls haven't leaned as far to the right as in the past. Was it an ideological bent that led to the over-representation or was it flawed model that led to the appearance of an ideological leaning? I have my ideas but nothing concrete.

 

[PoliticalTorch]

And for the record, citing Politics USA is not very convincing. They are a left leaning source who would do anything to spin the polling data.

What's your evidence of that?

Just citing a left leaning outlet should be proof enough.

Then that would be the equivalent of citing a right leaning outlet as well and that it too shouldn't be believed for all of you who present data from those sources.

This bears repeating. Did you honestly expect for Fox or some similar place to carry this story with pictures, etc. when it shows Democrats are winning the Senate races? However, have you noticed or looked at the links PoliticusUSA uses in most all of their stories to support what they're writing? Whenever you doubt something, click on the link they provide and then see that that is how it actually is. So, for those who think that PoliticusUSA can't be believed, Think Again! It is a great source for political news that Conservatives would be afraid to put out as it would give great credit to the Democrats. End of story.

 

[PoliticalTorch]

politicaltorch should be changed to Politicalhack

Ah, Staph.infection, when you start talking that way I know I am really getting you and others right where you live! Thanks for your de facto vote of confidence in me!

 

[Dayton3]

The Democrat in question is the daughter of long time former Senator Sam Nunn. Sam Nunn was one of the most pro defense, hawkish Democrats in the Senate in the 1980s.

 

[Pete7469]

The Democrat in question is the daughter of long time former Senator Sam Nunn. Sam Nunn was one of the most pro defense, hawkish Democrats in the Senate in the 1980s.

Democrooks used to be pretty rabidly anti-communist too.

 

[Papageorgio]

I really don't put much weight in a poll in July before a Republican primary that shows a Democrat winning in November. Some people need to cling to every positive when things look bad.

 

[CaféAuLait]

The Democrats are looking good in the U.S. Senate race with Michelle Nunn doing great in the peach state of Georgia. Another great race, in Kentucky is also looking quite good for the Democrats that are pushing Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell aside.

Democrats Poised To Flip Georgia's Senate Seat As Michelle Nunn Holds Commanding Lead

Isn't this the same millionaire who rails against tax loop holes for the rich, but has an average effective tax rate of 13 percent? Yes, that's her.

 

[initforme]

Georgia is still fighting the civil war is it not? Work ethic kinda slowwwwws way down there.

 

[Pete7469]

Georgia is still fighting the civil war is it not? Work ethic kinda slowwwwws way down there.

Yeah...

That's why industries are leaving unionized northern states and moving south or out of the country entirely. They don't feel worthy to exploit the "work ethic" the unionized northern workers have.

 

[TemplarKormac]

And then David Purdue wins. Nunn had a chance against Kingston, but not against Perdue. And since Kingston was a champ, he decided to concede and help out Perdue. That's 240,000 more votes Perdue can count on come November. Nunn is toast now. And this is what Stat gets for relying on one poll, or hoping for a Kingston victory.

 

[JoeB131]

Georgia is still fighting the civil war is it not? Work ethic kinda slowwwwws way down there.

Yeah...

That's why industries are leaving unionized northern states and moving south or out of the country entirely. They don't feel worthy to exploit the "work ethic" the unionized northern workers have.

Yup. I deal with a plant that we outsourced some of our product to in the South.

They are frequently late on product, parts are made wrong. missing components. I'd love to fire them but can't because we signed a contract.

Now here's the thing. If I am driving down the road in a chunk of metal and plastic going at 65 miles an hour powered by a flammable liquid, I really want the guy who put that together to be happy about his job and having been well-paid for his time and effort.

I don't want him to be an underpaid Cleetus who took a job at the auto plant because it was a better job than Possum Catcher.

 

[JoeB131]

And then David Purdue wins. Nunn had a chance against Kingston, but not against Perdue. And since Kingston was a champ, he decided to concede and help out Perdue. That's 240,000 more votes Perdue can count on come November. Nunn is toast now. And this is what Stat gets for relying on one poll, or hoping for a Kingston victory.

Landmark and Ratmuffin both show Nunn leading Perdue.

And it's only a matter of time before he finds a way to put an inappropriate adjective in front of the word "Rape" to appease the anti-choice nutters.

 

[Statistikhengst]

And then David Purdue wins. Nunn had a chance against Kingston, but not against Perdue. And since Kingston was a champ, he decided to concede and help out Perdue. That's 240,000 more votes Perdue can count on come November. Nunn is toast now. And this is what Stat gets for relying on one poll, or hoping for a Kingston victory.

I was not "hoping" for anything.

Nunn is not "toast" - the Fall campaign has not even begun.

I see that you have really honed your trolling skills. All that time in the basement is paying off, what?

 

[JimH52]

Who in the world is Michelle Nunn?

Aha! I see you didn't read the story or you would know. She is the Democratic challenger in the Georgia U.S. Senate race who is trouncing the two Republicans vying for the Senate seat in Georgia. For a Democrat, she is doing phenomenonally well in red Georgia!

She is also the daughter of one of the true moderate Democrats that served in Congress, Sam Nunn. He is the only Democrat that I have had republican friends tell me they would vote for. She has a very good chance of winning in November.

Give the GOP a gun and they will usually shoot themselves somewhere....

 

[francoHFW]

The Democrat in question is the daughter of long time former Senator Sam Nunn. Sam Nunn was one of the most pro defense, hawkish Democrats in the Senate in the 1980s.

Democrooks used to be pretty rabidly anti-communist too.

The only thing that's changed is Fox Noise etc brainwashing ignorant GOP voters...