This is extremely disjointed. Please learn how to compose a paragraph to state your beliefs.
Record Cold In Australia
- Thread starter Sunsettommy
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The point of it all was that NOTHING in your excerpts supported your contentions, several points were made of atmospheric changes affecting the ocean and studies were named that clearly credit orbital forcing with initialting the glacial-interglacial cycle.
Except for all the papers I provided that said it did. Here's another one.
As I just pointed out, this is NOT talking about the glacial-interglacial cycle. NOTHING you have posted has stated, suggested or even hinted that changes in ocean currents are responsible for the glacial-interglacial cycle.
The mechanism is the exact same. Which is also the mechanism for warming and cooling trends. The ocean controls the climate of the planet, dummy.
Your failings at logic are stunning.
If what you contend were a position that even a few scientists held, you should be able to find a reference source that says so. Yet despite your numerous attempts, you have not found a single one. Why are you unable to understand what that means?
Says the guy who ignores....
...direct evidence for the oceanās persistent, central role in abrupt glacial climate change.
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126...6472541199F70A4C98A6%40AdobeOrg|TS=1723213472
Funny how politi-crick has no scientific papers arguing against the ...direct evidence for the oceanās persistent, central role in abrupt glacial climate change.
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126...6472541199F70A4C98A6%40AdobeOrg|TS=1723213472
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126...6472541199F70A4C98A6%40AdobeOrg|TS=1723213472
I have provided links to seven different papers (and there are many more) CLEARLY stating that the glacial-interglacial cycle is driven by orbital forcing. Yet ding simply ignores these points. This is the ignoring real evidence I noted elsewhere. He has put up links to a number of papers which he claims support his contentions, but as I have demonstrated, they do not. He has repeatedly lied and mischaracterized my position and what I have and have not stated here. I have not brought a single word of politics to this particular debate. In short, ding is an ignorant, irrational liar and I'm a fool to waste my time arguing with him.
The ocean drives the climate of the planet. Say it with me.
I trust the majority opinion of the world's scientists. Say it with me.
I don't. I think they are fraudulent.
For the last 3 million years the data shows the planet cools when the northern hemisphere glaciates and the planet warms when the northern hemisphere deglaciates. There is physical evidence that shows ocean currents are responsible for the northern hemisphere glaciating and deglaciating.
Do you have any evidence of that? And, by "that" I mean that they are ALL fraudulent, because that is what would be required.
But no evidence that ocean currents changed the Earth's temperature; no evidence that ocean currents are responsible for the glacial-interglacial cycle; no evidence that ocean currents are responsible for the warming of the past 150 years.
The evidence is their dishonest reporting of the GHG effect of CO2, their ignoring the ocean's role in the planet's climate, their dishonest argument that orbital forcing is cooling the planet while not including it in their reports and showing the sun actually warming the planet.
There is tons of evidence for ocean currents being responsible for glacial and interglacial temperature changes. You seem to be hung up on initiating glacial and interglacial events while ignoring the overwhelming evidence for abrupt temperature swings of 5 to 8C.
You have provided us NOTHING suggesting that the reporting of the GHG effect of CO2 is dishonest.
As your own source's have shown, the ocean's role in the planet's climate has been widely studied. They simply haven't found what you think they should have found.
The chartered purpose of the IPCC is the assess the science concerning the possible warming of the planet from human emission of greenhouse gases.
From AR6, WGI
"By the early 20th century, cyclical changes in insolation due to the interacting periodicities of orbital eccentricity, axial tilt and axial precession had been hypothesized as a chief pacemaker of ice age ā interglacial cycles on multi-millennial time scales (Milankovitch, 1920). Paleoclimate information derived from marine sediment provides quantitative estimates of past temperature, ice volume and sea level over millions of years (Figure 1.5; Emiliani, 1955; Shackleton and Opdyke, 1973; Siddall et al., 2003; Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005; Past Interglacials Working Group of PAGES, 2016). These estimates have bolstered the orbital cycles hypothesis (Hays et al., 1976; Berger, 1977, 1978). However, paleoclimatology of multi-million to billion-year periods reveals that CH4, CO2, continental drift, silicate rock weathering and other factors played a greater role than orbital cycles in climate changes during ice-free āhothouseā periods of Earthās distant past (Frakes et al., 1992; Bowen et al., 2015; Zeebe et al., 2016)."
2.2.1 Solar and Orbital Forcing
The AR5 assessed solar variability over multiple time scales, concluding that total solar irradiance (TSI) multi-millennial fluctuations over the past 9 kyr were <1 W mā2, but with no assessment of confidence provided. For multi-decadal to centennial variability over the last millennium, AR5 emphasized reconstructions of TSI that show little change (<0.1%) since the Maunder Minimum (1645ā1715) when solar activity was particularly low, again without providing a confidence level. The AR5 further concluded that the best estimate of radiative forcing due to TSI changes for the period 1750ā2011 was 0.05ā0.10 W mā2 (medium confidence), and that TSI very likely changed by ā0.04 [ā0.08 to 0.00] W mā2 between 1986 and 2008. Potential solar influences on climate due to feedbacks arising from interactions with galactic cosmic rays are assessed in Section 7.3.4.5.
Slow periodic changes in the Earthās orbit around the Sun mainly cause variations in seasonal and latitudinal receipt of incoming solar radiation. Precise calculations of orbital variations are available for tens of millions of years (Berger and Loutre, 1991; Laskar et al., 2011). The range of insolation averaged over boreal summer at 65Ā°N was about 83 W mā2 during the past million years, and 3.2 W mā2 during the past millennium, but there was no substantial effect upon global average radiative forcing (0.02 W mā2 during the past millennium).
A new reconstruction of solar irradiance extends back 9 kyr based upon updated cosmogenic isotope datasets and improved models for production and deposition of cosmogenic nuclides (Poluianov et al., 2016), and shows that solar activity during the second half of the 20th century was in the upper decile of the range. TSI features millennial-scale changes with typical magnitudes of 1.5 [1.4 to 2.1] W mā2 (C.-J. Wu et al., 2018). Although stronger variations in the deeper past cannot be ruled out completely (Egorova et al., 2018; Reinhold et al., 2019), there is no indication of such changes having happened over the last 9 kyr.
Recent estimates of TSI and spectral solar irradiance (SSI) for the past millennium are based upon updated irradiance models (e.g., Egorova et al., 2018; C.-J. Wu et al., 2018) and employ updated and revised direct sunspot observations over the last three centuries (Clette et al., 2014; Chatzistergos et al., 2017) as well as records of sunspot numbers reconstructed from cosmogenic isotope data prior to this (Usoskin et al., 2016). These reconstructed TSI time series (Figure 2.2a) feature little variation in TSI averaged over the past millennium. The TSI between the Maunder Minimum (1645ā1715) and second half of the 20th century increased by 0.7ā2.7 W mā2 (Jungclaus et al., 2017; Egorova et al., 2018; Lean, 2018; C.-J. Wu et al., 2018; Lockwood and Ball, 2020; Yeo et al., 2020). This TSI increase implies a change in ERF of 0.09ā0.35 W mā2 (Section 7.3.4.4).
Estimation of TSI changes since 1900 (Figure 2.2b) has further strengthened, and confirms a small (less than about 0.1 W mā2) contribution to global climate forcing (Section 7.3.4.4). New reconstructions of TSI over the 20th century (Lean, 2018; C.-J. Wu et al., 2018) support previous results that the TSI averaged over the solar cycle very likely increased during the first seven decades of the 20th century and decreased thereafter (Figure 2.2b). TSI did not change significantly between 1986 and 2019. Improved insights (Krivova et al., 2006; Yeo et al., 2015, 2017; Coddington et al., 2016) show that variability in the 200ā400 nm UV range was greater than previously assumed. Building on these results, the forcing proposed by Matthes et al. (2017) has a 16% stronger contribution to TSI variability in this wavelength range compared to the forcing used in the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5).
To conclude, solar activity since the late 19th century was relatively high but not exceptional in the context of the past 9 kyr (high confidence). The associated global mean ERF is in the range of ā0.06 to +0.08 W mā2 (Section 7.3.4.4).
Within the well-studied mid-Pliocene Warm Period (MPWP, also called the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period, 3.3ā3.0 Ma), the interglacial period KM5c (3.212ā3.187 Ma) has become a focus of research because its orbital configuration, and therefore insolation forcing, was similar to present (global mean insolation = ā0.022 W mā2 relative to modern; Haywood et al., 2013), allowing for the climatic state associated with relatively high atmospheric CO2 to be assessed with fewer confounding variables.
Emile-Geay, J. et al., 2016: Links between tropical Pacific seasonal, interannual
and orbital variability during the Holocene. Nature Geoscience, 9, 168,
doi:10.1038/ngeo2608.
Laskar, J., A. Fienga, M. Gastineau, and H. Manche, 2011: La2010: a new
orbital solution for the long-term motion of the Earth. Astronomy &
Astrophysics, 532, A89, doi:10.1051/0004-6361/201116836.
Loulergue, L. et al., 2008: Orbital and millennial-scale features of atmospheric
CH4 over the past 800,000 years. Nature, 453, 383, doi:10.1038/nature06950.
Mollier-Vogel, E., G. Leduc, T. Bƶschen, P. Martinez, and R.R. Schneider, 2013:
Rainfall response to orbital and millennial forcing in northern Peru over
the last 18ka. Quaternary Science Reviews, 76, 29ā38, doi:10.1016/j.
quascirev.2013.06.021.
These were from the first 12 of 95 appearances of the term "orbital" in The Physical Science Basis. I can carry on if you'd like.
I concentrate on the glacial-interglacial cycle because it is that for which you claimed ocean current changes are responsible for (in addition to the curent warming of the past 150 years). You keep trying to throw this off into D-Os and Heinrich events. You should have learned a L-O-O-O-O-O-N-G time ago to give it up when there's nothing at the end of the tunnel but the end of the tunnel.
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Have changes in ocean currents resulted in abrupt climate changes?
How do slow periodic changes in the Earthās orbit around the Sun cause abrupt climate changes?
I am claiming that changes in the how the ocean distributes heat causes climate changes up to and including abrupt climate changes.
Only if you ignore my complaint about the IPCC's lack of transparency about the feedback from their models being 3.5 times the GHG effect of CO2. Or lack of including the climate history of the planet transitioning from a greenhouse planet to an icehouse planet. Or a discussion on the climate fluctuations of the past 3 million years, Or lack of discussing how the ocean controls the climate of the planet. Or not including dissenting opinions in their reports. Or assuming all warming must be from an incremental 120 ppm of CO2 when the geologic record is littered with natural warming and cooling trends. Sure.
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Lie. You claimed that changing ocean currents were responsible for the glacial-interglacial cycle. You've also claimed that changing ocean currents are responsible for the warming of the past 150 years, a discussion I haven't even really broached yet.
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