Recession

[Flopper]

The probability of recession is very high. The Fed is planning on a 1.25% increase in interest rates by the end of the Year and Powell said the Fed is is prepared to continue raising rates in 2023 until inflation is under control. So what do I do about investments in the equity market? Here is my opinion:

• If you are planning on retirement within the next 2 or 3 years, you should keep working and wait for a recover to retire.
• If you trade stocks and you have been beating the indexes, continue doing what you are doing. If you haven't switch your holding into solid growth stocks and stick with them till the market recovers.
• If you have a retirement plan and you are putting a fixed amount monthly, continue to do so. You will be glad you did when the market recovers

Every investor is different so you should discuss your goals and and your holdings with your financial advisor but keep in mind the market is going to recover but no one knows when.

 

[Concerned American]

The probability of recession is very high.

Common definition of a recession is two successive quarters of negative growth in the GDP. We are firmly in a recession. The DOW closed yesterday lower than Trump left it.

 

[mudwhistle]

The probability of recession is very high. The Fed is planning on a 1.25% increase in interest rates by the end of the Year and Powell said the Fed is is prepared to continue raising rates in 2023 until inflation is under control. So what do I do about investments in the equity market? Here is my opinion:

• If you are planning on retirement within the next 2 or 3 years, you should keep working and wait for a recover to retire.
• If you trade stocks and you have been beating the indexes, continue doing what you are doing. If you haven't switch your holding into solid growth stocks and stick with them till the market recovers.
• If you have a retirement plan and you are putting a fixed amount monthly, continue to do so. You will be glad you did when the market recovers

Every investor is different so you should discuss your goals and and your holdings with your financial advisor but keep in mind the market is going to recover but no one knows when.

We're already in a recession.....you Dems don't want to call it one till after you lose Congress.

 

[Manonthestreet]

Been putting the new 401 money into cash Option for almost a yr

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Been putting the new 401 money into cash Option for almost a yr

well that is stupid.

 

[Flopper]

Common definition of a recession is two successive quarters of negative growth in the GDP. We are firmly in a recession. The DOW closed yesterday lower than Trump left it.

No, The two quarters of declining GDP definition is a rule of thumb that does not officially define a recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business-Cycle Dating Committee, which certifies and dates U.S. business cycles, defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.”

Usually, this rule of thumb holds, but not always. Today, jobs are still plentily with an unemployment rate of 3.7%, strong retail sales, industrial production is rising, as is consumer spending etc. The worst is yet to come.

 

[Manonthestreet]

well that is stupid.

Why I'm ahead of the market.

 

[Flopper]

We're already in a recession.....you Dems don't want to call it one till after you lose Congress.

Not according to The National Bureau of Economic Research They certify and dates of our business cycle. So when you google past recessions, you are seeing the NBEC dates. According to NBEC we are still in an economic expansion even without GDP growth.

Looking at past recession that were preceded by high inflation, we can expect a particular painful one. Unemployment will be rising along with prices. After a few months we should see prices starting to fall but those months can be pretty painful.

 

[Concerned American]

No, The two quarters of declining GDP definition is a rule of thumb that does not officially define a recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business-Cycle Dating Committee, which certifies and dates U.S. business cycles, defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.”

Usually, this rule of thumb holds, but not always. Today, jobs are still plentily with an unemployment rate of 3.7%, strong retail sales, industrial production is rising, as is consumer spending etc. The worst is yet to come.

Yeah, we are in a recession--the worst is what Biden and the democrats want to see--depression.

 

[Flopper]

Been putting the new 401 money into cash Option for almost a yr

Keep in mind the market is looking 12 mos head. It looks like it has already taken into account a recession. Don't know anything about your financial status but I have found increasing 401K monthly contributions after the market has fallen over 10% has paid off well over the years.

 

[Flopper]

Yeah, we are in a recession--the worst is what Biden and the democrats want to see--depression.

Not according the economists that define recessions. Unemployment, consumer spending, factory production is still positive. Keep your fingers crossed and they just might turn negative by next month.

 

[Flopper]

Yeah, we are in a recession--the worst is what Biden and the democrats want to see--depression.

Yeah, we are in a recession--the worst is what Biden and the democrats want to see--depression.

I think you guys should be claiming we are in a depression. A recession would likely be over before the presidential election but a depression would cover both the midterm and presidential election. And if you can convince people that the election was stolen from Trump you should be able to convince them that we are in a depression.

 

[Concerned American]

Not according the economists that define recessions. Unemployment, consumer spending, factory production is still positive. Keep your fingers crossed and they just might turn negative by next month.

Your numbers are not agreeing with the numbers I have seen. Good for you. I'll stick with my info sources.

 

[Concerned American]

I think you guys should be claiming we are in a depression. A recession would likely be over before the presidential election but a depression would cover both the midterm and presidential election. And if you can convince people that the election was stolen from Trump you should be able to convince them that we are in a depression.

I'm not interested in convincing anyone of anything. I'm beyond that. The democrats are going to do what the democrats do and the same goes with the republicans. One thing I am sure of is there are going to be some changes in about 45 days.

 

[Manonthestreet]

Keep in mind the market is looking 12 mos head. It looks like it has already taken into account a recession. Don't know anything about your financial status but I have found increasing 401K monthly contributions after the market has fallen over 10% has paid off well over the years.

We are still on an elevator down ride

 

[mudwhistle]

No, The two quarters of declining GDP definition is a rule of thumb that does not officially define a recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business-Cycle Dating Committee, which certifies and dates U.S. business cycles, defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.”

Usually, this rule of thumb holds, but not always. Today, jobs are still plentily with an unemployment rate of 3.7%, strong retail sales, industrial production is rising, as is consumer spending etc. The worst is yet to come.

Rule of thumb that never applies to Democrats.
Since Democrats are communists they'll him and haw about it and never admit that we are in a recession.....and have been all year.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Why I'm ahead of the market.

A 401k buys shares in funds, when the market is down you get more shares for the same amount of money. So, unless you think the market will never come back, you are just shooting yourself in the foot.

Take BCSIX for example. It averages above a $100 a share consistently even going as high as $130. Right now I am getting 13 shares for what I used to get 7 or 8. When the market goes back up, I now have more equity than I would have if the market had not gone down.

You on the other hand just have cash that has just lost value due to inflation.

 

[Manonthestreet]

A 401k buys shares in funds, when the market is down you get more shares for the same amount of money. So, unless you think the market will never come back, you are just shooting yourself in the foot.

Take BCSIX for example. It averages above a $100 a share consistently even going as high as $130. Right now I am getting 13 shares for what I used to get 7 or 8. When the market goes back up, I now have more equity than I would have if the market had not gone down.

You on the other hand just have cash that has just lost value due to inflation.

How much are you going to lose on the further ride down? I'm working from the premise Joes market has quite a ways down to go. Anything I buy now will lose substantial value and take yrs to recover its purchase price,

 

[Harpy Eagle]

How much are you going to lose on the further ride down? I'm working from the premise Joes market has quite a ways down to go. Anything I buy now will lose substantial value and take yrs to recover its purchase price,

I do not agree with that premise, as I think it is most of the way down. It might go a bit further, but not much, in my opinion.

With that, I am losing little if what I am buying now goes down a bit more. Any loss I have if I sold would be on that which was bought a year or more ago.

We have a minimum of 10 years till we retire, so both the wife and I have have increased our 401k contribution during this market downturn to be able to take advantage of the lower share price. When the market comes back we will be far better off than we were before the drop.

It took roughly 23 months from the bottom of the market for it to return to pre-recession values in 2008. Even if it takes that long, we will still be far better off than if we just held cash.

 

[Manonthestreet]

I do not agree with that premise, as I think it is most of the way down. It might go a bit further, but not much, in my opinion.

With that, I am losing little if what I am buying now goes down a bit more. Any loss I have if I sold would be on that which was bought a year or more ago.

We have a minimum of 10 years till we retire, so both the wife and I have have increased our 401k contribution during this market downturn to be able to take advantage of the lower share price. When the market comes back we will be far better off than we were before the drop.

It took roughly 23 months from the bottom of the market for it to return to pre-recession values in 2008. Even if it takes that long, we will still be far better off than if we just held cash.

Well good luck. I am somewhat closer than you probably with less margin for error as I didnt acquire a 401 until late in the game. It has done very well. If I buy anything it would be more company stock, its easier to read than mutual funds.